Cobra Brother, ask you a question ?

lilyflower

Only when today's drop  ( If there is a drop or MDD ) cancels yesterday's increased points of SP 500. Then if there is another three downtrend days  with SP 500 drop points cancels the increased points of these three uptrend days, We can confirm that this MKT is still a bear trend MKT ( at least in a short term) ?

Cobra

俺是说如果今天开始跌了，那包括今天在内，一共有3天的时间，熊熊要证明自己。如果今天涨了，那周一开始跌的话，熊熊有4天时间，and so on...

Maxie

Nothing is very sure these days. MAD/MDD rules are going to be broken many times. If a rule has been working >85% in the past the chance of it being broken is large. Unfortunately it is pretty much the nature of all analysis using past to predict the future.

Tail events have much higher risks (events with < 10%, 5% probabilities) and in this market tail events happen a lot ---- volatility is high ---- we rallied 1000 pts but vix did not drop much, just compare the VIX for last Dec and this Mar, i think it tells something there.

When VIX drops out of its current box and goes down I will have a much higher conviction of a sustainable rally.

always tread the water with extreme caution. there's no sure thing.