Emini Trader Method Evaluation

老TK

Emini Trader Method Evaluation

The evaluation of trades-trading decisions is a critical component of the trading progression from learning to trade to profitable trading  BUT what is this evaluation to be base upon?  Should this evaluation be base upon the results of the individual trader's results OR should it be based upon the method setups that occurred-didn't occur around the same time, regardless of what the trader did-didn't do?

I would suggest that trade evaluation should be base on method, where a breakout chase non-method trade winner is no better than doing the same trade as a loser AND in actuality may be worse - as the person has been rewarded for taking a 'bad' trade.

trading non-method trades

 

BUT the evaluation goes past trader -vs- method - the evaluation goes to the trader's defined base setup-selectivity criteria WITH the starting point being the 'most' selective base setups being traded only.

how many of MY defined setups occurred

what percentage of these did i see realtime

what percentage of these did i 'trade'

how many other 'trades' did i do

were these non-defined trades even method base - let alone selective base

did i do more non-defined trades than defined trades

WHY?

 

Trader Setup Definition - This Is MY Setup

 

Is this a work ethic problem

Is this a study-learning approach issue

Is this a method selective setup understanding issue

 

Is This A Commitment Issue

Trying to learn trading-trading method is difficult for a number of reasons.  Trading involves the learning of concepts which are unlike those that have been studied-learned before AND coupled with that, trading involves the learning-practice-execution of skills -vs- the 'book' memorization of definitions like that which would be done to take a test at school.

The learning of concepts-skill execution is certainly the more difficult in general AND then these difficulties are additionally magnified, because inherent in their learning is THE issue that they also take a LOT of additional time.  However, the typical person doesn't want to have to devote this time - they want immediate gratification - they want to play in the game without having to work out in the gym.  It sure is a lot more fun to play in the games, than it is to spend all of those hours and hours of extra pain-sweat in the gym that are necessary to prepare-improve. 

Hey coach, what do you mean that I don't get to play in the next game?  Sorry kid BUT you missed 50% of your free throws in the last game AND I never saw you spend any extra practice time this week trying to get better.  IF that's all the more that you care THEN I am not going to have you play.  Do you think that you are going to learn how to shoot free throws better with 1 second to go in the game, when we are losing by 1 point AND the other team fouled you because you are so bad?

AND this means paper trading without setups - not real money trading too soon.

WHY are you worrying about trading on a simulator at this time until you have YOUR base setups defined and consistently seen realtime-consistently able to chatroom post-discuss 'accurately' when they occur?  I would suggest that this is totally unnecessary at this point AND actually a mistake since you are making many bad habits since you don't have 'financial risk' - I will suggest that this is even worse because you are losing your 'learning capital'.

Committment is more than time and effort, committment may also be a psychological issue - committing to the defining-describing of a specific method base setup component combination AND calling it MY setup.  I see this as a far different issue than learning trading method - one that is related to trading psychology AND the issues that one brings with them to trading - the outcome being one that keeps the person from going forward with their 'learning to trade progression'.

Consider some emails related to this:

Is that base - is what base?  Is that selective enough for me to trade - is what selective enough for you to trade?  These are supposed to be YOUR setup definitions that you have taken from the method right side base setups AND added additional selectivity components to 'fit' what you are working on at this time - how can I answer the question IF you won't define the setup-tell me what I am supposed to be answering?

You keep sending me these charts with markings and some description-some comments – some correct-some incorrect – varying types…BUT you will never send me a number of charts of the same essential setup-setup component combination AND say --- these are MY BASE SETUPS – this is what I want to be working on now – this is what I AM going to be posting in the chatroom.

Commit to something --- say this is one of MY BASE SETUPS – these are the setup components including what is additionally selective since I know I can't start as a continuous trader – here are 5 different chart examples of the same setup -vs- these isolated single charts describing that specific market time-specific potential trade.

I WANT to see 5 different charts with YOUR base setup that you intend to post in the chatroom - marked AND method 'language' described with the specific setup components and price being traded AND then I want to see 5 more this weekend --- AND I want all 10 of these to be very similar as setups. 

Are these questions about YOUR base setups - meaning that every time that this SAME setup combination occurs YOU are going to be taking the trade - OR is this about an isolated-different trade that you took that was a losing trade and you are asking a question about what you did wrong?  You need to understand that I want to be helping you evaluate YOUR specific base setups - trying to explain whether I think you have misread the trade from the intended setup - you aren't letting me help you do this since I don't know what YOUR setups are supposed to be.  Remember this 'should' be about YOUR setups which 'should' be far more selective than method base setups that aren't as selective BUT that are being done by a continuous trader-a trader with far more screentime-experience AND has progressed further with their trading.

The 'learning to trade plan', at the beginning AND at the time which is most critical, often becomes one of frustration and ineffectiveness - a situation where the person just can't-doesn't progress. 

This can-does go on for months - how much time is no substitute for how that time is spent.  AND the most unfortunate thing that is occurring - the person doesn't understand that these problems may be about their approach -vs- their ability - they aren't getting to the point where they can evaluate their trading ability.  They have never committed to THEIR beginning selective base setups AND learned how to progress further with them.

---

Trading Method Setups-Trades Done -vs- Individual Trader-Trades

yellow circle initial reverse - no trade AND no initial base in that area

green dot buy

left-right price failure break

right side first continuation after shift-reject initial reverse price

into-through 2 purple square triple break

120t synch

left side diagonal breakout potential

 

 

Trader questions-comments on 2 losing trades that were part of 2 winning swings.

chart2 orange dot - chart3 yellow dot

I'm not trying to 'disprove' the method, I'm trying to understand how situations like these two are handled, I think I've described the trade setups properly.

Are you going to say that because of the size of the previous swing, that the trade setups should be 'filtered out' AND IF IF IF you were in a trade, then that trade should be held for continued movement?

yellow circle initial reverse - no trade

AND i couldn't have reacted real time to the blue line-yellow dot sell as initial base BUT didn't want to regardless against the 120t

red dot sell

yellow line break with 120t initial reverse

52t mex lag BUT have failure break combination to offset

right side purple square triple break

left-yellow squares

left side diagonal breakout potential

 

your trade1-orange dot

was right side fast chart only timing - i had no trade there yet

I don't know what you mean by exceeding 6-7 ticks initial risk - are you saying that every trade you take you only take that amount of risk whether it is price-chart mode relevant?  IF yes that is your personal management decision AND there are going to be trades that you are flat that then continue with a hold of price-with a hold of the chart mode.

In this case you went flat on a trade that was too early for me as a continuous trader - thus too early for someone who should be a more selective trader at this time. 

BUT regardless - WHY not the re-entry at 120t red dot2 as a matched price failure with diagonal breakout potential - definitely base AND a trade i did as an addon with a 15 tick initial partial. 

You made a comment that you aren't trying to disprove method, which I am not saying that you are doing, as we both know that can't be done BUT there is a bigger point involved - there were 2 method-selective base setup winning trades available on this swing AND 1 of these was available after your fast chart sell couldn't be held. 

AND what about the buy on chart1 which was also method-selective base - did you do this trade WHICH was both more base than your losing trade AND IF both trades had been done - the pair was profitable.  to me that is what a method discussion is about - the evaluation of method-selective base setups -vs- a discussion of isolated trades that are done that are actually only right side-fast chart base - that doesn't include the non-trading of selective base.

 

your trade2 - yellow dot

I see no setup here.  What you are calling 2nd time through a focus line with mex flow after a pmd high double top - I see as a pmd high double top that went sideways into consolidation AND this is in essence a pivot trade against the 120t with no failure break component to it - this is not a consolidation base trade setup.

 

I ended up selling the red dot - the timing was a shift-reject of the yellow line which had been my focus line in the area - with mex flow AND into-through the 2 purple squares triple break. 

consolidation base1 = pivot shift-reject with mex flow into-through consolidation triple break

consolidation base2 = pivot break2 with mex flow into-through consolidation triple break

Although there was a trade setup that was base for the market condition - this is not what we refer to as a selective base setup AND someone who should be trading more selectively should be concentrating on working with the core method-selective base setups -vs- trying to trade through consolidation AND this is the case even if/when this means missing a winning trade. 

老TK

Evaluate your trading method that you just learned before using to battle field.
Above just an evaluation example, we can use it to evaluate our old and new system.
[ 本帖最后由 老TK 于 2008-11-28 18:58 编辑 ]

Bencat

Thank you!

Poo