Key time

csw2002

In my last thread, I advised that the pullback has reached the minimum target (5% decline) for the correction. Since then, I have been short term bullish (after wed close and then again, after friday close). SPX has reached all 3 targets I set for bounces - at 455x, 464x and finally 470x. The critical question now is whether we are going to have a 2nd leg down or not. I have to admit that most of my intermediate term indicators (which I won't bother posting as not many seem to be interested anyway in even clicking thru to the charts) have turned bullish since end of the last week. However, one critical indicator so far has refused to budge - that is fund flow ratio for SH (inverse equity ETF). At every historical 5%+ retracement since 2014, we have seen a surge of inflow in SH. However, this surge is entirely missing in action so far. This worries me in terms of whether we are going to see this requirement fulfilled later - at a second leg down. On the other hand, volatility ETF's fund flow ratios have seen enough outflow for a bottom. What these indicators are suggesting is that VIX has made a top and if we are going to get a second leg down, it's mostly going to happen with less volatility and most likely a higher low.

pashmina112

多谢及时更新！ 您的指标对很我有帮助， 多谢！

TNA

Somehow your pictures are blocked to me, can you post your pictures right here at Hutong?

Thank you !

superyoyo

Thank you for the updates. I’ve been waiting to read your thread.

npnt

So any dip would be a buying opportunity, I guess.

胡同0110

谢谢分享，关于SH我有个问题，从你的图看，这应该是一个滞后指标而不是一个领先指标。如果这个理解正确的化，那这个SH指标只是还没来得及拐头。另外我最近也在收集更多的数据，你是怎么统计资金流入流出的？是根据每天该基金的总值吗还是用了专门的数据API？

csw2002

胡同0110 发表于 2021-12-8 06:42 PM
谢谢分享，关于SH我有个问题，从你的图看，这应该是一个滞后指标而不是一个领先指标。如果这个理解正确的化 ...

The fund flow ratio doesn't bottom ahead of spy, but after spy. However, ratios spike ahead of bottoms and it's a leading/coincident indicator (historically). Data r from proshare

fortune1212

are we on the second leg?

csw2002

fortune1212 发表于 2021-12-9 05:04 PM
are we on the second leg?

On the balance of probability, I would say this is the entry point for getting long again, intermediate term. I closed my short term long position on tuesday close, not sure about where the indices are moving towards. My data (incomplete as is for today) are looking increasingly bullish.

csw2002

I have to give the benefit of the doubt the bulls after today. Despite a substantial decline today (for NDX and RUT), institutions kept buying. I expect equity indices to rally, soon, hopefully

pashmina112

Thanks for the updates!

fortune1212

Thanks a lot!!!