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楼主: Cobra

[灌水] 11/21/2015 Weekend Update

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 楼主| 发表于 2015-11-21 10:22 AM | 显示全部楼层


csw2002 发表于 2015-11-21 04:50 AM
Cobra, data is wrong. Ndx commercial hedgers covered 11108 short mini contracts and added 1787 lon ...

Updated data. Still saying it's top. It's combo meaning combine all NDX futures trading together.
1.png
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 楼主| 发表于 2015-11-21 10:24 AM | 显示全部楼层
biscorpion 发表于 2015-11-21 03:31 AM
请问老蛇,这个图上最近两周大盘的涨跌好像没完全显示出来?

怎么没有反映出来?图上的指数是NYA,不是SPX。SPX快要all time high了,NYA还早呢,这也说明有人用SPX等大指数来粉饰太平。

点评

Great point. Thanks Cobra.  发表于 2015-11-21 11:04 AM
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发表于 2015-11-21 11:11 AM | 显示全部楼层
Cobra 发表于 2015-11-21 10:24 AM
怎么没有反映出来?图上的指数是NYA,不是SPX。SPX快要all time high了,NYA还早呢,这也说明有人用SPX等 ...

至少我的holding反映这个事实。
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 楼主| 发表于 2015-11-21 11:40 AM | 显示全部楼层
dsp 发表于 2015-11-21 11:11 AM
至少我的holding反映这个事实。

所以现在你要小心了,不要太牛。
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发表于 2015-11-21 11:41 AM | 显示全部楼层

SPX 2015-11-13

Cobra 发表于 2015-11-21 09:24 AM
怎么没有反映出来?图上的指数是NYA,不是SPX。SPX快要all time high了,NYA还早呢,这也说明有人用SPX等 ...

You're right that NYA is used as stock index not SPX on Institutional buying and selling chart. This is such a narrow based rally trying to make ATH to get as more small investors into market as MMs could.
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发表于 2015-11-21 11:46 AM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 austinjoe 于 2015-11-21 12:27 PM 编辑
Cobra 发表于 2015-11-21 09:22 AM
Updated data. Still saying it's top. It's combo meaning combine all NDX futures trading together.


Thanks for updating. This chart looks only show the 2nd week of Nov down move and missing last week rally in NASDAQ comp index. Hence I think it may have some delays.
They used to post these charts free to public long time ago. Do you happen to see the Confidence Index chart there? Sometime it's a good for top / bottom reference in mass psych.
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 楼主| 发表于 2015-11-21 12:45 PM | 显示全部楼层
austinjoe 发表于 2015-11-21 11:46 AM
Thanks for updating. This chart looks only show the 2nd week of Nov down move and missing last wee ...

2.png

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发表于 2015-11-21 01:03 PM | 显示全部楼层
Cobra 发表于 2015-11-21 11:40 AM
所以现在你要小心了,不要太牛。

谢谢。我的确在减仓位。
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发表于 2015-11-21 01:36 PM | 显示全部楼层
Cobra 发表于 2015-11-21 11:45 AM

Thanks a lot Cobra! It does show smart money tip up and dumb money tip down -- a topping sign on SPX. They use these 2 difference charting, Confidence Spread may be to make chart more easy to read.

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发表于 2015-11-21 01:54 PM | 显示全部楼层
austinjoe 发表于 2015-11-21 01:36 PM
Thanks a lot Cobra! It does show smart money tip up and dumb money tip down -- a topping sign on S ...

图上看smart money从九月份起一直在卖,dumb money一直在买.但是最近smart money转头向上了,不是positive sign?
还是熊眼看熊,牛眼看牛?
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发表于 2015-11-21 02:14 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 austinjoe 于 2015-11-21 01:17 PM 编辑
babyruth 发表于 2015-11-21 12:54 PM
图上看smart money从九月份起一直在卖,dumb money一直在买.但是最近smart money转头向上了,不是positive  ...


Smart money is generally used by lager fund for hedging. Dumb money most time follow the trend. The difference matters more as when SM-DM reaches extreme point, then market tends to change direction. This chart shows early Nov, 2015 when SPX hits 2016, the delta reaches lowest point recently.

IMHO, the direction of delta of SM vs DM indicts SPX direction, when SM reaches its high and DM hits its low, it's time for SPX turn up, while when SM hits low and DM hits high, it's time for SPX turn down. I think this charts is a good support for Cobra's "所以现在你要小心了,不要太牛。"

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发表于 2015-11-21 10:34 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2015-11-21 11:02 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2015-11-22 12:19 AM | 显示全部楼层
This is hilarious.  Fox news said that Facebook kept deleting this guy's account because his name is PHUC DAT BICH....  

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