This is confirmed first wave of P2

baysky

Even EWI had called P2, instead of 4(5) of P1

This wave up is massive and quick, it appears to have one more subwave to peak first 5 wave up. And we are looking at least 38% retraction to major support at 750.  Anything less than that, meaning first leg is not peaked. However 熊熊 beware, 780 is a now a strong support a previous strong resistant.

I am also short heavy like most 熊熊, let hope for best, prepared for worst.
This is borrowed chart from Dan.

多吉

I'm not scared...yet.

CoolMax

I'm not scared...yet.
多吉 发表于 2009-3-18 07:18 PM

这是牛牛登天的天梯，呵呵！

俺咋看着摇摇欲坠啊！

Braveheart

If SPX goes over 805.XX,  this would mean the previous wave count is problematic.

neutral

nice chart!

baysky

Yes, I agree.
the problem of Elliott Wave is we can only confirm after fact. Like we won't know if this run is finished until it's finished.

But it's still good know that we are in intermediate bullish run instead of bearish run. Remember this last P1 (Primary wave 1) started Oct 2007 when SPX was 1500. We just finish 5th wave of P1 started from Jan 2009.

Consider the magnitude of these wave, we should respect the coming bullish run, adjust our bearish thinking for a while.  Think about where SPX is going to be after we finished P5, 200-300 is not out of question. But before that, make sure 熊熊 has life to see it.

GL

ppteam

没有别的意思。但这次如果是中期底已过，数波的没有预测对的。
因此对以后的中/短期预测要打个极大的问号。

ppteam

7# ppteam

对了，加一句。只要对一两次，就会有人蹦出来说是北美第一。
青蛙筒子们不要碰WAVE。

baysky

ppteam,

There're a couple of very good EWer predicted this a few weeks back even before EWI revise their call. It's only confirmed today and agreed by most EWer after rule violation.

Other than that, like said, EW is not really for prediction. But EW rule violation is very good indicator of market turn. The wave is never wrong only our interpretation will be wrong.

q13117

Agree with Braveheart.

ppteam

9# baysky

为什么青蛙不能碰WAVE？因为WAVE本质上就是COUNTER TREND TRADE，用它来看BIG PICTURE就行了。
你看HT有多少筒子做COUNTER TREND TRADE被套？

源济

fseek

EWI's counting may be wrong. We are not in P2. We are even not getting out of Wave 3 of P1 yet.

soulvirus

老大们把偶说得头昏眼花。

偶的一个基本股市操作，在大家panic时买入。在大家万岁中偶离场。前一阵，大家喊skf到500，谈论到6xx的时候，牛牛多panic。那个时候偶short skf了。后来如何，大家也见到了。

现在熊熊都尿成这样了，怕什么，short.

baysky

EWI's counting may be wrong. We are not in P2. We are even not getting out of Wave 3 of P1 yet.
fseek 发表于 2009-3-18 21:41

This is Elliott Wave International official count.
http://www.elliottwave.com/

No saying that they are always correct. They just changed their call from P1 to P2 today while they should have two weeks ago.
But they have some respect and credibility among EWers.

( I am not EWer, but I closely follow counts as reference.)

LadyLucy

Thanks

fseek

I am a EW-lover and learner. I do respect EWI and Robert. I learned a lot from his amazing work. However, the EWI's counting just makes me feel not comfortable. The 3(4) is so short in time. And it doesn't satisfy the minimum requirement proposed by Dr. William in his book.  Hope you also notice that.

This is Elliott Wave International official count.
http://www.elliottwave.com/

No saying that they are always correct. They just changed their call from P1 to P2 today while they should have t ...
baysky 发表于 2009-3-18 23:31

baysky

fseek,

I have been following Kenny's blog. He's one of the first who called P2.
http://kennystechnicalanalysisbl ... ippets-allowed.html

fseek

Thanks a lot for the useful information.
In his blog, he mentioned:
"The entire decline from January 6 cannot be an ending diagonal because wave 3 is longer than wave 1."
Actually, it could be an expanding ending diagonal although it's rare.  The reason he mentioned is only valid for a contracting diagonal.
Of course I could be wrong.

fseek,

I have been following Kenny's blog. He's one of the first who called P2.
http://kennystechnicalanalysisbl ... ippets-allowed.html
baysky 发表于 2009-3-19 00:24

coexist

.........