铁矿石还要跌

Luckycato

Broker UBS is the first to move with a sell recommendation on former market darling Fortescue Metals as iron ore’s price falls accelerate. At $17.25 per share it estimates “the stock prices-in a US$95-$105/dmt cfr iron ore price (assuming 85% realisation in FY22) vs UBS long-term price of US$65/t (real); this is based on lowering spot iron ore prices so EV/ EBITDA is 4.5x and FCF yield is 6.5%,” the broker said.

UBS expects the iron ore price to fall below $US100 a tonne in the coming months, before settling around $US70/t to $US80/t. “This reflects a sharper than expected slowdown in property activity in China thanks to tightening measures / Evergrande risk of default impacting confidence,” UBS said.

It’s also axed its forecast for financial 2022 dividends from $3.06 per share to $2.12 per share.

It now expects the miner to make an underlying net profit in financial 2022 of $US6.3 billion on sales of $US16.9 billion.

dsp

Thanks. I have some positions.