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Trade Journal
2/5/2007
euro1: consider the blue centerline-yellow dots
- would you regard any of these as base setups - which dot would you
view as the 'best' trade setup?
yellow dot1 - green dot1 [yellow dot2]: IF you
were trading the euro you would be aware of the left side down swing
AND you would be aware of the left side price/dark blue line at
12957.
this combination wouldn't let me buy the yellow dot
as an initial reverse at the blue centerline - regardless that i
would be trading into/through the double channel hold as a triple
break - the trade would be right into 12957 which hasn't been setup
to break. NOTE - IF this had been a resumption sell AND the
directional trade - i would have done a similar short setup.
after the reject of 12957 then the centerline
hit/higher low - i did the green dot buy again into/through the
double channel AND the dark blue line which has been tested-hit.
red dot [yellow dot3]: the purpose of including
this chart is to point out the yellow diagonal line synched with the
blue centerline AND that IF you take this trade as an initial
reverse - you are taking the trade as the resumption of the left
side direction WHICH is through the diagonal. similar to
making the note above regarding the yellow dot through the double
channel/triple break IF it was a resumption sell - i tried this
initial-resumption sell because of the diagonal break which is also
a continuation indication.
chart1: consider the chart to the right of the
yellow circle - is this a base buy setup - IF no where is a base buy
setup? now consider the rectangle which starts at the initial
reverse - is this a base sell setup - IF no where is a base sell
setup?
chart2: consider the chart to the right of the
yellow circle - is this a base buy setup - IF no where is a base
buy setup?
 
these charts weren't included to discuss the trade
setups - they were included to discuss a very difficult trading
situation today AND also point out how this same situation was
making it hard to figure out how to get into a trade in time to
partial. this was a situation that i struggled with a number
of times today AND consequently my trade quantity was below average
- there were a number of potential trades that just weren't tried
AND there were a number of trades that were thus held longer.
i tried to point this situation out at the beginning
of the day in the chatroom AND compare it to a very similar
situation as 2-1 AND that was with regards to a key price
point/floor number location - on these charts the issue was the 2-2
low 809.60 AND s1 810.30 - which was only 7 ticks apart.
chart1
yellow circle-yellow dots - green dot: what i
kept finding as my problem was the 'need' to trade more aggressively
than i wanted to OR not being able to get into a trade 'in time' to
partial. i don't want to go long here on a congestion ledge
counter pivot trade buy through 809.60 AND i also don't want to buy
either of the blue line-yellow dot trades right into s1 as
resistance - yellow dot1 i don't have a setup to consider anyway.
yellow dot2 is a trade that i would often try as a
resumption trade to the yellow circle BUT instead because of s1
- the trade that was done was the green dot as a s1 reject - that
trade didn't partial BUT yellow dot2 would have.
red dot: this wasn't as big of an issue
regarding the entry - the trade was done as a break-reject of s1 as
resistance in a down market BUT it was an issue getting a partial -
as 809.60 hit and immediately rejected-retraced back to the s1.
yellow line wedge - blue dot: i held my short
on the retrace for a s1/yellow line reject. IF flat i would
not sell the reject from yellow square1 - i have no setup there -
BUT i would have shorted the blue dot after the double hold/wedge
break. i also mentioned that if i had gone flat the red dot
sell because it move a couple ticks higher and got whipsawed - i
would have re-entered that sell at the blue dot.
chart2
yellow circle- yellow dot: i am still short
from the chart1 red dot = -810.00 +809.00/+809.10/trail. i
don't want an initial buy at the yellow circle AND i also don't want
the yellow dot buy at 809.60 regardless of it being right side base
- i want to be short still AND regardless i don't want this entry
AND the 'straddle' issues of a price point like this.
blue dot - green dot: i went flat 809.80 on the
retest-reject of 809.60 - BUT even though i am flat i didn't want to
buy the blue line-blue dot right into s1/this is essentially the
same trade-decision as the blue line-yellow dot2 on chart1.
AND again the same problem regarding the amount of room that has
gone buy from the initial entry not done - having to trade more
aggressively than i wanted to OR needing enough continuation to
partial on a s1 reject -vs- trading into s1.
remember that the issue is not taking a counter trade
- it is taking this trade right into a 'known' resistance point
and/or having room to take the trade into s1 and partial there.
AND also like chart1 - the blue dot buy which would have been done
without s1 wasn't AND then the green dot s1 reject buy didn't go far
enough to partial = +810.40-.50f 1220ct -810.20-.10f reverse on the
s1/ledge break WITH flow.
Trade Journal
2/6/2007
chart1: consider your
open price specifics AND the nature of the open which was
essentially 2 way range search between the floor pivot AND the
overnight high - where were the base setups AND where was the
'best' setup?
open price specifics: a
centerline related to the 812.10-812.20 pmd from yesterday's
last hour reverse - the blue centerline on this chart at 812.40
was a focus line used from today's trading. the top blue
line 813.20 was next resistance from yesterday/above the 812.80
overnight high AND in this location the floor pivot was
support.
blue dot1 - red dot1:
double hold at the yellow squares 812.90 is a hold of the
812.80 overnight high - blue focus line break2 after the spike
bar BUT i have no way to react to this real time on the up
bar-reversal bar back through the line -with no mex flow to be
'looking' for this entry. the trade done was the
pause-reject of the line. i regard this as a base-open
trade with the double top 'start point'.
green dot: there is
nothing that i can do at the yellow circle besides an indicator
reverse right into the channel/price resistance - i went flat
on the break. the green dot was a pause-break of the
focus line - mex is still flowing up so the issue of trading
into a pmd isn't there at the time. this is a first
continuation trade AND in that context has base components of
mex and the focus price - i find that this is typically a
difficult trade for people to see - i think it's because of
more directed right side focus where this line really isn't
apparent.
blue dot2 - red dot2:
of all the setups on this chart - i actually like the blue dot2
the best AND that is because of the dark blue squares - the
start point of the blue line resistance AND the lower high
double top retest - THEN the lower high WITH mex flow [ttm has
already flipped] - sell the blue focus line break. i also
realize that this tends to be a more difficult trade for people
to think - again i think it's a right side focus -vs- seeing
the structure of how this setup comes together. the trade
was entered at the red dot was simply where the trade filled -
as i missed my entry at the blue dot.
chart2: what are the
key prices on this chart AND what-where were the base setups
related to these prices?
key prices: floor pivot
AND the blue left-right centerline at 810.50.
red dot: combination
floor pivot break-blue focus line WITH mex flow down - this is
a floor pivot reject-failure sell - this is base. i
mentioned this in the chatroom AND want to mention it again -
those bars 2 ticks above the floor pivot instead of exactly at
the floor pivot does not mean this isn't a reject of the floor
pivot - NOT with mex flowing down while the line is testing.
green dot: pmd low AND
no pmd swing-swing reverse - we have gone into consolidation
AND there is no related setup on the break of the blue
centerline after the double bottom. there is no mex flow
for a pivot entry AND there is no triple range break setup - no
trade setup to try. the green dot was done as a shift of
the blue line area to support WITH the timing of this trade
being into the 2 yellow squares as a triple range break setup.
again note - this is a consolidation break setup AND not a pmd
related setup - as the pmd was a transition into consolidation.
chart3: this trading
period is one of s1 'straddling' AND thus any trade tried
should be a s1 break-failure setup - did such a trade setup
occur on this chart - IF yes where?
yellow dot: nothing to
consider - this is a non-setup floor number break
red dot: this is a s1
break-failure setup - the setup is after a double top-lower
high WITH mex flow down AND into the 2 yellow square triple
break.
green dot: this is also
a s1 break-failure setup - in this case a break2-mex flow
setup.
i do know that this is not
our basic break2 line drawing entry pattern - this is more
similar to the trade journal from the weekend and the
pmd-break2 BUT there is no way to bring the yellow line above
the pmd into this particular trade - we can't because it would
be a trade into s1 -vs- a break-failure of s1.
dark blue dot: this
being said - the green dot is break2 of the line WITH mex flow
AND it's not right into next/left resistance. i realize
this is not as easy to see as the red dot because of the triple
break AND that trade was with direction. IF flat i would
try the dark blue dot as a first continuation trade - a shift
of the dark blue line through the 2 dark blue squares as an
across the chart triple top break - right side ledge break.
AND IF the trade was done in the chatroom you know you would
hear me whining about having to do a breakout entry instead of
a trade into the breakout - nonetheless this would be a time
that i tried - particularly with room into the dark blue
rectangle as resistance.
Trade Journal
2/7/2007
open: where were your
open price specifics - what-where were your open trade AND
how was price related?
price specifics:
814.10-813.90 which was shifted to the 814.20 blue line for the
open trade. also the dark blue line overnight higher low
to the 812.90-813.00 shiftline discussed on the update.
red dot: double channel
reject focus line break WITH mex flow. the first
continuation setup is the dark blue line matched price - enter
at the dark blue dot as a break2 instead of break1 of the line
- this is where the line fails as support AND with the mex
extreme i have the issues that the first break is a trade into
a pmd at this support point. i didn't do this as an addon
AND really should have given it a try because of the mpf setup
- IF this was a combination swing direction-market direction
setup i wouldn't have hesitated.
yellow dot: pmd low AND
retrace to the 812.90-813.00 shift line and a 'ledge stall' -
to go long here would be a ledge breakout. regardless of
mex flowing up here the break still has to be considered as an
initial reverse AND the mex flow is a function of the stall AND
not from a momentum build like you get on the retrace in a
break2 setup. i had no setup on a sup:res ledge break AND
also held the trailing short.
chart1: price moved
down from the open AND then transitioned into consolidation as
it tested the floor pivot. besides the floor pivot where
were the key prices during this period - what-where were your
trades AND how was price related-how was the setup related to
the market condition?
key price: from the
open update the prices that you 'know' in this area are the
dark blue lines at 812.60-812.10.
green dot: initial
reverse then retrace to 812.10 which rejected to 812.60 - i
decided to do this as an 812.60 break - i wouldn't have tried
this trade yet if not for the way the 812.60 price lines
matched up.
blue dot: this is
really a better setup than the one that i did - IF i had just
exited at the green dot instead of trying the reverse - this
would have been my next trade as there was no sell to have
considered doing. the green dot move went back to the
813.00 price AND rejected back down to 812.10 again THEN gave a
break2-mex flow at the blue dot WHICH was also into the 'across
the chart' triple top break.
there is no way to see this
setup inside of fast chart consolidation UNLESS you were
focused on price specifics AND how this is also a price action
setup besides being right side base. inside consolidation
and/or a counter swing trade - i want more than right side only
setups.
chart2: price has moved
to the highs BUT any attempt to break r2 AND shift it to
support is rejected - thus causing the market to remain in
consolidation. consider the blue line-yellow dots - do
you regard either of these as consolidation break setups - also
considering that the trade IF done is counter? IF yes -
which dot AND what is the setup - IF no did you do a sell after
yellow dot2 and what was the setup?
 
120t yellow circle - red dot:
the purpose of chart2 and the questions is to point out chart2b
AND the setup clarity that would never be evident using the
fast chart in consolidation. neither of the yellow dots
is a consolidation setup - neither is a line break2-mex flow
AND into a triple range break.
however there is a very good
setup that triggers during the time at the 120t red dot - a
setup components that i can't see IF only using the 52t:
(1) blue line break2 after the ttm flip (2) trendline break2
(3) r2 shift-reject (4) with mex flow AND a ttmf hook (5) with
diagonal break continuation potential.
red dot2: dark blue
line-red dot is a base pmd-failure addon. now go 'look'
for this setup with a fast chart only focus - can you find it?
the setup on the 52t only is a 817.00 focus line break as ttm
resumes - it looks like a line break inside congestion AND
without mex flow as part of the setup - realtime i would not
have considered the addon without seeing what this looked like
with the 120t.
Trade Journal
2/8/2007
open: we spent the
overnight breaking open update setups AND instead of these
being available for trading - we found ourselves dealing with
an open in the area of support ahead of yesterday's closing
breakout. what-where was your open trade AND what was the
setup? what-where the trades done during this period -
are you short on the last bar of this chart - IF no where was
your next trade?
yellow dot - red dot1:
i couldn't sell the floor pivot break at the yellow dot - i
have no setup. unfortunately a floor pivot break2 setup
didn't occur AND i had to try the red dot first continuation as
a floor pivot reject which filled 817.20 - so i couldn't get a
partial at the 816.50 low which held.
dark blue circle - dark blue
dot: i didn't consider buying the dark blue circle on the
initial reverse AND then didn't do the dark blue line-dark blue
dot as a reverse which was a directional decision - the setup
is right side base with 'enough room' to the floor pivot that i
could manage a reject there.
red dot2: i never did a
buy on the swing - after the dark blue dot i went flat AND then
didn't want to do a floor pivot break buy. there was an
initial reverse which was a combination blue line
retest/diagonal line hit - no setup on the initial BUT THEN
with the lower high - i re-entered the sell on break2 of this
area. with the setup directional AND into the diagonal -
this setup had breakout potential AND gave a move through
816.50 AND a 2x partial at 815.70.
why this chart: (1)
open trade entry problems and losing trade (2) directional
decision not to do a trade that would have been a winning trade
after the losing trade - always a 'bad' feeling (3) re-enter
trade that had breakout potential AND regardless of the 2
previous issues and 'the want' of a partial - the partial was
allowed to expand and it turned into an 18 tick p1 - which was
bigger than the 15 ticks [5t * 3 contracts] on the losing
trade.
chart1: where are the
key prices for trading AND what is the market condition during
this period? what-where are the setups base to the market
condition - what-where were your trades?
key prices: yellow line
816.50 initial low as shift line resistance - dark blue focus
line which synchs with 815.80 from the open update chart - s1
814.50.
red dot: nothing was
done on this initial indicator reverse - still short AND then
with the resumption back through the focus line - i did the red
dot as an addon. this trade was done into/through the
yellow square double bottom with room on a break-test of the s1
to partial - with out the setup component i would not have
tried the setup.
dark blue circle - yellow
dot: -815.50 +814.70/+814.70/trail - this was the addon
AND the trailer was exited at 815.50 on the initial reverse -
still short the trailer. after the yellow square hold AND
focus line break - i have a right side base setup through the
channel and the blue line-yellow line resistance - nothing
done.
green dot: blue line
break into/through the 2 hits of the yellow line as a triple
break as first continuation to the yellow dot AND an immediate
loser. is this a base first continuation setup that was a
loser OR a 'bad' trade? it was a bad trade - i blew it -
i reacted to the yellow dot not being done AND missed that this
was a trade into a pmd at resistance as a counter trade.
why this chart: (1) to
discuss a 'bad' trade that i did AND point out an issue of
seeing that you aren't in a winning trade AND missing a
critical component related to the 'next' trade - that instead
of keeping you flat - became a losing trade. now what -
which is no doubt something that separates different traders -
do you take your loss AND go on without 'steaming' OR do you
continue to dwell on what you did AND miss a winning trade-take
another 'bad' trade?
chart2: what-where the
trades done during this period - are you short on the last bar
of this chart - IF no where was your next trade?
blue dot - yellow dots:
the blue dot is a setup that i was fine with taking - an
indicator reverse back through 816.50 price AND the blue
line-yellow square triple diagonal AND nothing was done because
this trade triggered with the 9:30ct eia natural gas release
AND i don't 'chase' news.
yellow dot1 - ledge break as
first continuation - nothing done. yellow dot2 - floor
pivot break2 - nothing done. i am always going to have a
problem with yellow dot2 as a counter trade AND without mex
flow or rollback lag. this is a setup that i can view as
a pmd-failure continuation AND no that the mex rollback is
imminent on the break - BUT not at the floor pivot as pmd
resistance.
red dot - blue dot: the
red dot was done as the blue line break2 which was viewed as a
floor pivot reject-failure. the blue dot is a matched
price failure of the yellow line AND as a triple break of the 2
yellow squares. the squares placed where they are/viewed
as a triple break - as these are the 2 hits-tests of the yellow
line that synch with the retest-failure of the floor pivot
resistance OF WHICH the floor pivot reject-failure is an
important component of any trades being done here.
one of the additional keys to
this setup is the continuation potential we see from matched
price failures - this line 'should' be support AND when it
fails left side longs are being exited AND an trader joe who
has tried to buy the pullback to support at the line - is
having their trade stopped out.
why this chart: (1) to
discuss a situation where a trade that you would typical take
can't be done because of news AND the subsequent issues trying
to enter the trade when there is no pullback - it sucks when
this happens and you keep seeing the move going without you BUT
that's the way it goes sometimes. not all winning swings
have an entry for you AND it sucks a lot more to take a trade
that you aren't committed to that turns out to be a loser AND
then further impacts the 'next' trading decision AND compounds
the problem. (2) the sell setup-trigger was done without
issue - that issue continuing to be mad about missing the
winning buy because of the news AND turned out to be a very
good trade = -817.60 +816.40/+815.80/+816.00 = 46 ticks of
profit -vs- a 40 tick daily range at the time.
Trade Journal
2/9/2007
Instead of a chart-trade discussion for the journal today - I have 2
discussions on trading psychology AND it's relationship-interrelationship
with trading method. These pages have been 'rebuilt' from prior
training sessions AND include the text-audio from them.
Is it overstated when it is said that trading psychology as the reason for
trading losses is 90% trading psychology, or
any similar high overweighting of trading psychology over trading method? To say this also
seems to be saying that regardless of method, a trader with control of all
emotional issues would be a profitable trader, and I can't accept that as the
case. If a trader was able to trade 'any' method profitably they would
do so because of (1) their understanding of the method's inherent strengths
and weaknesses (2) their ability to maximize these strengths and minimize the
weaknesses. But regardless, how could a trader ever overcome any amount
of trading psychology related issues without this complete understanding of
method and how they intend to trade it, and thus the resulting confidence that
they will be trading profitably.
Trading psychology has
become so widely 'discussed' and 'promoted' in books, articles, consultants,
etc - that it has become available as any necessary excuse for losing and not
taking responsibility, as a trader keeps trying to trade against the market
and against themselves. For instance, keep trying to buy the bottom of a
strong downtrend, or keep trying to take indicator trades inside of a range
that isn't wide enough to provide a partial profit; is this method, or is this
psychology?
You have a great trading method and trading plan. You
have profitably paper traded, and you now start trading real money AND
everything falls apart, your method and plan no longer work. Everything you do
is wrong, and you continually lose money - you come to the point where you
can't even trade any more.
We continue to discuss the importance of trading
AND planning; you can't trade without a plan that is both
consistent with your personality and with a given trading
methodology. The plan must then further define the
components of the trading methodology in order to develop
specific trading setups, as well as a way to manage the
risk/reward of those setups.
The objective of the trading
method plan is to develop a plan that includes your ‘core’
repetitive setups that you have established a positive
expectancy, that you can recognize realtime AND that you have
accepted the implications of in terms of related risk/reward.
BUT this might not be enough - there still may be issues that
are related to emotion AND fear that circumvent the
implementation of the method plan.
Like a trading methodology plan
being a key to making the transition from method to paper
trading to realtime trading, making a trading psychology plan
would be just as significant to making the transition from
trader action/trader psychology to trading method/trader
trading. The objective of the trading psychology plan is
to develop a plan to deal with the emotion/fear issues that
either circumvent the method implementation OR keeps a trader
from trading at all. Take the trader's actions and
give a honest assessment/understanding of a given action, and
then define a 'setup' for replacing the action. | 
狗仔卡
发表于 2008-11-28 07:02 PM
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
喧嚣卡
变色卡
发表于 2008-11-28 07:10 PM
It's too easy for Cobra
hard to follow. Thanks for your work!
姥姥的，他是真的还是假的哈？
发表于 2008-11-29 12:37 AM
