高盛推荐的25只股票

源济

华尔街日报  2015年 09月 22日 15:36


图片来源：Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg News

最近的形势对选股来说并不是最有利的。不过，高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)刚刚公布了一份包含25家公司的名单，在越来越多的股票走势趋同之际，名单中的公司可能带来极高的回报。

跻身前三甲的是：永利度假(Wynn Resorts Ltd.)、娱乐公司维亚康姆(Viacom Inc.)和折扣零售商Dollar Tree Inc.。根据高盛给出的价格目标，这三只股票的上涨潜力分别为89%、52%和44%。

高盛公布这份名单之际，适逢市场不确定性加剧之际个股收益率离散度近几周一直在下降。由于中国的剧烈波动以及围绕美国联邦储备委员会（简称：美联储）何时将加息的担忧，股票相关性上升至2011年以来的最高水平。

高盛称，以下25只股票有着高离散度，表现或强于大盘。

高盛写到，离散度反映出每只股票对公司基本面和风险的敏感程度。离散度较高的公司更有可能对公司特有的情况、而非宏观经济环境做出反应，堪当触底反弹股票首选。

除列表中有着高离散度和上行潜力的股票之外，高盛还列出10只具有高离散度和下行潜力的股票。其中包括Transocean Ltd.、Expedia Inc.和Cablevision Systems Corp.，该行写到，几只股票的下行潜力分别为68%、30%和29%。

Kristen Scholer

jamesmith

looking at WYNN for months, gonna start a position around $60 to $65 this week

当时惘然

jamesmith 发表于 2015-9-22 03:09 PM
looking at WYNN for months, gonna start a position around $60 to $65 this week

thanks a lot for 源济.

WYNN might go lower .
I won't buy it even hit $60.
Why don't you buy the right side with uptrend ?

The only buy reason is last 5 years in a row, WYNN went up in Oct...

good luck, YMYD

jamesmith

当时惘然 发表于 2015-9-22 04:25 PM
thanks a lot for 源济.

WYNN might go lower .

to be honest, I suck at technical analysis and know very little about trends, I have no idea when trend will turn.
I like to think of myself as a value investor and I am thinking about buying because:

1) even though Wynn is highly leveraged, its debts look sustainable. It just terminated 7 3/4% 2020 mortgage note early by getting 5 1/2% 2025 senior notes.

2) $4 Billion+ Wynn Palace in Macau will be finished first half of 2016 (Steve Wynn said in last earning call he estimate it to be done by end of March 2016). Spending will drop once this is done, and Wynn Palace will give Wynn a bigger share of Macau market.

3) http://www.dicj.gov.mo/web/cn/in ... sal/2015/index.html
Macau gambling market as a whole is getting consistent 35% to 39% drop, it is not getting worse. If we extrapolate this trend to next year, with these numbers, Wynn can still be profitable and survive the storm.

4) Wynn market cap = $6.12 billion, Wynn Macau market cap = $52.7 billion HKD = roughly $6.8 billion USD
Wynn owns 72% of Wynn Macau, so that's roughly $4.9 billion; that leaves $1.22 for Wynn Las Vegas. That is a very cheap price to get these Vegas assets, they still represent 1/3 of Wynn EBIDTA and is very stable business (yes they lack growth).

I didn't buy yet, so lower it goes, better price I will get.

Happy Investing

当时惘然

jamesmith 发表于 2015-9-23 04:32 PM
to be honest, I suck at technical analysis and know very little about trends, I have no idea when  ...

from TA, WYNN might hit $40 - ...
good luck...

Jennyahwu

当时惘然 发表于 2015-9-23 04:56 PM
from TA, WYNN might hit $40 - ...
good luck...

how do u get $40 ?

jamesmith

bought some at $59.89 before closing. I am being cautious and adding slowly.

An interesting way to buy it is to get Wynn Macau (1128 HK) instead of WYNN. You will miss out Vegas asset and the potential Boston Wynn, but at the end, it is the result of Macau operation that matters the most.

源济

jamesmith 发表于 2015-9-24 02:04 PM
bought some at $59.89 before closing. I am being cautious and adding slowly.

An interesting way  ...

WYNN今天大爆发了，恭喜！

jamesmith

源济 发表于 2015-10-2 10:45 AM
WYNN今天大爆发了，恭喜！

多谢yuanji老大
听说是有rumor天朝政府要support Macau, 可能会放松政策

davidino

如果把这名单看成是做空的股票，怎样？
赌一赌年底的结果，谁有兴趣？

davidino

高盛=要你们 “高位盛股，底部放股”

davidino

留此存照

源济

davidino 发表于 2015-10-3 01:19 PM
如果把这名单看成是做空的股票，怎样？
赌一赌年底的结果，谁有兴趣？

好主意！我对个股没有研究，不预设立场，由我来做庄吧。规则如下：

（1）以10月2日收盘价为基准，12月31日收盘价结束，涨5%，多方胜；跌5%，空方胜；涨跌5%之间，则不分胜负。
（2）可以选25股里的任意一股下注，每股下注200胡币，胜则赢400胡币，负则200胡币没收。
（3）大家在10月5日开盘前下注，并转账给bank9。

源济

年终高盛大赌局

http://www.hutong9.net/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=297978

davidino

源济老大果真有兴趣？ 太好了！ 我们赌一赌吧！

源济

davidino 发表于 2015-10-3 09:28 PM
源济老大果真有兴趣？ 太好了！ 我们赌一赌吧！

好啊，请到这里跟帖、下注，并转账给bank9，谢谢！

http://www.hutong9.net/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=297978

当时惘然

jamesmith 发表于 2015-10-2 11:05 PM
多谢yuanji老大  
听说是有rumor天朝政府要support Macau, 可能会放松政策

      

厉害。 恭喜。

jamesmith

当时惘然 发表于 2015-10-5 10:30 AM
厉害。 恭喜。

运气好而已。。。本来准备要接近Wynn Palace 完工才会有利好消息出来的