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楼主: 恒一

简单概率

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发表于 2014-4-21 09:19 AM | 显示全部楼层


恒一 发表于 2014-4-21 07:25 AM
After 10 days up, there is an indicator which is called over bought. So stock market is actually l ...

Your assumptions conflict each other...if each day is independent they don't effect each other, if what happen in past effect future probability, they aren't independent.
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发表于 2014-4-21 09:40 PM | 显示全部楼层
jamesmith 发表于 2014-4-21 09:19 AM
Your assumptions conflict each other...if each day is independent they don't effect each other, if ...

适用不相关数字。
假设十位数,
第一位是1,概率是1/10
第二位还是1 的概率还是1/10,第二位是2,3,。。。都是1/10
。。。
以此类推。
连续10位是1的盖率和其他数字没有任何不同。
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 楼主| 发表于 2014-4-24 08:53 PM | 显示全部楼层
For SPY, it closed green consecutively for the following 6 days: 4/14/14, 4/15/14, 4/16/14, 4/17/14, 4/21/14, and 4/22/14. 4/18/14 was Good Friday on which market was closed.

(1/2)^6 = 1/64 = 1.563%

SPY closed red on 4/23/14. It seems worthy betting PUT on the high point on 4/22/14 (the 6th green day), I actually did and made some profits on 4/23/14.
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发表于 2014-4-24 11:28 PM | 显示全部楼层
股市的概率不是这样计算的。
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