贸易战之下中国最新情势报告

Maylin

习特会，把贸易战半年多来的国际形势梳理下，总体上，中美焦灼不分胜负，但是出人意料的是，美国的盟友阵营和传统势力范围出现大面积的倒塌，下面是若干重点事件：

1 澳新总理说不觉得有必要在美中之间做出选择。这是新加坡之后，又一个美国亚太盟友表示希望中立。这种立场，在美苏冷战时都没有过，特别是澳大利亚。
2 缅甸开通第二条中国能源通道。昂山素季一贯的给力，诺贝尔和平奖真是给对人了。
3 韩国要求收回美国战时指挥权。
4 安倍访华中日和解，日本脱离美国立场，正式支持一带一路。
5 越南表示今后最重要的伙伴是中国。这比中立还厉害，还是渡尽余波兄弟在啊。
6 新加坡与中国升级自贸区。在贸易战的档口，新加坡的支持太及时太重要了，新加坡反华时很凶，亲华时也毫不含糊，也许真是血浓于水。
7 泰国宣布，动用皇族的绝对权力，确保中泰高铁经济带全面动工。泰国皇族不再忍受议会里亲美派的掣肘。
8 以色列把军港海法租给中国。这个太意外了，意义多重大就不用说了。
9 中英开通沪伦通，关键时刻英国对中国金融稳定与安全提供了强有力的支持。英国这几年都是嘴上批评中国，实际力挺中国，贵族就是贵族，格局和手腕都不是一般的高。
10 美国总统缺席两个亚太重要首脑会议，不好意思来了，知道影响力确实下降了。
11 马来西亚新总统要求承认中国对南海的权力，美国大型军舰不要开到南海。马新总统比前总统更亲华更有政治远见。
12 法国提出组建欧洲军队，防范美俄中。竟然还防范美国，这是战后第一次，但是法国要是不让度权力给德国，是干不成事的，长远看德法早晚会摆脱美国控制，成为世界新的一极。
13 中印边界谈判打破几十年的僵局，取得重要共识。印度不再愿意充当美国遏制中国的棋子，这才是真正的大国，给印度点赞。
14 菲律宾同意与中国联合开发南海。菲律宾更给力。
15 台湾九合一选举，民进党大败，美国势力在台湾开始丧失民意。

上面一系列事件，是贸易战以来出人意料的变化，是贸易战带给中国的出人意料的收获，所以，大家是不是改变下思路，不要老盯着贸易战，变局恰恰在贸易战之外！

6th-Sense

中国政府这次总体做的不错。。。 大家拿这个鸟国真把自己当回事， 就该狠狠报复。

Maylin

一路带一路在南亚做的很不错的

forgethat

且听且信， 或不信。 舆论和新闻，很容易被导/误导，像下面这篇

https://www.washingtonpost.com/o ... ee4035c9_story.html
Who’s looking great again? It’s not America
By Sebastian Mallaby September 15, 2017

Sebastian Mallaby, author of "The Man Who Knew: The Life & Times of Alan Greenspan," is the Paul A. Volcker senior fellow for international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations and a contributing columnist for The Post.

Last year, in the wake of President Trump's election, financial markets took off on a wild sprint, apparently believing his promise to make America great again. Ten months later, the financiers are wiser: The president's immigration clampdown alarms them; his divisive response to Charlottesville appalls them. Despite the heady expectations of this past winter, there has been no sign of an infrastructure plan; few expect serious tax reform given the bungling of health-care legislation, not to mention the sidelining of Gary Cohn, the tax plan's chief Sherpa. And yet, as if by a miracle of levitation, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index is still about a fifth above its level on the day of the election. What's happening?

The short answer is that foreign leaders have done a surprisingly good job of making foreign countries great again. From Xi Jinping's China to Emmanuel Macron's France, politicians are delivering policies that businesses want. As a result, the world economy is growing faster than at any time since the post-crisis bump of 2010. The yuan and the euro have risen sharply against the dollar. A more competitive greenback and the prospect of strong exports have supported U.S. stock prices. A Chinese communist and a French technocrat have done more for American business than Trump has.

Consider China's recent performance. In 2015 and again in early 2016, China suffered acute financial turbulence. After averaging almost 10 percent growth between 2006 and 2014 and turbocharging the global economy, China suddenly emerged as the chief risk to the world. In its headlong drive to invest in coal mines and steel plants, it created a glut that was driving foreigners out of business. In its faltering experiments with financial modernization, it allowed cracks to appear in its currency controls: Well-to-do Chinese families were rushing to buy anti-dictator insurance in the form of real estate in Los Angeles or London. The government's war chest of foreign currency reserves shrunk by about $1 trillion as it desperately bought back yuan to offset capital flight.

In the past 18 months, however, China has restored calm. Last year the government ordered coal mines to cap production at 276 days; steel output was also cut, and producers the world over have profited from recovering prices. Meanwhile, authorities have put a stop to capital flight, using dictatorial powers to crush purchases of anti-dictator insurance. The process has not been pretty, but capital flight has ended and the yuan has recovered. Any company connected to China's global supply chains is breathing more freely.

Now consider the good news from Europe. Before France's spring elections, half the electorate supported business-unfriendly candidates of the far right and left. That polarization allowed Macron to power through the middle and seize the prize of the presidency, which he is now using to advance much-needed liberalization of hiring and firing. The challenge of labor-market reform has defeated other French leaders, but Macron is determined. He means to push through the reforms by decree, and he has persuaded two of the three main labor unions to stay out of the street protests against him. France's stock market index is up by nearly a fifth in dollar terms this year.

Meanwhile, Germany and Italy, the two other major euro zone economies, are also doing well. Angela Merkel, the calm anchor of the region, is cruising toward her fourth electoral mandate in the vote on Sept. 24. To ease the way for Macron's difficult labor reforms, she seems likely to use her refreshed authority to relax Germany's habitual enthusiasm for budget austerity. Italy, for its part, has emerged stronger from a recent round of bank bailouts, and its populist parties have scaled back their scary promises to quit the euro. If the European Central Bank is forced to dial back its extraordinary monetary stimulus — it is running out of German bonds to purchase — the combination of a less austere Merkel and healthier European banks should be enough to sustain recovery.

The one biggish economy that's foundering is the one Trump has celebrated: Brexiting Britain. There, populists are proving politically incompetent and economically harmful. British growth, which sputtered in at an annualized rate of 1.2 percent in the second quarter, is the lowest among the major economies. The pound is weak, even against the limping dollar. Inflation has jumped. Perhaps it is time for Trump to take stock of the world and ask himself: Who's looking great — and who is not?

Maylin

我一个朋友正在做这一方面的研究工作，她说缅甸，柬埔寨等中国周边国家的小孩子都在学中文，他们可以做火车起来中国云南地区上学。因为他们知道长大了要去中国找工作。现在我的朋友还在深圳做深入调查研究呢！

acoust