板块主题窝 --- 生物和化学制药

spy2009

有个化学博士的头衔，虽然现在的工作和化学一点关系都没有，但是开这个板块主题
窝，应该不会被拍砖头吧。

先简单说两句：小分子药物(西药)的黄金时代已经过去了，开发小分子新药物越来
越难，而已有的专利纷纷到期，制药公司的日子最近比较难过。好在它们都积累了
大量的现金，省点钱和做一些整合以及重组，顶过难关的能力应该有。如果还有余
钱去购买，有希望过几年能够大发的研究中的新药项目，那就太爽了。现在这个时
候去买半成品，实在是便宜，当然有可能买十个，都是次品。

大分子药物，就是生物制药了。这个东东，在2000年附近也泡沫过，现在比较理性了。
相对于小分子药物，大分子药物是新领域但不成熟，黄金时代还没有到来，接下来
不知哪年可能还会有一次泡沫。

spy2009

maomi 的帖子:

Ok, this is my area, I guess I could talk about it, from my point of view.

First of all, electing O8 is not a good news for biopharmaceutical company, as his plan is going to apply higher tax to biopharmaceutical companies to compensate the cost on his universal health plan.

My company (~55,000 employees globally) urges all employees to write email to congress, etc to against this. Biopharmaceutical company was viewed as the industry that could bring the economy back on right track, like how internet, dot come bubbles delayed the economy recessions in late 1990s.  However, it took 10 years or so to bring a new drug to the  market, and ~10% drug candidates can make through the clinical phases to the market. It is a huge investment and risk from big biopharmaceutical company on developing new drugs, that's why new drug is always costly.

Profit of big pharma mostly comes from the blockbuster new drugs before the drug patent expire. To maintain the profit, big biopharm need keep investing money on developing new drugs. The higher tax on biopharmaceutical company may lead to less spending on new drug discovery and development, and thus less new drugs to the market, etc.  Therefore, the profit outlook for big biopharma is dismal. The economy downturn implies more small drug discovery company will have difficulty to get capitols, and thus run out of their venture capitals within a year or two.

Biopharm industry in China is like in infant stage, comparing to States by all aspects.

check the link below to see why biopharm stock plunging in the past two trading todays:
"Drug companies would receive smaller profits from the government"

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090228/ap_on_go_pr_wh/obama_budget_7

spy2009

newhand 的帖子:

从第一家生物技术制药公司的成立(1971)到2004年，生物技术制造工业已走完33年的路程，全球研制中的生物技术药物共有２２００多种，进入临床试验的１７００余种，已投放市场的约１４０种，预计５年内投放市场的药物将达到２００种以上。生物药品已广泛应用于治疗癌症、多发性硬化症、贫血、发育不良、糖尿病、肝炎、心力衰竭、血友病、囊性纤维变性和一些罕见的遗传性疾病。已经上市的生物药品一般分为三大类：即：重组的治疗用蛋白质，重组疫苗和诊断或治疗用的单克隆抗体(Mabs)。　　2000年以来，我国相继出台了一系列相关政策，对医药行业未来几年的发展指出了明确的战略性发展方向，生物制药业面临良好的发展机遇，真正立足于生物制药业并有一定高技术产品支持的医药企业已表现出良好的增长趋势。预计在今后几年，我国生物制药业将会保持20-30%的年增长率，到2005年生物制药业的市场销售额将达到130-150亿元，利润将达到40-48亿元。与发达国家相比，虽然国内生物医药技术仍存在明显的差距，但生物医药业无疑正处在加速上升阶段，市场潜力巨大。

　　目前，中国国内已将生物医药产业作为经济中的重点建设行业和高新技术中的支柱产业来发展，在一些科技发达或经济发达的地区建立了国家级生物医药产业基地，比如上海浦东生物医药开发基地，广东中山健康产业基地等，在深圳、上海、长春、厦门、杭州等地，一些生物技术骨干企业已经迅速崛起。我国生物制药产业虽然发展较快，但也存在严重的问题，如资金投入少，研制开发力量薄弱，技术创新落后；在药品开发与生产上重复建设现象严重；力量分散，企业规模小，整体生产现代化水平不高，设备落后；市场开发理念失常，缺乏品牌意识；企业管理相对滞后，技术兼经营性人才匮乏；企业相互之间缺乏交流和合作。

　　为了帮助大家比较全面地了解这一领域，我们编辑、整理了一组材料，供大家学习、参考。

spy2009

偶最近也在逢底陆续囤积医疗行业的个股。

看个股，机会来了，就囤积；不跌到地板，不接飞刀。

罗马不是一天建成的，囤积不是一天完成的。偶其实也希望下星期初大盘大跌，再
带动医疗行业整体下跌，建仓的机会更多了。

spy2009

invest4long 的帖子:

XLV 收盘$22.98 估计用不了3个月，就跟XLF差不多了，$10左右。

源济

Thanks!

spy2009

有没有邻居抄过MR，CMED，SSRX，WX，SCR系列的？咱们聊聊。

maomi

Thanks for SPY2009 for pulling the info together. I am a new frog in stock market, thought I could contribute what I know about biopharm to  return the favors from HHs and other frogs at HT.
Pfizer was the leader for developing small molecule based drug, and made big profits out of it. This was reflected in its billions revenue in the past decade. Pfizer's research base for small molecule drug in Michigan was shut down a few years ago, indicating the end of era of small molecule based drug.

Pfizer is still making good money. However, its revenue will be severely impacted by the patent expiration of its blockbuster drug "lipitor", which brings in more than 20 billion revenue each year. Pfizer does not have strong product pipeline comparing to its peer drug companies. It is almost impossible for Pfizer to find an alternative new drug product to “Lipitor” to bring in the same good profit in the years to come, unless through “acquisition”. That's why Pfizer's stock price took a dive in the past year, because the future outlook does not look good from investor's point of view. For the same reason, Pfizer bided for Wyeth, which has a better product pipeline, to speed up the process to bring new drugs to market.

Pfizer founded a new research base in Missouri a year ago (?) for biomolecule based drug. However, as I said before, it takes years for drug candidates to make to market. It is unfortunate that Pfizer did not see the need to develop biomolecule based drug earlier, and now it has to pay the price.

weigoodone01

spy2009

谢谢maomi的分享。

偶虽然有不少在大药厂工作的同学，但是偶自己从来没在大药厂干过，充其量只是耳闻而已。maomi的可是第一手资料。

总体来说，偶不看好美国的大药厂，但比较看好国内的医疗企业。

请问maomi，对美国大药厂，把新药研发进行外包，有什么看法？新药研发外包第一是印度，现在中国也在追赶。

neutral

这个行业不了解，但这样的帖子一定要顶！！

dividend_growth

前几个月一大堆基金避难到了保健业，以为那里比较安全。没想到奥拔毛这么早就动手，这下子只好夺路而逃，自相践踏，溃不成军。

spy2009

前几个月一大堆基金避难到了保健业，以为那里比较安全。没想到奥拔毛这么早就动手，这下子只好夺路而逃，自相践踏，溃不成军。
dividend_growth 发表于 2009-2-28 14:42

这对偶可是个好消息，老大，能不能推荐一些保健业的个股和ETF？

先观察一阵子，差不多了，试试囤积一些。

Noah

好贴要顶！曾经做过MR，公司据说不错！

spy2009

MR在中国概念股里是大明星股，最近也狂跌中。还没考虑进，因为没跌到偶心动的价位。

偶对个股，可遇而不可求，终于遇到了也不珍惜。

Noah

老大能不能列个单子观察一下？对这个行业实在太不了解了！

spy2009

MR和CMED都是做医疗器材的，和保健业倒是有点关系。

这次MR和CMED一起大跌，估计和dividend_growth 说的消息有关。

lovehutong9

thanks. big env. is not good...?

spy2009

偶对个股，可遇而不可求，终于遇到了也不珍惜。
spy2009 发表于 2009-2-28 15:01

偶对雅芝姐是情有独钟，永不改变。

Noah