OMG, 牛牛出大事了，

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牛牛出事了，

Elephant

kkkk

让牛踢疯了

NG_NM

黄雀之前：
RUT 30%！INTERNATIONAL FUND, 即A股， 欧股等， 占70%！
高人呀

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kkkk

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嘿嘿,  咱的黑匣子探测器很灵光

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大盘雷慢时刻即将出现

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double double

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这次大盘将在一个月内崩盘， 大跌目标 SPX １７００

葡萄柚

这么吓人， 1700？  如果真跌去那里也好， 现在这样的高位， 涨个几十点又得回调， 还不如一下跌干净

coexist

dumdum 发表于 2014-4-8 11:09 PM
这次大盘将在一个月内崩盘， 大跌目标 SPX １７００

跌到1700不叫崩，至少到1000，崩一半

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这个顶也折腾了快一年了， QE大泡泡破裂， 崩一半的可能性也存在, 崩一半 need１-２ 年

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Billion-dollar investor Warren Buffett is rumored to be preparing for a crash as well. The “Warren Buffett Indicator,” also known as the “Total-Market-Cap to GDP Ratio,” is breaching sell-alert status and a collapse may happen at any moment.

So with an inevitable crash looming, what are Main Street investors to do?

Buffett Wary If Ratio Market Value Of Stocks Greater Than 100% Of GDP

The nation’s preeminent investor, Berkshire Hathaway's Warren Buffett, has often said that probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment is the ratio of the total market capitalization to the total dollar value of the GDP. And any time that valuation stands at more than 100% of the total goods and services in the economy means it is time to be wary about common stocks. It’s a logical conclusion that the economic output of a country and the earnings of its companies, and so their valuation, should bear some relationship to the attraction of investing or not investing.

The ratio today is 115.1% of the $16 trillion GDP. In the year 2000, just before the market cracked in the dot-com bubble, the market capitalization was 183% times the GDP, according to a chart published recently.

And in 2007, just as the housing credit bubble was bursting, the ratio was 135% times the GDP. These are all times when the stock market looks overvalued.

Then, the buying point for stocks was reached in March 2009 when the ratio of market cap to GDP was only 73%. The numbers were somewhat different in 1929 when the market cap already was in decline and amounted to 81% of GDP, but fell precipitously to 25% of a ruinous GDP in 1933.

By comparison, in the bear market of 1975 the ratio of stock valuation to GDP was 75%, definitely a buy signal if you were Berkshire Hathaway. Even a better opportunity was 2009 when the ratio of stock valuation to the economy fell to 50%. It was shooting ducks in a barrel and Buffett said so publicly several times.

Then there’s the perhaps misplaced optimism in the market. Margin buying of stocks using borrowed money rose to $445 billion last month, an all-time record. And this is after the market rose 30% plus during 2013 despite the scarcity of excessive profitability in most household name multinational corporations. Rather, earnings are expected to revert to the mean, which should run parallel to the low single digit growth of many companies.

Example: Procter & Gamble, one of the most esteemed household product companies, is giving advance notice its top-line revenue growth should fall by 2% from 3% to 5% to 2% to 4%. Don’t expect excessive profitability. Don’t expect another run in the stock. Same predicament for Coca Cola and the grocery and restaurant chains that serve the middle class.

Most stock market peaks have coincided with an elevated level for the stock market to GDP ratio. It was the way to see the dot-com bubble arriving as well as the approaching storm of the housing and credit bubble in 2008, which severely damaged the infrastructure of Wall Street. As Buffett has said, “The ratio has certain limitations in telling you what you need to know. Still, it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.”

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Warning: Stocks Will Collapse by 50% in 2014

Tuesday, 08 Apr 2014 08:58 AM



It is only a matter of time before the stock market plunges by 50% or more, according to several reputable experts.

“We have no right to be surprised by a severe and imminent stock market crash,” explains Mark Spitznagel, a hedge fund manager who is notorious for his hugely profitable billion-dollar bet on the 2008 crisis. “In fact, we must absolutely expect it."

Unfortunately Spitznagel isn’t alone.

“We are in a gigantic financial asset bubble,” warns Swiss adviser and fund manager Marc Faber. “It could burst any day.”

Faber doesn’t hesitate to put the blame squarely on President Obama’s big government policies and the Federal Reserve’s risky low-rate policies, which, he says, “penalize the income earners, the savers who save, your parents — why should your parents be forced to speculate in stocks and in real estate and everything under the sun?”

Billion-dollar investor Warren Buffett is rumored to be preparing for a crash as well. The “Warren Buffett Indicator,” also known as the “Total-Market-Cap to GDP Ratio,” is breaching sell-alert status and a collapse may happen at any moment.

So with an inevitable crash looming, what are Main Street investors to do?

One option is to sell all your stocks and stuff your money under the mattress, and another option is to risk everything and ride out the storm.

But according to Sean Hyman, founder of Absolute Profits, there is a third option.

“There are specific sectors of the market that are all but guaranteed to perform well during the next few months,” Hyman explains. “Getting out of stocks now could be costly.”

How can Hyman be so sure?

He has access to a secret Wall Street calendar that has beat the overall market by 250% since 1968. This calendar simply lists 19 investments (based on sectors of the market) and 38 dates to buy and sell them, and by doing so, one could turn $1,000 into as much as $300,000 in a 10-year time frame.

Editor's Note: Sean Hyman Reveals His Secret Wall Street Calendar in This Controversial Video, Click Here

“But this calendar is just one part of my investment system,” Hyman adds. “I also have a Crash Alert System that is designed to warn investors before a major correction as well.”

(The Crash Alert System was actually programmed by one of the individuals who coded nuclear missile flight patterns during the Cold War so that it could be as close to 100% accurate as possible).

Hyman explains that if the market starts to plunge, the Crash Alert System will signal a sell alert warning investors to go to cash.

“You would have been able to completely avoid the 2000 and 2008 collapses if you were using this system based on our back-testing,” Hyman explains. “Imagine how much more money you would have if you had avoided those horrific sell-offs.”

One might think Sean is being too confident, but he has proven himself correct in front of millions of people time and time again.

In a 2012 interview on Bloomberg Television, Hyman correctly predicted that Best Buy would drop down to $11 a share and then it would rally back up to $40 a share over the next few months. The stock did exactly what Hyman predicted.

Then, during a Fox Business interview with Gerri Willis in early 2013, he forecast that the market would rally to new highs of 15,000 despite the massive sell-off that was haunting investors. The stock market almost immediately rebounded and hit Hyman’s targets.

“A lot of people think I am lucky,” Sean said. “But it has nothing to do with luck. It has everything to do with certain tools I use. Tools like the secret Wall Street calendar and my Crash Alert System.”

With more financial uncertainty that ever, thousands of people are flocking to Hyman for his guidance. He has over 114,000 subscribers to his monthly newsletter, and his investment videos have been seen millions of times.

In a recent video, Hyman not only reveals the secret Wall Street calendar, he also shows how his Crash Alert System works so that anybody can follow in his footsteps (click here to watch it now).

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Goldman's Kostin Sees 67 Percent Chance of 10 Percent Market Correction

Wednesday, 09 Apr 2014 07:45 AM




Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s David Kostin has some good news, and some bad news.

First, the bad news. There’s a good chance the U.S. market will see a 10 percent drop sometime during the next 12 months. Well, as far as precision goes, “good chance” is not good enough for a quant like Kostin, so he gives an exact probability: 67 percent odds of a 10 percent retreat from a peak in the next 12 months. (Editor's Note: A quantitative analyst, or quant, is a person who specializes in the application of mathematical and statistical methods – such as numerical or quantitative techniques – to financial and risk management problems.)

Though quant work can be complicated, his rationale is actually quite simple — the market has gone way too long without a so-called correction, or a drop of at least 10 percent from a peak. The biggest declines from highs this year and last year were about 6 percent, and it’s been 22 months since the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index saw a 10 percent drop. Mix in a little fancy math, and Kostin ends up with 67 percent odds we’ll see a correction in the next 12 months.

Now for the good news, if you can call it that: He still expects the market to end the year higher, though not by much. Kostin is sticking with his year-end S&P 500 forecast of 1,900, according to a note to clients. That implies a gain of less than 2.8 percent for the year and less than 3 percent from Monday’s close. In other words, a relatively flat market given the ferocity of the gains seen in this bull run.

Next year will be better in Kostin’s view, with a gain of 11 percent to 2,100 from his 2014 forecast. The S&P 500 will add another 4.8 percent on top of that to 2,200 in 2016, he predicts.

Ho Hum

Since the beginning of the year, Wall Street strategists have held firm to forecasts for a ho-hum market this year following last year’s 30 percent rally in the S&P 500. The average projection on Jan. 3 called for a 5.8 percent gain to 1,955 in 2014, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg. By April 1, the mean forecast had only moved up six points to 1,961.

It’s important to note in here that these oracles sort of missed the boat last year. The average estimate on Jan. 2, 2013, called for a 7.6 percent gain by the end of the year, while the S&P 500 ended up jumping 30 percent to 1,848.36. Citigroup Inc.’s Tobias Levkovich was closest at 1,615, still more than 200 points off. Kostin forecast a 2013 close of 1,575, almost 300 points off.

So if Wall Street strategists were meteorologists, last year they called for a few inches of snow and the market ended up getting a blizzard. This year, they’re calling for a dusting and so far they haven’t been too far off — no accumulation.

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发信人: rim (可乐会捂帮帮主), 信区: Stock


标  题: 熊熊们，准备好了吗？


发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Apr  9 10:33:47 2014, 美东)



牛牛们又死皮赖脸冲上来了。

等牠们再靠近悬崖一点，等牠们腿再软一点，咱就冲上去猛踹一脚。。。


.

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WK, SPX  -31 疯了

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-鲍勃-皮萨尼——“熊已经上路了，但是人们都以为自己还有机会。”

-高贝塔这个概念居然可以正反两面用

-Facebook谷歌苹果齐挫 科技股再次大跳水 生物技术板块血流成河

-问题是，为什么联储觉得有必要演得更加鸽派？

-联储死猫反弹失败，股指的结局凄凉

-需要认清的一点是，通常解释市场走势的文章都是废话