闲聊下大盘

littleshadan

今天有点时间来说说大盘走势。
大盘涨得时间太久有点吓人，现在看多的人越来越少，看空的越来越多，但每次下跌都被那谁拉起，搞的空头很被动，呵呵。
这种情况是不是技术分析者的噩梦？


大盘何时跌？
我估摸着就在周二，周一道琼斯还会有新高，算了个高点36214，离开周五的高点35765还有四百多点。

这次的下跌将是周线级别的下跌， 所以会制造周线级别的第一个高点，但在后面周线上可能还有第二个高点。

csw2002

I would say bulls are still safe at the moment, given that institutions are still accumulating, lack of volume increases (while prices are rising) to indicate distribution, option sentiment not quite over the top and improving market internals (based on breadth).

My prop sector correlations charts are on a buy
Institutional buying % is still in the accumulation zone
SPY volume ratios tend to bottom out before price tops. We are not quite there yet
SPX breadth is divergent - but it also means that it has a lot more room to go up as well. More importantly, this indicator tends to decline ahead of price as well
CPCE is getting quite overbought. However, this indicator also tends to top out ahead of prices. Again, we are not there yet.

With the strong seasonal coming into play, I would say bears shouldn't get their hopes up too high. While equity indices are indeed overbought and some sentiment surveys (such as AAII) are showing retail amateurs becoming too bullish, I am doubtful we will see a significant pullback here. I see consolidation/minor pullback being far more likely and subsequent higher high for SPY/SPX. Next hurdle for bulls (where a sizeable pullback is likely), time wise, would be late Nov to early Dec in order to set up a Santa rally.

Pinterest

csw2002 发表于 2021-10-25 12:43 AM
I would say bulls are still safe at the moment, given that institutions are still accumulating, lack ...

Please update often ! Thanks!

littleshadan

今日收盘 TSLA涨12.68%， 天然气涨12.69%， 道琼斯涨64点，道琼斯要加油

littleshadan

如果看特斯拉的日线图，最低的价位是2010年的7月7日，价格为2.996，大概为$3， 今天的收盘价是 $1024.86。也就是说，如果你在$3左右
买入一直持有到今天，大概10年的回报是 1024/3=341.33倍。
从2010年的7月7日到2021年的10月25日共2848个交易日，按平均一个月30天算，就是95个月，或者32个季度。
32×32=1024， 今日之收盘价1024.86， 所以特斯拉是不是走得很完美呢？