Where Shorts COULD reload

it.uncle

Missed first shot? No worries, take the second chance to load Short position.

http://www.rolia.net/f/post.php?f=43&b=0&c=0&tno=9223&pno=74281&

Before and after you reload Short position, you need to watch out the VOLUME very closely.

VOLUME, VOLUME, VOLUME, it is much more important than price.

It would surprise the heck out of me if tomorrow the market could go above 87.5(some people here predicted a 400 rise which made me in alert mode) but as a trader, you have to prepare for any possiblity, right? So, set your alarm here and you need to set a stop loss just above 85.5, when you hear ding,ding, ding,,,, you know what to do, don't you?

Yea, before I leave you here for a deep thinking, one more thing to mention. If you see SPX goes down under 700 to 600 zone this week, do not be scared. I will start FULLY load of long position when it is around 680. Of course, you have to follow the chart. Chart tells everything.

Still too many days to reach that golden point 6XX, till the time comes, just watch it.

I am stopping here.

Good luck

it.uncle

ZT from a hedge fund manager's trading blog
=====Start of ZT===============
First of all, I would like to thank everyone for participating in this commentary. You guys do such a great job, and I hope you gain just as much out of it as I do. We had the most amount of posts ever recorded yesterday, so lets keep that going.

Time to get back to business. We see the futures up slightly, about 30 points on the Dow. Tomorrow may look to be like a consolidation day. Looking at the charts, we are overdue for a small bounce. This small bounce will probably form the right shoulder of a MA (or head and shoulders) pattern, which should take us to new lows once the ascending support line is broken. I believe a 38.2% retracement will be the highest this market goes, but a 50% fibonacci retracement is not out of the question. These prices are 84.33 and 84.92$ on the SPY respectively.

I will look to add to my short at those prices. In the longer (day-week span), we are in a consolidation pattern, where the highs remain stuck at a 50 precent retracement at 87.50$, and the lows are slowly climing higher due to the ascending support line. This whole tirangle consolidation pattern can be reguarded as subwave 2 of Wave 5. Subwave 3, will only technically start, once we break this line.

However, I believe starting to short tomorrow in anticipation is the way to make money.

===== End of ZT ==============

hxx437

it.uncle, could you provide the link for the fund manager's trading blog?

low

thanks for sharing!

it.uncle

For the traders who got trapped in long position.

38.2% and 50% retracement line are the places to escape. Typically, if you do not see huge upwards volume to break through the selling pressure at 38.2% and 50%, then you should make up your mind to cut loss because in the market like this only NEWS and institutional buyers have the strength to reverse the course. The rebounce with no big upwards volume is the time Sellers taking a break, collecting money, reloading their cannons so the second wave of dropping could scare the investors' shit out.

So watch out the upwards volume near these key resistance points and remember all the time that it is BEAR market. Whenever the long position turns bad, you need to cut the loss immediately( next time). If you want to get your loss back quickly, after you escape with loss, oversell more shares then cover it at lower point -- turning your gun into the direction where the cannon is pointing.

Good luck

weigoodone01

源济

Thanks a lot!

CoolMax

Anita

thanks a lot!

银河金星

If you see SPX goes down under 700 to 600 zone this week, do not be scared.
it.uncle 发表于 2009-2-11 04:44

Unlikely until we are close to next ER season.