USO Long Term Shorts is leaving

it.uncle

昨天USO在１：３０分，发生了壮观的一次上升脉冲。原因估计可能是长线SHORTS撤出了空方阵地，但是，短线SHORT很快又收复的阵地。

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Here's what I think happened today to cause a big spike:

I think it's clear that the sharp rise to $29.94 was due to long-term shorts covering (i.e.-buying back) their positions to lock in their profits from selling at higher prices as well as new people buying USO on a day that the stock market was moving up strongly. This can be seen from the big spike in volume (from the combined volume of new long positions and short covering) that accompanied the spike up to $29.94.

USO hit fresh new lows today while the market gapped up strongly and got stronger. At some point the shorts rushed in to cover and lock in their profits. After all, if you were short USO and you saw USO sitting flat below the previous 52-week low why would you not cover if you feared that a rising market might cause USO to eventually move up? Remember, anyone who had shorted USO (at any time in the last 52 weeks) would have been sitting on profits while USO was stuck in the $27.50 to $28.00 range.

Now here's what I think caused the sharp drop down from $29.94. If you were thinking about shorting USO (but not already short), then a sharp peak would be the logical place to attempt a short. This would be especially true on a day when USO made a fresh new 52-week low on high volume.

The net result is that price of USO ended up slightly higher after the spike and pullback in price. I think many of the long-term shorts got their chance to "escape" today by covering for profits below the previous 52-week low, but we also saw a lot of new shorts coming on board today after the peak was formed. I don't think it was a case of long positions selling out on a spike in intraday price; afterall, most long positions must have been bought at higher prices with very little profit to take.

The bottom line is that USO got WHACKED TODAY on a day that the overall market moved up nicely. I don't think it was justified. The amount of net movement up was very disappointing today. Of course, we will see what happens in the coming week or two. Since it appears that there is still a lot of "churning of positions" by people going short, there will be volatile days ahead for USO. I think this shows that most of shorts are trading in and out while the longs are simply buying and holding. That is what happens near a BIG BOTTOM.

I think the day will come sooner than later (as in sometime next week), when all of the shorts (both new and old) will be flushed out and burned by one huge short squeeze. The shorting game is becoming more dangerous as more people continue to foolishly short USO near what I think will be a LONG TERM BOTTOM.

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1, 昨天２倍以上的交易量也没有能够把USO推到正，说明短期空方力量强大。但是，长线SHORT正在迅速地撤出阵地。SHORTS的自身构成，长线SHORTS在迅速的转变成短线SHORTS。

2, LONG选手正在跑步进场，正在并且将要在石油的每次下跌，大举的买进，而且只买不卖。LONG的自身构成，短线LONG在迅速的转变成长线LONG。这样，会构成下降趋势线的下沿，在每次下跌的时候，提前得到支撑，从而在图形上，出现下降楔形的牛气。最后，在楔形的末端，短线SHORTS撤出阵地，多空力量发生逆转, 出现壮观的SHORT SQUEEZE,石油市场的大趋势，就此反转。

根据以上的思想，我本人觉得，USO短期内还会继续创新低。但是石油的大底，如果按目前的日消耗量计算，为期不远。

应对的办法是，进入点不变，继续按下降通道的下沿买进(考虑到更多的LONG将持货币进入，可以提前买进（通道下沿加几分钱）。出货点要改进。没有出现好的利润，应该更有信心的持仓。

本人昨天亲身经历本次反弹，跟以往一样。我继续短线DT HOU, 6.79 in, 7.1 Out. 然后，就错过了本次壮观的反弹。估计下一个HOU的买进点在6.5.

风清扬

bagua2009

firefly8

谢分析!! 你头像是我送给酷马的那张牡丹图? 也送你一张牡丹图:

jasmin256

源济

Good points. Thanks.

it.uncle

4# firefly8

I like the one 送给酷马的那张牡丹图. 酷马 can take this one if he wants.

Hiahiahia. Who gets it first, then who owns it.

firefly8

7# it.uncle
很高兴你也喜欢.  没关系的, 好图共享么. 再谢!!

Noah

Thanks!

ppteam

I don't know.
真正的OIL大空/多头应该去弄CL期货吧， 一元值$1000。

it.uncle

10# ppteam

USO is mirroring reflection of CL March Contract. The spike was caused by the Mar Oil Contract. CL Mar contract spiked to 42.5 around 1:30PM.

On the other hand, When you buy USO, you are actually buying a potion of CL March Contract.

But USO will soon be switched to April Contract next week.

The same thing happens to HOU.TO ( Canadian version of USO).

I do not know the buying of USO/HOU.TO will have an immediate or delayed buying of the CL Contract. But at any given moment, they are the same.

Elephant

笨妞妞

uni007

1# it.uncle

USO构成：50% oil +50% US dollar;  所以，USO反弹程度可能没有原油大。

inosine

$30左右带量徘徊, 即使反弹, 受下面的大volume拖挂，估计momentum也不会大，没有道理让大多数人发财吧。

pennbrook

tnak

the underlying force for that spike is CL. As the March/April contango widens big Friday. March contract might not have a much movement up before the delivery and this will put USO under a miserable selling pressure short term.

小咪

1# it.uncle

好文

tu1990

Ding! Thanks!

TrueContrarian

right to the point, USO is all retailers, exactly like intitutions use index options and retailers use QQQQ/SPY options.

Last Friday USO first dropped on the news that Obama was preparing a 26 month withdrawl from Iraq plan then rallied on the strength of the equity market, and fianally gave back all the gainings, which seems to me is bearish.


OIL was trading around $25 before the invasion of Iraq in May 2003,  if Obma were to push the withdrawl plan from Iraq, with a slowing world economy and falling demand, why shouldn't oil fall the same level before invasion of Iraq. with price at $20, the gulf countries still have 100% profit margin.

Currently we have too many oil bottom callers out there, watch it, it is just too early to take action. I think it could hit $30 soon.




10# ppteam