恒一 发表于 2014-4-21 07:25 AM
After 10 days up, there is an indicator which is called over bought. So stock market is actually l ...
Your assumptions conflict each other...if each day is independent they don't effect each other, if what happen in past effect future probability, they aren't independent.
For SPY, it closed green consecutively for the following 6 days: 4/14/14, 4/15/14, 4/16/14, 4/17/14, 4/21/14, and 4/22/14. 4/18/14 was Good Friday on which market was closed.
(1/2)^6 = 1/64 = 1.563%
SPY closed red on 4/23/14. It seems worthy betting PUT on the high point on 4/22/14 (the 6th green day), I actually did and made some profits on 4/23/14.