RELENTLESS BUYING OF LONG TREASURIES CONTINUES

gardener2000

THE INDEX BUYING NEEDS ARE OVER, BUT THE MASSIVE DEMAND FOR TREASURIES
CONTINUES.. WHILE STOCKS ARE DOWN CLOSE TO 200, THE DEMAND IS COMING FROM
EITHER CONVEXITY BUYING NEEDS OR REAL FEARS OF DEFLATION STRATEGIES.. THIS IS
NOT A FLIGHT TO QUALITY AS CDS SPREADS ON TREASURIES CONTINUES TO WIDEN. NEW
RECORD LOWS ON TREASURY YIELDS WILL BE THE MANTRA OF THE WEEK.. 10 YRS HAVE HIT
2 7/8LEVEL ON THE WAY TO 2.5..LONG BONDS HAVE REACHED 3 3/8 LEVEL AND COULD
GO THROUGH 3%..

gardener2000

WHILE 10 YEARS ARE NOW TO 2.8..UP 1 1/8 POINTS, LONG BONDS ARE ON FIRE UP 3 1/8
POINTS..YIELDS DO NOT MATTER.. THE LONG BOND IS THRU ANY HIGH WE CAN REMEMBER
AND WE HAVE SEARCHED BACK TO EISENHOWER YEARS... IT IS A NEW BALL GAME.. WHILE
STOCKS ARE UNDER PRESSURE, IT IS STILL NOT A FLIGHT TO QUALITY TRADE AS SWAPS
AND THE YIELD CURVE CONTINUE TO FLATTEN.. THE FREIGHT TRAIN IS MOVING AND NO
ONE WANTS TO GET IN ITS WAY...DEFLATION AND CONVEXITY ARE TODAYS WORDS

LONG TREASURIES ARE ON A MISSION.

 

WITH 30 RATE MORTGAGES NOW AT 5.5.\, WITH THE CHANCE TO REACH 5% OR
LOWER, THE HOUSING MARKET MIGHT ACTUALLY COME ALIVE...

多吉

原帖由 gardener2000 于 2008-12-1 10:09 发表 WHILE 10 YEARS ARE NOW TO 2.8..UP 1 1/8 POINTS, LONG BONDS ARE ON FIRE UP 3 1/8POINTS..YIELDS DO NOT MATTER.. THE LONG BOND IS THRU ANY HIGH WE CAN REMEMBERAND WE HAVE SEARCHED BACK TO EISENHOWER YEAR ...

Do you have any faith in it if housing comes back on the dip of mortgage rates?

I don't. The core of housing recovery would be lying with the rise of job market.

You know, that is a remote dream in current eco turmoil.

I'll short into any faked XHB rallies...