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本帖最后由 newsoft 于 2014-2-6 10:07 PM 编辑
Sunspots & Stocks
There is a correlation between the Sunspot Cycle and the Stock Market: Since 1933-34 all bull market highs (= start of a bear market) occurred 0-13 months after the peak of the Solar Cycle (List):
HIGH of Solar Cycle #17 in 4/1937 = bear market starts in the Dow Jones 8/1937 (+4 months)
HIGH of Solar Cycle #18 in 5/1947 = bear market starts in the Dow Jones 6/1948 (+13 months)
HIGH of Solar Cycle #19 in 3/1958 = bear market starts in the S&P 500 8/1959 (+6 months)
HIGH of Solar Cycle #20 in 11/1968 = bear market starts in the S&P 500 12/1968 (+1 month)
HIGH of Solar Cycle #21 in 12/1979 = bear market starts in the S&P 500 11/1980 (+11 months)
HIGH of Solar Cycle #22 in 7/1989 = bear market starts in the S&P 500 7/1990 (+12 months)
HIGH of Solar Cycle #23 in 3/2000 = bear market starts in the S&P 500 3/2000 (+0 month)
In early 1968 the quasi gold standard was more or less abolished, which lead to the inevitable expansion in money supply and inflation. Since that time every solar top made a bubble burst, in 3 of the 4 cases even in the same or following month which is incredibly precise:
HIGH of Solar Cycle #20 in 11/1968: stock market bubble bursts 12/1968 (the S&P 500 high of late 1968 was only exceeded nominally but not in real terms for decades)
HIGH of Solar Cycle #21 in 12/1979: commodity bubble bursts 1/1980
HIGH of Solar Cycle #22 in 7/1989: Japan bubble (stocks & real estate) bursts 12/1989
HIGH of Solar Cycle #23 in 3/2000: stock market bubble bursts 3/2000
The more sun-spots, the more important for financial markets. The solar super-storms of 1859, 1921 and 1989 went along with inflation peaks (Credits: Manfred Zimmel):
September 1-2, 1859 (highest inflation 1810-1910).
May, 1921 (highest inflation 1860-1940).
1989 (highest inflation since mid 1960s).
The Peak of the current Sunspot Cycle #24 is projected for spring 2013 (HERE). More related online resources: Solar Cycle Progression - Monthly SSN - Calculated annual average SSN - Solar Cycle start – end months, mid-point
In 1965 Charles J. Collins presented his investigation on "The Effect of Sunspot Activity on the Stock Market" (reprinted in the March 1966 of the 'Cycles' Magazine). His theorem is (briefly stated) the following:
(1) An important market peak has been witnessed or directly anticipated when, in the course of each new sunspot cycle, the yearly mean of observed sunspot numbers has climbed above 50.
(2) In each solar cycle, the largest stock market decline, in terms of percentage drop, comes after the sunspot number, on an annual basis, has climbed above 50.
补充内容 (2014-2-6 10:35 PM):
HIGH of Solar Cycle #24 in 9/2013 |
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