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[技术分析] We could be building a top here

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发表于 2021-10-29 01:18 AM | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式


As expected (see my last post here. equity has held up after a brief decline. I expect SPX to form a trading range here. Once the trading range matures, SPX could (I stress could) break down, assuming technical picture continues its current trajectory.

My prop sectors correlation indicator is now neutral
Institutional buying % is finally moving towards distribution zone (though it's still in accumulation - hence - don't jump the gun)
SPY volume ratio finally appears to have bottomed out
There are multiple degrees of breadth divergences
However we need to see breadth indicator turning down first - while prices continue to move higher - see previous 2 examples prior to major declines
CPCE is getting quite frothy

Give it time, say another week. By then, the above set of indicators should tell us which way SPX will move.

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发表于 2021-10-29 07:54 AM | 显示全部楼层
cross fingers

短期市场会喘气休整一下,市场会把注意力放在下周FOMC的TAPERING上。

Q4的经济的不确定性已经摆在台面,而消费者信心指数却在上升,失业率下降,这符合经济复苏的特征。

市场这次对Q3季报的反应极其苛刻,基本上是有拉有压。保持慢牛格局。

我个人认为会在高位振荡后在上冲一下。

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回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

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发表于 2021-10-29 03:46 PM | 显示全部楼层
老灯 发表于 2021-10-29 07:54 AM
cross fingers

短期市场会喘气休整一下,市场会把注意力放在下周FOMC的TAPERING上。


我的感觉和灯哥一样,下面二个月应该还有一波行情,可能还不小。当然且行且珍惜,注意风险。

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回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

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发表于 2021-11-4 11:04 PM | 显示全部楼层
ninemao 发表于 2021-10-29 03:46 PM
我的感觉和灯哥一样,下面二个月应该还有一波行情,可能还不小。当然且行且珍惜,注意风险。

我们可能还在半路上,熊熊别急,耐心等一下
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发表于 2021-11-5 10:49 AM | 显示全部楼层
Agreed, seems like a major correction is on the way for some large tech stocks which have material impact on the index. The market is quite frothy in some places.

The cyclical stocks underperformed this year due to supply chain constraint should have more room to appreciate, this will somewhat limit the magnitude of the pull back at the index level.  
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