中国经济复苏：3月外贸劲扬23.8%

Bencat

同比降幅收窄  环比劲扬

    此前已经连续下降五个月的出口数据和骤降的外贸顺差额，令市场为3月的外贸情况捏了一把冷汗。

    10日公布的海关数据显示，3月在去年同期较高的基数上，出口同比降幅要比前两月减少4个百分点，而进口的同比降幅也要比前两月减少9.1个百分点，显示出3月进出口的走强。

    与此同时，环比数据上的不俗增长则带给市场以极大的鼓励。与2月相比，3月出口增长32.8%，进口增14%。

    “ 这些指标均表明3月份我国对外贸易开始出现明显的好转迹象。”海关总署对此表示。国家发展改革委宏观经济研究院对外经济所所长张燕生也认为，外贸进出口的跌幅有收窄之势，这稍微让人欣慰；但这并不意味着外需有所好转，而是中国稳定外贸增长的政策和企业自主调整的举动开始见到了一些成效。

    而对3月顺差的急速回升，商务部一位高级官员在接受《每日经济新闻》采访时也指出，外贸顺差的拉大说明中国的进口还需要再扩大，尤其是在一些急需的原材料、设备和技术上。

    但另一方面，刚结束的2009年一季度，中国出口同比下降19.70%，进口则下降30.90%，累计贸易顺差仅为625.10亿美元。“降幅还是挺大的，估计国家还会继续采取积极措施支持出口。”国家信息中心经济预测部高级经济师祁京梅对媒体表示。

出口退税效果将更明显

    海关数据显示，3月份中国具有较强市场竞争优势的劳动密集型产品的出口在环比上出现了大幅的增长。

    其中，服装出口环比增长72.5%，家具增长78.1%，鞋类增长42.6%，箱包增长90.7%。而这部分产品也均出现了不同程度的同比增长。来自第一纺织网的测算也显示，3月当月，中国出口纺织品服装共121.64亿美元，较上个月增长54.89亿美元，环比增幅高达82.23%，同比增长 2.96%。

    上述商务部官员表示，出口退税政策是带动劳动密集型产品出口增长的一个重要因素，预计二季度的政策效果更明显。

    而机电等受出口萎缩影响严重的产品，在3月环比也有所突破。3月机电产品出口537.6亿美元，环比增长25.6%；钢材出口167万吨，环比增长2.2%。

进口价企稳将提振消费

    四万亿的经济刺激计划也开始在扩大内需上发挥作用，3月中国的进口值出现企稳反弹，进口价格有所回升。

    去年10月到12月，中国进口值环比分别大幅减少8.7%、19.5%和16.2%，而3月这一数据为增长14.1%。而进口价格环比也出现2.7%的上涨。

    海关总署认为，进口价格企稳反弹，对稳定生产预期，提振消费信心有积极促进作用。

    上述商务部官员进一步指出，环比数据较好，但部分初级产品进口同比继续下滑，说明企业还处在去库存化的调整中。其中，铁矿石进口同比快速增长，既显现出扩内需政策的效果，也说明去库存化的调整在加速。

世界经济或入平坦震荡期

    在3月份，中国对主要贸易伙伴进出口额环比出现大幅增长。其中，中欧双边贸易总值264.5亿美元，环比增21.2%；中美双边贸易总值226.5亿美元，环比增33.3%；中日双边贸易总值175.2亿美元，环比增19.1%。

    对此，上述商务部官员表示，这可能预示世界经济进入平坦震荡期。中国贸易数据虽然不能像去年那样高速增长，但已经进入低位回调阶段。

Bencat

In USA 4/9/09
Initial Claims in Steady, Bad State:

The good news in the latest initial claims report is that initial claims aren't worsening. They slipped to 654,000 (consensus 660,000) in the week ending April 4 from the prior week's level of 674,000. That left the four-week moving average fairly steady at 657,250 versus 658,000 the week before.

The bad news is that the level of claims still speaks to a very weak labor market, as does the level of continuing claims, which worsened to a record 5.84 million from 5.745 million in the prior week. The four-week moving average jumped to 5.648 million from 5.501 million.

There will be some relief that the headline figure for initial claims wasn't worse than expected, but the labor market, albeit a lagging indicator, clearly continues to be a growth deterrent.
08:51 ET
Deficit Drops as Total Trade Continues Downward Trend:

The February trade deficit dropped a surprisingly sharp $10.2 billion to $26.0 billion from $36.2 billion in January. This resulted from a very surprising $2.0 billion increase in exports along with a not so surprising $8.2 billion drop in imports.

The real (price adjusted) trade deficit took a similar drop to $35.6 billion from $44.0 billion. This will have a substantial upward impact on the first quarter real GDP calculation.

Real personal consumption expenditures were up in January and February (and probably March).

A boost from the trade components will help offset a plunge in business investment and it now looks like real GDP might be down at "only" about a 2% annual rate. The statistical benefit to U.S. GDP should not be overemphasized. Trade remains on a serious slide that is hurting economies around the world.

The three-month moving average of U.S. imports in February was $162.0 billion. That is down from $223.2 billion in July. U.S. exports on this basis were $128.0 billion, down from $165.1 billion in August. Lower trade hurts the global economy.

dsp

USA is going to death. These WS crooks are too greedy.