本帖最后由 多吉 于 2009-4-7 22:11 编辑
By Barry Rosen
JUNE S&P e-MINI DAILY CHART TREND:
Lower to at 620 into early May; first target 720.
WEEKLY CHART TREND:
Probably lower in April into early May and then higher into July 10.
PATTERNS and CYCLES: (4/1)
The 830.25 region will hold this week and we are very skeptical it will get retested. We are clear on a 5-3-5 pattern toward 943 or 1000 forming here until July 10. We also feel that April is weak into early May and that could be the 3-wave decline and "b" wave. If the market cannot get through 830 this week, then there is still a 55% chance for a new low into May 10 low and probably that low will be at 620. The week of employment is heavy consolidation and at this point we doubt 814 will get taken out on the upside and 763 should hold on the downside going into the report. We have looked closely at cycles for Friday and they are mixed but more positive than negative. It may be that we get a sell-off on Sunday night that continues into Monday and Tuesday.
YEARLY OUTLOOK: (3/23)
Overall for the year we are inclined to think that a temporary low has been put in and that a secondary low in early April will come. If we do go to 943-1000 into July, will the market congest the rest of the year between 666 and 1000 and that maybe even into August 2010. We know we have to be long from a secondary low into early April and we will see how high that gets us into July but 943 and 1000 are easy targets. So we may get a reprieve this year and we not see new lows until Dec. 2010. There should be a sense by the end of the year that the market is coming out of this mess.
MULTI-YEAR CYCLES: 2009-2017:
Long-term research on the stock market shows the long term is not great but short-term it is much better. For 2009, those cycles have suggest a low a high into early April, a pullback into early May and then a rally into about July 10 (which for sure is a high now) and then a secondary low into the end of August and then a new high into late October an choppy sideways action into the end of the year. We still need to overlap some other cycles on top of this but for now we may need to think that we are running out of time for this market to make new lows to 620 and a close above 800 will negate that possibility and new lows and those would not come in until Dec. 2010 at this point.
We need to do some calculations on where the July 2010 high might go to. For 2010: Cycle highs peak into July 2010 and then fall sharply into Dec. 2010. They recover into August 2011 and fall off into Dec. 2011. The year 2011 seems sideways to lower but could end up dropping much more significantly if we are correct about the dollar falling sharply. The biggest crash appears to happen Dec. 2012-July 2013, and that coincides with the 1993 banking crisis in the 120-year cycle. We see a recovery into August 2015 and then new lows to 2016 and April 2017 before the bear market is over.
Folks who were trading from 1966-82 can remember that you can have 18-20 years of congestion at times. The mess we are in will go deeper than the 30's depression by the time we get to 2013-16. The good news is that a new economic system will come out of all of this.
JUNE DOLLAR INDEX (electronic) WEEKLY CHART: (3/31)
With crude and stocks lower in April into early May, we are wondering if the dollar will come to life unexpectedly. There is one very bullish pattern that would project the 9600 region and the market is probably not going to take out 8500-8520 on dips now. There is still a minor chance for 8050 but for the moment we are dismissing it.
MONTHLY CHART OVERVIEW:
The longer-term picture for the dollar suggests higher dollars into Feb. 2011 and from there we will start the big dollar crash into 2012 and 2013.
CHICAGO JUNE MINI-GOLD (electronic)DAILY CHART TREND:
Lower into the week of April 13.
WEEKLY CHART TREND:
Fourth-wave retracement to max. 796 into July.
MONTHLY CHART TREND:
Higher to 2400-3000 into 2012-13.
NEAR TERM: (4/1)
Gold and silver are due for cycle lows this week and they may have already come in, although silver could still make a new low to 1220. Gold is likely to hold support at 911 on the June contract. While we are bullish long term, and seasonally gold is often up in April into early May, the stock market is probably going to have to break S&P 700 to cause flight to quality on gold and push it up to 1036 into May. We will be looking to start accumulating very soon. Gold appears to be higher into Monday, which suggests it will get support from the employment report on Friday.
BIG PICTURE: (3/27)
Retracements off of the 1007 high suggest at least 835 and 796. We may have enough time into the late March low to go lower or it could drag out over months. Linear cycle lows are due the week of April 13 but gold stocks and the gold bug index cycle secondary highs are due the week ending April 3. The chances of a rally to 1034 first seem small. MONTHLY CHART TREND: (2/24) We think the dollar will become worthless into 2012-3 and that gold will become king again. Prices project 2400-3000. This is not the time to do an entry on such a trade, as the weekly chart is topping for now, but it will continue to be a long-term investment.
XAU and GOLD STOCKS(3/27)
Gold Bug index and gold stocks via the XAU are due for highs here and they may be in or we may see a secondary high. We are assuming that gold stocks will fall with the rest of the market into May 10. Rallies on the gold stock index eventually project 176 but that may be much, much later in the year.
MAY e-mini CRUDE (electronic) DAILY CHART TREND:
Lower to 4156-4200 probably into April.
WEEKLY CHART TREND:
Higher to 6300.
NEAR TERM: (4/1)
We think a 3-wave rally needs to happen here and that another 690 point 5-wave decline will follow. We would like to see 4156 or 4200 but it would mean that no new highs come now. Cycle lows appear to dominate from the last week of April into the first week of May.
BIG PICTURE: (3/31)
Crude confirmed a top by breaking 4900 and now it just a matter if we can get in a decent level. We think this is part of the pullback to 4150-4200 that we have been alluding to for weeks but it could unravel into something deeper. JULY BEANS (electronic)NEAR TERM: (4/1) Beans have only a 40% chance of hitting 966 with an extended target of 1013 having a smaller chance. We think beans will work toward filling the 917 gap area the rest of the week, and they may surprise people and make new lows next week if crude decides to fall to 4150-4200 into April 9. I will not talk about 842.50 on the downside until this market takes out 898 again.
BIG PICTURE: (3/31)
We have resurrect the 5th-wave high of 1013 but we doubt it will happen that quickly unless crude takes off for 5200 this week. Cycles still seem weak to us April 1-9 after at least one more new high to 966. Hedgers should put some bean shorts on at the 964 and 1012 regions because we think this market will retreat once it finishes that pattern, and it could be done within a few days.
ECONOMIC, POLITICAL and GOVERNMENTAL CYCLES:
AN UPDATE(3/31) There are two messy war cycles into Saturday, April 4 and with political tensions up between Japan and North Korea (you shoot down our missiles and it's war), we need to be on alert. The energy over the weekend for G-20 is anything but friendly and we expect there will be a lot of fighting and a lot of indecision. April cycles closely suggest that the stock market will not continue to rally then and seasonally tax day usually turns into a low. There may be rallies in places but the period from April 23-30 may be the start a large 3-wave retracement from the March 6-April 3 rally. Weather cycles this year are more on the rainy to floody side and that should increase problems in parts of the world that get hit.
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发表于 2009-4-7 09:10 PM
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发表于 2009-4-7 10:27 PM
