More Rally to come??? om Lee: High yield rally holds key

bokchoy888

rightonmoney

coexist

风行过

he is always a bull, so he might be bias in his view.
\
On the other hand, there are couple of things worth to be noted.
1) he mentioned fed tightening the interest rate, should have a strong dollar, but we got a weaker dollar. That is true, for NOW. but will it always be true?
2) credit market should always have a big impact to equity market, I think we all over look at it, which we should not.

bokchoy888

风行过 发表于 2016-5-27 10:40 AM
he is always a bull, so he might be bias in his view.
\
On the other hand, there are couple of th ...

IMO, dollar had rebounded and gold is pulling back, market had already moved ahead the FED. With or without the rate hike, in June,market may move up anyways to the all time high, which can be a surprise to the logic most people have.

My guess the real drop may come in July , Aug.

My plan , above April's high go long again. Right now, just in and out quick trades. Below spx 2070, maybe some serious shorts

What's your plan?

luckyfox

如果你在ARIL'S HIGH上做多，你最多吃个尾巴上的毛。1小时走了一波，还有一波，不知道到了2111以后这个口会不会闭合，闭合就有回调，大方向是涨的话，也要等回调过了再买涨，或者考虑买跌吃个小波段

luckyfox

就算在1800的时候，也没走过现在这么牛的走势，一看就是人为的走势。从2025到现在，1小时根本就没有回调过，这是不可能的。涨了100点也不回调吗？

风行过

conservative might be 2110 above long, below 2040 short. past 2110 then 2134 upper channel major resistant.

I was looking at adjusted SPY chart. it is very different from unadjusted

for now I think a pull back right at here somewhere, but then more push up. I think 2110 might be the target first.

风行过

coming back to the topic video, I think the dollar might eventually go stronger. But whether it will drive gold lower, it hard to say. cause Gold could be a fear factor play in the market.

bokchoy888

luckyfox 发表于 2016-5-27 11:07 AM
如果你在ARIL'S HIGH上做多，你最多吃个尾巴上的毛。1小时走了一波，还有一波，不知道到了2111以后这个口会 ...

Agree, maybe, from now on , one step at time is the only way.
On the other side, my logic is , if you simply looking at chart, betting on the downside is the obvious trade . I found lots of time, the obvious trade is the wrong trade. Plus, market is indeed climbing wall of worries. Maybe 2200 and beyond, I don't know.

Deep down and inside, my inner demon is longing to short.  I am hoping/waiting for the massive fall to the downside but I know MM will always strike surprisingly as most people are not ready.

风行过

"Deep down and inside, my inner demon is longing to short.  I am hoping/waiting for the massive fall to the downside but I know MM will always strike surprisingly as most people are not ready."

bokchoy888

luckyfox 发表于 2016-5-27 11:10 AM
就算在1800的时候，也没走过现在这么牛的走势，一看就是人为的走势。从2025到现在，1小时根本就没有回调过， ...

normally when we are this close to the even number, like 2100, the momentum will carry it over to 2100 +.
In addition, another logic is , if I am the bull MM , now garbing the bear MM by the balls, why I want let it go. Keep push along the trend is easy for me to squeeze more shorts.  my 2 cents

luckyfox

bokchoy888 发表于 2016-5-27 11:28 AM
Agree, maybe, from now on , one step at time is the only way.
On the other side, my logic is , i ...

还是看6月是怎么度过的吧，如果不大跌，那就是继续攀升，在FED不断加息的前提下，能升多高值得怀疑！其实上升途中做跌也是可以的，现在的涨只是为了把去年的新高突破了，这样这一年的大顶就被RESET了，大家还有的玩耍而已，后面怎么走不管，我就按照小时来看，在没有QE和不断加息的前提下，要推高200点，中间没有2%或3%的回调，不是特别相信！但是有一点从这一周的走势能判断出来，就是去年的新高一定会被突破！这也是这波涨的目的，哪怕是突破1点，那么跌到1800的危机就被解除了。

luckyfox

还有就是根据均线，现在的日线均线排列是短，长，中。如果要变成短，中，长，就需要不断往上拉，然后回踩长期，再拉，再回踩长期，才能变成多头排列，上面有多大的空间呢？上一次完成这个操作，往上推高了200点，那么从这个位置往上推高200点用了大概10个月，2300在没有QE和要不断加息的前提下。。。。这个难度。。。。

luckyfox

bokchoy888 发表于 2016-5-27 11:32 AM
normally when we are this close to the even number, like 2100, the momentum will carry it over to  ...

2100已经不是什么阻力了，现在的问题是要到2111还是到2116，来开始1个小时的回调，而且要看回调的力度。如果回调就30点，那么很显然后面是要往2135的位置冲击的。如果突破了2111，那么5月的危机就化解了。

luckyfox

“It’s appropriate for the Fed to gradually and cautiously increase our overnight interest rate over time,” Yellen says, and probably in the coming months such a move would be appropriate.

luckyfox

多牛的总结啊，让我们看看MM是如果表现的！

luckyfox

加息不加息和MM的意图没有任何关系! YELLEN刚刚说完加息可能，跌了不到3个点，就又被拉起来了。

bokchoy888

luckyfox 发表于 2016-5-27 12:45 PM
加息不加息和MM的意图没有任何关系! YELLEN刚刚说完加息可能，跌了不到3个点，就又被拉起来了。

总结： 加息 = 涨 ， 不加息 = 涨

luckyfox

bokchoy888 发表于 2016-5-27 12:51 PM
总结： 加息 = 涨 ， 不加息 = 涨