Dumb money vs. smart money

csw2002

Another 37.3 millions inflow into SH, 30.9 millions outflow on SDS. spxu is flat. Looks like we r getting a decent bottom reading here with the amount of SH inflow totalling almost 180 millions over the last 4 days. OEX PCR final adjusted is neutral at 0.98.

qianshui

thanks for updating.

csw2002

Oh well, the bottom call is premature. All short funds are flat today and OEX PCR closed at 2.02 - marginal sell. Now it's back to my original thesis at the beginning of the week - we need capitulation to have a sustainable bottom. Otherwise we will just have 1 to 2 day choppy rallies and then sell off again.

cfayahoo

csw2002 发表于 2016-1-14 03:32 AM
Oh well, the bottom call is premature. All short funds are flat today and OEX PCR closed at 2.02 - m ...

thanks

csw2002

Onn Friday, after the close, Oex pcr final is 1.73 neutral. 49.7 millions inflow on sh, 51.3 millions outflow on sds, 40 millions outflow on spxu. BTW, yesterday saw an 22 millions outflow on SH - which was a nice tell for today's severe decline. I still don't see panic based on TRIN and VIX, though option has finally reached panic level. My guess based on the inflow on SH and outflow on SPXU and SDS is that we have reached a short term low with bounces next week - only to fail again and retest the low and break it. Only after that, we will get a massive panic low with Vix, Trin, various PCR, close and volume closing at the right level.

cfayahoo

csw2002 发表于 2016-1-15 09:06 PM
Onn Friday, after the close, Oex pcr final is 1.73 neutral. 49.7 millions inflow on sh, 51.3 million ...

csw2002

wow, i have got $114.1 millions inflow today in SH. that's good news for bulls...but at the same time, i have got 20.9 millions inflow into SDS. but spxu is flat. OEX pcr final is at 1.11 neutral, but big warning sign for another leg down is that oex oi pcr is 2.25 - back above 2

csw2002

Between yesterday and today, dumb short SH has added 90 millions and OEX traders are buying calls on a massive scale with 0.5 and 0.78 OEX PCR for yesterday and today. SDS and SPXU continues to see outflows. Right now, in terms of sentiment, it looks a lot like late Sept 2015. However,we are in a bear market and surprise is to downside despite highly favourable dumb money adding shorts and smart money going long. Hence I'd be careful with long here and definitely look to take profit (if there is any profit on long). If you have trapped long, this may be an opportunity to get out at a smaller loss or break even.

austinjoe

csw2002 发表于 2016-1-21 06:42 PM
Between yesterday and today, dumb short SH has added 90 millions and OEX traders are buying calls on ...

Thanks!

acoust

georgeyn

barleytea

I have a questions: where can I get this OEX PCR number? do you have a link? many thanks.

csw2002

OEX PCR Final closed at 0.97 - though excluding Jan wk4, OEX PCR final is 1.53 - still neutral. OEX OI PCR, excluding expirying Jan wk4, stands at 1.75. What is more concerning is that SH has seen 33.4 millions outflow on Friday while SDS also saw 13 millions outflow with SPXU flat. At cash close, OEX PCR was also a quite bearish 3.45. While I expect we are going to rally to possibly retrace 1/3 to 1/2 of the decline from the top, we may get an immediate pullback first.

五谷

lilili

thanks

csw2002

Tuesday saw OEX traders becoming very bullish with OEX PCR final at 0.49. At the same time, the dumb money SH saw 15.9 millions inflow - that's usually a perfect signal as smart money got long and dumb money got short. Despite the sell-off overnight, eventually US equity market climbed up and closed almost at Monday high. Wednesday saw further inflow into SH totalling 39 millions. OEX PCR final closed at 1.7 - neutral though at cash close it was a more bearish 2.5. OEX traders tend to hedge ahead of FOMC and hence the less bullish. However, overall, OEX traders are substantially more bullish than they were with OEX OI PCR closing at 1.75, much less than they were back in Dec when OEX OI PCR peaked over 3.0.

Can I have a show of hands who is still reading this thread. With the departure of Moreliver from this forum, I see the readership dropping substantially. I always publish the same set of data at Wreckbeach's wechat group. If only a few are still not in wechat, it might be easier to just contact Wreckbeach and join his group.

acoust

csw2002 发表于 2016-1-27 02:34 AM
Tuesday saw OEX traders becoming very bullish with OEX PCR final at 0.49. At the same time, the dumb ...

If possible, please keep posting here. We don't have wechat, can't join his group.

RespectRisk

ysc

csw2002

No MF data today as the feed is currently down. OEX PCR final is neutral at 0.89. However, intraday, OEX PCR was very bearish, and cash closed at 2.7. Coupled with high ISEE data (i.e., retail crowd bullish), it was a good tell for a down day.