KEY TAKEAWAYS
The Santa Claus rally refers to the tendency for the stock market to rally over the last weeks of December into the new year.
Theories for its existence include increased holiday shopping, optimism fueled by the holiday spirit, and institutional investors settling their books before going on vacation.
Regardless of the reason, more than two-thirds of Decembers dating back to the 1960s have resulted in positive gains for shareholders.
Still, as with many market anomalies, it may just be random, and there is no guarantee it will continue into the future.
根据长期提供周期性和季节性市场趋势分析的股票交易者年鉴,圣诞老人的反弹是一种季节性现象。 根据 2016 年版的年鉴,“自 1969 年以来,圣诞老人涨势在过去 45 个假期中的 34 个都产生了正回报——一年的最后五个交易日和新年后的前两个交易日。平均 这些天的累计回报为 1.4%,平均而言,在反弹的 7 天中,每一天的回报都是正的。”
许多人认为圣诞老人的反弹是人们购买股票的结果,预期一月份的股价会上涨,也称为一月效应。 此外,有一些研究指出价值股在 12 月的表现优于成长股。 值得注意的是,主动管理型共同基金的许多选股者倾向于投资价值型股票。 |