什么时候应该贪婪(谈股市抄底) - 转载

enrontyco

在股市里大家都知道，在别人恐慌的时候，就是买进的最佳机会。

以下是衡量恐慌程度的三大指标(Vix, which has become meaningless nowaday, put/call, bullish/bearish Investment 
advisors spread).

1. Bullish/bearish Investment advisors spread

Over the past few weeks is that the % of Bearish Investment Advisors is once
again 10% greater than the % of Bullish Investment Advisors (point A). 
Since the mid 1990's this has been a very rare occurrence as shown by the 
chart below as there has only been "4" of them (points B) prior to this 
latest occurrence. Also note that each one was eventually followed by a 
substantial oversold rally (points B to C). 

The last time the % of Bearish Investment Advisors was 10% more than the % 
of Bullish Investment Advisors was in mid March (point E) which was followed
by a 14% rally in the S&P 500 over a 44 day period (points F to G).


2. Vix(该指标现在已经钝化)

Now the bigger question is has there been enough fear generated among 
investors to allow for a bottom to develop in the near term? If we take a 
look at a weekly chart of the Volatility Index (VIX) so far the VIX has only
risen up to the mid 20's (point I). Keep in mind the last three times the
S&P 500 made a significant bottom (points J) which was then followed by a 
substantial oversold rally (points J to K) the VIX rose well above the 30 
level (points L). 



3. Put/Call

If we look at a 5 Day Average of the Put to Call Ratio, in the past, when
it has risen at or above the 1.2 level (points M) this has been followed by
an oversold rally (points N to O) of varying magnitudes. Currently the 5 
Day Average of the Put to Call Ratio is still well below the 1.2 level. 




虽然Bullish/bearish investment spread 已倒extremely bearish level. 但是Vix
和Put/call还是不够恐慌。 如果有一天股市大掉，Vix升到底35 或35以上，那时就是
放心捡钱的大好机会(No longer a good indicator)


[ 本帖最后由 enrontyco 于 2008-10-30 00:32 编辑 ]