明线报告周末增补摘要

ddd

We may have to be patient to enter our long position strategy. We believe there is strong developing evidence that a bottom that lasts several weeks, perhaps several months, and generates a 15 to 20 percent rally or more, perhaps as much as 30 percent, is approaching. However, the problem is, we cannot be 100 percent certain whether that has started now, or will start in a few weeks. Here is the problem as we see it fro the immediate Bullish scenario where this multi-week rally has started this past week:
•        We have a phi mate turn date March 13th, 2009, this past Friday, which is a problem for the Bullish case because prices rose into a closing high that day. That argues a top is forming short-term, and another down leg in this dastardly Bear Market is yet to come, sooner rather than
•        Another problem for the Bullish case is our proprietary Plunge Protection Team Indicator remains solidly on a sell signal, and projections we have run do not suggest a buy signal is likely over the next week
•        Third, we have an Elliott Wave pattern that allows us to count this past week’s rally as wave (4) up, meaning another wave down, (5) down, is needed to complete this year and one-half down-leg. If this is in fact the case, then a top arrived Friday, March 13th, or will very early next week, to be followed by a 10 percent or greater decline. That decline could run into our next phi mate turn date, scheduled for March 26th, 2009. That would likely mark a bottom, the spring equinox turn we are expecting, and lead to a rally that lasts a few months.
That is the neat and tidy version.

Of course we know markets are not neat and tidy, and should prices rise straight up from here, next week, and the PPT indicator confirm this rally with a Buy signal, then in all likelihood, the multi-week rally we are expecting, the Bear Market rally, is underway, and March 26th's phi mate turn would likely be the top of the first significant wave of this rally move, and the March 14th phi mate turn came a week early, on March 6th. By then, March 26th, the Daily Full Stochastics would be topping, setting up a corrective decline within a larger degree move higher. So next week will be interesting to say the least.

Here is something else, quite interesting, to consider for the immediate future of stock prices. We got a very rare event Thursday and Friday this past week. We saw readings of 100 in both the percent above 10 day and percent above 5 day indicators for the Blue Chip Dow Industrials. This has only happened once before in the past four years. That occurred this past January 2nd, 2009, and marked a significant top. At that time, the S&P 500 closed at 932, then fell to 666 last week, March 6th, a drop of 28.5 percent over the subsequent ten weeks. There were only four other near extreme overbought readings in both indicators within a day of each other since 2004, where readings of at least 96.67 (a reading of 100.00 is the maximum possible reading) were reached in both the percent above 10 day and percent above 5 day indicators. In three of the four instances, they marked significant tops in the market. In the fourth, we got a minor top. So what we are saying, is in all five of the previous instances when the percent above 10 day and 5 day indicators reached at least 96.67 within a day of each other since 2004, it meant a stock market top was at hand. That suggests there is a high probability stocks reached, or will reach early next week a top that could be significant. Here are the details of the other incidences noted above: We got a pair of 96.67 readings on November 4th, 2008, with the S&P 500 at 1,006. That top led to a decline to 752, or 25 percent through November 20th, 2008. We got a pair of 96.67 readings on December 6th, 2007, when the S&P 500 hit 1,507. It led to a drop to 1,310, a 13 percent drop, through January 22nd, 2008. We got a pair of 96.67 readings on September 18th, 2007, with the S&P 500 at 1529, which led to a drop to 1,407 through November 26th, 2007, an 8 percent decline. Before that, we got 96.67 and 100.00 readings on March 21st, 2007, which was a top, but only led to a small decline from 1435 to 1417 over one week.

Another interesting technical fact from this past week is that volume fell every day since Tuesday's mega-rally. Rallies on declining volume suggest they are approaching an end.


结论：大盘正走完（4），从下周起到3月26日一个大于10%的下降回调（5）的可能性非常大；3月26日反转为数月的熊市大反弹，目标可达30%；可能性小的走法为（5）已在9日走完，目前已进入（熊市）大反弹。

newyorker

Wonderful analysis!!!

somebody

thanks!

benmao

ding

meow

Thanks

Ave

hnhy

Thanks!

stevenw

ding

笑口常开

Thanks

lovehutong9

thanks!

Cobra

We may have to be patient to enter our long position strategy. We believe there is strong developing evidence that a bottom that lasts several weeks, perhaps several months, and generates a 15 to 20 p ...
ddd 发表于 2009-3-15 03:03

Thanks, very good!

tog

Thank good analysis. Thanks for sharing.

seafood

leftright

thank you

牛熊

Thank You for sharing!

风清扬

多谢多谢！{:6_337:}{:6_337:}{:6_337:}

Wolf

源济

Maxie

青蛙感觉：市场强势的时候，phi 做爱日可以忽略不计。

lionking819

great analysis! thanks