Trading Plan for 03_29

mitwkwk

Cobra 发表于 2016-3-29 01:45 PM
南京老乡个个都是好银！为南京银感到骄傲！

小杆子，老杆子！

oda

胡同绝对应该支持幸运星, and belittle those likely wanking posts!!! luckystar  not only posts what he trade, also posts his gentlemanship

Cobra

oda 发表于 2016-3-29 03:50 PM
胡同绝对应该支持幸运星, and belittle those likely wanking posts!!! luckystar  not only posts what he ...

ysc

Cobra 发表于 2016-3-29 02:51 PM

wow,  at least 5   from you.

Jennyahwu

hold put until spy back to 199.5

sniffer

我喜欢相信自己的人。我更喜欢做自己的神，分享我的感觉，并不是想别人同行壮胆， 只想听见更多的旋律，从中找到自己的音符。

HappyMoney

美眉妹

luckystar2006

赚钱大帝 发表于 2016-3-29 03:26 PM
我说2句公道话，王老猪买call对，但买out of the money call绝对应该批评，长期下来保你亏损没商量,这个不用 ...

Well, there isn't really anything to criticize about my trade because it's just a small trade, which I don't mind to lose and I'm not losing yet.  Take yesterday's trade for instance, I knew that my winning rate was >90%, so I went in with 300 puts before market close which I made some nice profits in this morning.  As for this afternoon's trade, I already said that it was an emotional trade which I didn't go in big like 300-1000 puts.  Besides, NOBODY can win 100% all the time where we end up to lose sometimes in trading business, which I'm not exceptional.  How I survive until these days for 11-year is because I know how to manage risks well and knowing when and where to make big/small bets v.s. my reliable/non-reliable signals.

luckystar2006

oda 发表于 2016-3-29 03:50 PM
胡同绝对应该支持幸运星, and belittle those likely wanking posts!!! luckystar  not only posts what he ...

Well, I don't get emotional from tradings at all.  So, no need to worry about my feelings.  However, what making me to feel very uncomfortable is to see anyone losing his/her money because of following me, which is why I keep saying that my analysis is for market direction only, while you guys use your own signals to trade.  Other than that, I'm just an average Joe trader like you guys who keep learning to improve while making livings.

mitwkwk

赚钱大帝 发表于 2016-3-29 03:26 PM
我说2句公道话，王老猪买call对，但买out of the money call绝对应该批评，长期下来保你亏损没商量,这个不用 ...

这个我同意一半，最近out of money的call和put贬值都好快，call好像稍微还好点。in the money应该安全点。但是没准王老猪堵得就是叶奶奶讲话后要大涨

赚钱大帝

luckystar2006 发表于 2016-3-29 05:29 PM
Well, there isn't really anything to criticize about my trade because it's just a small trade, whi ...

首先谢谢老哥首次回复我的帖子，那我就再说2句：
1.spy 的put不要买，因为贵，当然是和call比较，你要是sell put我反到没太多意见，其实不只Spy,整个市场的put都比call贵
所以本身买put输的概率都是65%以上，加上溢价，绝对输概率在75%以上，真实统计是80%左右（cme统计，需要我有证据）
2.不是不可以买put,要买那些valotality大的，spy是指数基金，volatility最多是个平均值，个人看法不可买，可以sell call, 各种option spread,做future,或者直接short股票，但就是不要直接买put

TNA

Luckystar

oda

luckystar2006 发表于 2016-3-29 05:35 PM
Well, I don't get emotional from tradings at all.  So, no need to worry about my feelings.  Howeve ...

So yes,  weeks ago  I learn from you to Use RSI 7 to watch VIX, I checked 10 years chart, it is rare no lower low ahead which form a N.D ( I said this at your yesterday' s spread), I made my own decision and gain, I must say 多谢!

oldpigwang

mitwkwk 发表于 2016-3-29 06:18 PM
这个我同意一半，最近out of money的call和put贬值都好快，call好像稍微还好点。in the money应该安全点。 ...

怎么玩Out of money option 或 in the money  option ,
关键在于你的market timing.
玩1个礼拜和玩2天  to bet a market big move,
战略方针，战术是完全不同的。
贬值快的那个， 窜起来更让你惊叹。
不可同语。

补充内容 (2016-3-29 08:32 PM):
感觉会有window dressing.

oldwolf

赚钱大帝 发表于 2016-3-29 06:55 PM
首先谢谢老哥首次回复我的帖子，那我就再说2句：
1.spy 的put不要买，因为贵，当然是和call比较，你要 ...

1.卖options需要资金大， 所以资金有效利用率不如买options。卖比买赚钱是对的。
2.你说的统计put不如call赚钱，那是因为总的来讲是多年牛市，所以这个统计没有意义。
3.个股volatility大的，put /call也就贵， etf波动小也就便宜。玩起来个股和etf本质是一样的。

oldwolf

赚钱大帝 发表于 2016-3-29 06:55 PM
首先谢谢老哥首次回复我的帖子，那我就再说2句：
1.spy 的put不要买，因为贵，当然是和call比较，你要 ...

另外直接short股票的风险恰恰是最大的。

luckystar2006

赚钱大帝 发表于 2016-3-29 06:55 PM
首先谢谢老哥首次回复我的帖子，那我就再说2句：
1.spy 的put不要买，因为贵，当然是和call比较，你要 ...

I really appreciate your inputs and be honest with you, my option knowledge is limited to only buy and sell calls/puts.  Also, when I registered options trading with my broker, I only registered for level 2 access, which means I can only buy and sell calls/puts.

A big thank to your sincerely opinion which I'll definitely upgrade my option knowledge in nearby future.

赚钱大帝

oldpigwang 发表于 2016-3-29 07:08 PM
怎么玩Out of money option 或 in the money  option ,
关键在于你的market timing.
玩1个礼拜和玩2天  ...

玩option otm玩timing?你可以赢几次，但长久下来一定是输的，你的赢率远远小于去赌场下一注，赌场比如轮盘压大小，你的赢率48%，你玩option otm赢率只有10%，就算你赢4倍，接下来你要输5到9次，还是亏的，这是概率，不用不信，你可以paper trade,看我说的对不？你要是real time trade,那我更欢迎。
千万别赢了一次，就否定概率，炒股，炒期货可以玩下timing, option otm玩timing能长期赢的，目前还没听说过，所以最好虚心接受批评，option玩in the money的，还勉强说的过去，玩out of the money的，想都别想，那是赔钱速度最快的一种玩法

赚钱大帝

luckystar2006 发表于 2016-3-29 07:27 PM
I really appreciate your inputs and be honest with you, my option knowledge is limited to only buy ...

希望共同进步，其实你基础很好啊，上升潜力巨大