CM老大天天讲房市不到底股市不到底。我研究了一吓 SAN JOSE 的房价。 跟大家分享一下。
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Table 1: historical data of the home index and inflation in San Jose area
Qtr San Jose Inflation
Sunnyvale
Santa Clara
(MSA)
Rate HPI Rate Value
2008-4 -11.41 622.71 1.61 293.04
2008-3 -11.17 635.2 5.3 291.86
2008-2 -8.85 663.02 4.38 288.05
2008-1 -4.24 689.27 4.11 284.93
2007-4 -3.48 702.94 3.98 282.03
2007-3 -2.03 715.13 2.36 279.25
2007-2 0.46 727.41 2.65 277.61
2007-1 0.65 719.84 2.43 275.79
2006-4 2.59 728.33 1.94 274.12
2006-3 7.15 730 3.34 272.8
2006-2 10.13 724.01 4.01 270.54
2006-1 16.8 715.17 3.75 267.85
2005-4 21.63 709.88 3.74 265.37
2005-3 19.43 681.25 3.83 262.91
2005-2 23.17 657.38 2.95 260.41
2005-1 19.08 612.26 3.04 258.51
2004-4 15.11 583.6 3.32 256.56
2004-3 14.73 570.4 2.73 254.44
2004-2 7.65 533.7 2.87 252.72
2004-1 3.41 514.13 1.79 250.92
2003-4 1.95 506.96 1.9 249.8
2003-3 0.82 497.13 2.2 248.62
2003-2 2.37 495.74 2.13 247.26
2003-1 5.23 497.13 2.87 245.95
2002-4 5.31 497.22 2.2 244.2
2002-3 1.4 493.06 1.59 242.86
2002-2 -1.95 484.25 1.3 241.9
2002-1 -2.53 472.39 1.25 241.12
2001-4 0.95 472.13 1.86 240.37
2001-3 8.32 486.24 2.7 239.25
2001-2 16.68 493.92 3.38 237.65
2001-1 23.5 484.69 3.39 235.66
2000-4 28.96 467.67 3.43 233.68
2000-3 28.4 448.89 3.51 231.69
2000-2 27.04 423.29 3.33 229.68
2000-1 21.28 392.46 3.24 227.78
1999-4 13.4 362.63 2.62 225.95
1999-3 10.87 349.58 2.34 224.48
1999-2 9.82 333.19 2.11 223.17
1999-1 11.08 323.59 1.67 222
1998-4 13.06 319.75 1.55 221.08
1998-3 14.32 315.28 1.6 220.23
1998-2 13.35 303.37 1.6 219.35
1998-1 13.74 291.3 1.46 218.47
1997-4 13.21 282.79 1.87 217.68
1997-3 12.06 275.78 2.2 216.67
1997-2 10.76 267.64 2.34 215.48
1997-1 7.47 256.1 2.94 214.23
1996-4 5.32 249.79 3.19 212.67
1996-3 4.23 246.09 2.94 210.98
1996-2 3.23 241.63 2.85 209.44
1996-1 3.04 238.3 2.74 207.96
1995-4 2.45 237.16 2.65 206.55
1995-3 1.92 236.1 2.64 205.19
1995-2 0.79 234.06 3.09 203.84
1995-1 -0.99 231.26 2.84 202.28
1994-4 -1.59 231.47 2.65 200.85
1994-3 -2.06 231.63 2.88 199.53
1994-2 -2.15 232.21 2.38 198.11
1994-1 -2.18 233.6 2.52 196.93
1993-4 -2.78 235.22 2.73 195.7
1993-3 -2.75 236.51 2.75 194.37
1993-2 -2.25 237.32 3.15 193.05
1993-1 -2.31 238.83 3.2 191.54
1992-4 -1.8 241.95 3.05 190.02
1992-3 -1.44 243.22 3.1 188.58
1992-2 -1.02 242.81 3.1 187.13
1992-1 -0.71 244.49 2.87 185.69
1991-4 -1.01 246.39 2.99 184.37
1991-3 -3.67 246.78 3.88 183
1991-2 -5.21 245.33 4.85 181.24
1991-1 -6.41 246.25 5.29 179.07
1990-4 -6.12 248.91 6.22 176.73
1990-3 -1.59 256.2 5.53 174.03
1990-2 6.34 258.83 4.58 171.65
1990-1 16.7 263.13 5.23 169.71
1989-4 25.86 265.15 4.6 167.52
1989-3 32.87 260.34 4.68 165.62
1989-2 32.94 243.38 5.22 163.7
1989-1 29.62 225.46 4.83 161.59
1988-4 25.67 210.66 4.31 159.66
1988-3 20.01 195.93 4.11 157.96
1988-2 15.69 183.07 3.92 156.35
1988-1 12.28 173.93 3.97 154.84
1987-4 10.1 167.62 4.5 153.32
1987-3 9.42 163.25 4.19 151.61
1987-2 8.63 158.23 3.76 150.04
1987-1 7.75 154.9 2.2 148.64
1986-4 7.51 152.24 1.28 147.83
1986-3 7.01 149.19 1.63 147.36
1986-2 6.58 145.65 1.62 146.76
1986-1 7.8 143.75 3.09 146.17
1985-4 7.7 141.6 3.51 145.05
1985-3 8.43 139.4 3.35 143.78
1985-2 8.08 136.65 3.74 142.59
1985-1 6.79 133.35 3.58 141.27
1984-4 7.3 131.47 4.09 140.02
1984-3 6.18 128.56 4.25 138.6
1984-2 5.15 126.43 4.34 137.14
1984-1 4.67 124.86 4.53 135.67
1983-4 4.02 122.52 3.3 134.15
1983-3 2.52 121.06 2.63 133.05
1983-2 3.07 120.23 3.34 132.18
1983-1 2.03 119.28 3.6 131.09
1982-4 -3.26 117.78 4.52 129.92
1982-3 -1.19 118.08 5.78 128.47
1982-2 -0.64 116.65 6.75 126.64
1982-1 3.01 116.9 7.6 124.54
1981-4 9.66 121.76 9.55 122.21
1981-3 10.68 119.52 10.84 119.36
1981-2 13.42 117.41 9.78 116.21
1981-1 13.48 113.48 11.24 113.44
1980-4 17.87 111.03 12.65 110.34
1980-3 20.89 107.97 12.87 106.96
1980-2 23.85 103.51 14.51 103.62
1980-1 25.18 100 14.28 100
1979-4 23.34 94.19 12.66 96.55
1979-3 20.87 89.31 11.75 93.59
1979-2 13.43 83.58 10.74 90.92
1979-1 10.66 79.88 9.74 88.54
1978-4 8.83 76.36 8.95 86.43
1978-3 9.3 73.89 7.95 84.54
1978-2 18.83 73.68 6.96 82.89
1978-1 26.66 72.17 6.61 81.48
1977-4 30.27 70.16 6.6 80.15
1977-3 31.84 67.6 6.68 78.85
1977-2 26.58 62 6.85 77.56
1977-1 22.89 56.98 5.86 76.25
1976-4 22.25 53.86 5.07 75.15
1976-3 NA 51.27 5.52 74.21
1976-2 NA 48.98 6.07 73.2
1976-1 NA 46.36 6.36 72.1
1975-4 NA 44.05 7.25 70.97
1975-3 NA NA 8.74 69.71
1975-2 NA NA 9.69 68.22
1975-1 NA NA 11.09 66.61
Assumption:
A reasonable home appreciation should be the product of inflation and population increase. Other than that is speculation.
Table 1 shows the historical data of the home index and inflation in San Jose area. The ratio of price to inflation is plotted in chart2.
Chart 1 shows the population increase is pretty linear. Well we see some people moved out this area after the dot.com bubble.
Chart2 shows all together. Blue dot is the price-to-inflation ratio, which I suppose to line up with the population increase, the green line.
You draw your own conclusion. Mine is year 2000 if the inflation and population rates are kept somehow the same. |