九号胡同

 找回密码
 注册
搜索
查看: 1870|回复: 16

3/25 market analysis (ZZ)

[复制链接]

2

主题

69

好友

1585

积分

群众股民

爆发户小胖

Rank: 2

发表于 2009-3-25 08:15 PM |显示全部楼层








The trading range in last 3 days has been quite huge. That tells me that a big move is coming. The nature of the move in the last 2 hours clearly smells manipulation to me. It was big boys driving the market down to get in at cheap levels for the upcoming big move. I have spent last 2 hours looking at charts, news and blogs and here is what I see. (Btw, my conclusion is market goes up here... may be touch SPY = 90 by end of March)

Arguments to make a bullish case:
- The dip from HOD to LOD in the last 2 hours today was a 23.2% retracement of the move from the March lows to today’s highs on SPY. Given the strong bullish nature of the move up, one can argue that this is all the retracement we get.
- After coming straight up from 666, the indices have held steady in a decent sized trading range. This is good for bulls, bad for bears. More time spent in this region without going down will get rid of the overbought conditions.
- The pattern on the weekly charts is very scarily ominous for bears. The weekly oscillators are flashing a very strong buy signal on SPY, IWM and SPY.
- End of the month, end of the quarter window dressing. 4 more trading days remain in the quarter – we could have a push towards SPY = 90 (which is where the quarter started) by the money managers to post positive numbers for the quarter.
- UBS report from earlier in the day (posted on SOH) said that this rally was started by retail and then the institutions have jumped in.
- The move down today might be similar to the move down in Gold on the morning of Fed announcement. Probably folks know that the numbers tomorrow morning are good, and hence the market was dipped to get in at cheap prices….. It as a decent sized move down from the highs of the day.

Arguments to make a bearish case:
- We are up almost 25% from 666 in little over 2 weeks without any major retracement.
- The daily charts are overbought with CCI rolling over.
- The unemployment data coming out on Thursday can’t be good amidst recessionary economy

1462

主题

42

好友

9万

积分

版主

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

开国元勋

发表于 2009-3-25 08:38 PM |显示全部楼层
good good. thnx
Nothing worse than a closeup of Youklis in HD
回复

使用道具 举报

0

主题

68

好友

5998

积分

群众股民

Rank: 2

发表于 2009-3-25 08:48 PM |显示全部楼层
面包会有的
回复

使用道具 举报

2

主题

92

好友

6271

积分

群众股民

Rank: 2

发表于 2009-3-25 08:50 PM |显示全部楼层
回复

使用道具 举报

4

主题

66

好友

2万

积分

老股民

Rank: 3Rank: 3

发表于 2009-3-25 08:50 PM |显示全部楼层
Thanks for sharing
回复

使用道具 举报

0

主题

45

好友

1万

积分

老股民

Rank: 3Rank: 3

发表于 2009-3-25 09:00 PM |显示全部楼层
thank you
回复

使用道具 举报

17

主题

79

好友

1万

积分

老股民

Rank: 3Rank: 3

发表于 2009-3-25 09:02 PM |显示全部楼层
good points
回复

使用道具 举报

12

主题

47

好友

1万

积分

老股民

Rank: 3Rank: 3

发表于 2009-3-25 09:16 PM |显示全部楼层
回复

使用道具 举报

172

主题

231

好友

11万

积分

老股民

Rank: 3Rank: 3

发表于 2009-3-25 09:56 PM |显示全部楼层
thanks for sharing
回复

使用道具 举报

9

主题

52

好友

6323

积分

群众股民

Rank: 2

发表于 2009-3-25 10:03 PM |显示全部楼层
回复

使用道具 举报

8

主题

13

好友

3540

积分

群众股民

Rank: 2

发表于 2009-3-25 10:13 PM |显示全部楼层
nice arguement mapping
回复

使用道具 举报

90

主题

137

好友

23万

积分

大户

Rank: 4

活跃达人

发表于 2009-3-25 10:22 PM |显示全部楼层
thx.ding
回复

使用道具 举报

6

主题

45

好友

1万

积分

老股民

笨笨熊

Rank: 3Rank: 3

发表于 2009-3-25 10:38 PM |显示全部楼层
回复

使用道具 举报

0

主题

9

好友

448

积分

新股民

Rank: 1

发表于 2009-3-25 11:14 PM |显示全部楼层
回复

使用道具 举报

0

主题

4

好友

45

积分

新股民

Rank: 1

发表于 2009-3-25 11:21 PM |显示全部楼层
回复

使用道具 举报

0

主题

129

好友

5190

积分

群众股民

Rank: 2

发表于 2009-3-26 02:23 AM |显示全部楼层
hope this big manipulation can last three months.
回复

使用道具 举报

0

主题

38

好友

2562

积分

群众股民

Rank: 2

发表于 2009-3-26 06:56 AM |显示全部楼层
3/25 market analysis (ZZ)
回复

使用道具 举报

您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

手机版|www.hutong9.net

GMT-5, 2020-6-5 01:05 AM , Processed in 0.140368 second(s), 21 queries .

Powered by Discuz! X2.5

© 2001-2012 Comsenz Inc.

回顶部