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[灌水] 板块轮动,找价值洼地

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发表于 2022-1-15 11:11 AM | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式


周5银行季报引发金融板块乃至道指下挫,意料之中。

有人说是因为JPM的季报不好,其实不然,毕竟是双B,C的季报也很靓丽。但都跌了,原因只有一个,季报前涨得太好,季报后总得挑点骨头。

相反,像科技板块最近一直被打压,借托估值过高. 是不是砸出黄金坑,月底前就知道。

我个人趋向于股市是做板块轮动,风水轮流转,后面天枰会倾向于科技板块(如果DEEP 还在睡觉的话)

月盈则亏, 月亏则盈。

XLE.png

XLF.png

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由于FED要抗通胀,升息回收银子,市场普遍在找价值洼地,成长股会有不小的压力。然而只有木头姐还在抛售要抗通缩。
ARK已经腰斩,很多韭菜都已经熬不住了。周边也有许多朋友问我怎么办?我的回答是,补仓不是时候,因为它们不是价值洼地。
指数基金可以AVG DOWN,但ARK不可以。

价值洼地有没有?我觉得F算一个,看了一下公司的基本面,除了Debt较高外(因为有资产抵押)其他都还不错。目前TSLA的皮卡计划延后,
而福特F-150 Lighting 越来越受关注,如果芯片瓶颈得到解决的话,以F的生产能力,它占领电动皮卡市场就不是故事,而是股市。

F.png

祝大家交易顺利,长周末




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发表于 2022-1-15 03:02 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 deep 于 2022-1-15 03:03 PM 编辑

能躺赢当然接着睡,更何况是抱着能能睡。

谈价值洼地,能源是不会缺席的。如果按照习惯性思维,看到的只是能源作为大宗商品的属性,其实时代已经变了。举个例子来说,S&P所有板块中,能源的股息率已经是最高的,而且是大幅度领先其它板块。

高通胀,加息缩表,高股息,盈利增长,供求关系,地缘政治,几乎近期关系市场的每一个关键词,能源都能受益受到追捧。这大概可以解释为什么能源板块在21年夺冠,新年后还能继续大幅领先。

我在新年开篇中说,能源继续走强,至少3-6个月后再评估,是相对保守的思路。如果事情的发展继续有利于能源,走3年都是有可能的。

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发表于 2022-1-15 03:18 PM | 显示全部楼层
谢谢分享,周末愉快!

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发表于 2022-1-15 03:25 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 Maylin 于 2022-1-15 03:41 PM 编辑

老灯大师: JPM的季报不好的。 跟去年同期比是增长速度下降。。仔细读它的季报, 贷款,市场投资交易等都是低于去年同期的。。它有一个1.8 亿的收入是因为疫情期间准备给坏账用的预备金释放出来的。。它的贷款部预期要今年年底才会有起色。。JPm已经连续三个季度收益下降了。。去年都靠2020年那些坏账准备金让财报好看点儿的。。银行昨天的季报只有WFC是高于预期的。。但 WFC有一个问题是因为它以前的违规操作,所以有一个贷款上限。。citi 的股价目前是合理区间而已。。银行的贷款业务滞后说明经济不景气啊……JPM的市场交易收入也递减,说明不光是小散们做不好这个市场,连那些有高端技术的大银行也束手无策啊。。这样想也就安了。。

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发表于 2022-1-15 03:28 PM | 显示全部楼层
投资银行股需要一点耐心如果你打算长持的话。。跌到诱人的价格买入是可以长持的,因为有股息,PE低。。我在季报前把银行股都卖了。。等机会再进。。要知道泥沙俱下,安有完卵?

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发表于 2022-1-15 03:45 PM | 显示全部楼层
我反而觉得ARKK 木头姐的那些股可以逢低买入了。。已经砍人又砍。。那些所谓的价值股HD, cost 等,只要实地去那些地方转一圈就知道大不如以前了。。Home Depot 更是空荡荡的。。所以股票不跌才怪呢

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 楼主| 发表于 2022-1-15 04:32 PM | 显示全部楼层
Maylin 发表于 2022-1-15 03:25 PM
老灯大师: JPM的季报不好的。 跟去年同期比是增长速度下降。。仔细读它的季报, 贷款,市场投资交易等都是 ...

你讲的不错,不能看季报数据,要看这三家银行的业务增长,它们是不一样的

JPM 的业务是多样化的。Total markets revenue of $5.3 billion fell 11%, including a drop of 16% in fixed-income markets and a 2% dip in equity markets.
CFRA MAINTAINS HOLD OPINION ON SHARES OF JPMORGAN CHASE & CO.
We think JPM's shares are priced just below our view of fair value, which is our $175 target price on forward P/E of 14.6x our 2022 earnings estimate, above 12.1x peer average and above JPM's five-year historic average of 13.0x. JPM trades at premium to peers on P/TBV of 2.3x vs. the 1.3x peer average. We lower our 2022 EPS by $0.20 to $12.00 and introduce new 2023's at $13.25, excluding potential 2022 net loan loss reversals or charges that impact earnings. JPM posts Q4 2021 EPS of $2.86, a $0.20 earnings miss to consensus. We think JPM is gaining wallet share to 9.5% in investment banking. Equity underwriting was up 12% Y/Y, debt underwriting +14, and M&A advisory fees +86%. Asset and Wealth Management grew asset under management to $3.1 trillion, up 18%. Consumer bank showed 27% decline in card income with reward adjustment and on-time payments by cardholders, home lending -26%, but consumer loans +7%. Net interest income was +3% Y/Y and +4% Q/Q that we see higher gains in 2022 with Fed's rate rise regime.

C 主要是国际业务的整合,也是多样化
CFRA RAISES TO BUY FROM HOLD ON SHARES OF CITIGROUP INC.
We are positive on actions taken to streamline the bank in 2022 with new CEO leadership. We keep our $76 target price on forward 2022 P/E of 9.7x, below its five-year historic average at 10.4x. C will become a more streamlined global bank with a greater focus on expanding corporate and wealth management markets after a planned sale of consumer banking in Mexico and Asia markets. We think this is a successful playbook to drive higher returns and narrow public discount (0.9x P/NTBV) while direct peers trade at premium (1.3x P/NTBV). We are lowering our 2022 EPS estimate by $0.35 to $7.85 and introduce new 2023's at $8.50. C post Q4 2021 EPS of $1.46, a $0.20 earnings miss due to higher expense from new initiatives. Total Inst. Client Group revenue +4% Y/Y was -2% Y/Y for EMEA, North America +11%, Latin America +15%, and Asia -5%. Global Consumer Bank reported 6% revenue Y/Y, with North America -6%, Latin America -4%, and Asia -9%. NII was flat Y/Y and +1% Q/Q and non-interest income was +3% Y/Y and -8% Q/Q.

WFC 主要得益于借贷业务的正常化,比较单一。
CFRA REITERATES BUY OPINION ON SHARES OF WELLS FARGO & COMPANY
We are confident in WFC delivering a 2022 transformation that drives higher capital returns. We raise our target by $9 to $61 on forward P/E of 15.4x our '22 EPS, above 3-year historic average of 13.2x, given our view that WFC can realize higher revenue and profitability. We lower 2022 EPS $0.05 to $3.95 and introduce new 2023's at $4.50. WFC post Q4 2021 EPS of $1.25, $0.25 earnings beat to consensus. Net Interest Income (NII) was flat Y/Y, but +4% Q/Q as rates and loan volume and we see higher NII in 2022 with Federal Reserve's rate rise regime. Total noninterest income in Q4 2021 rose 27% Y/Y and 17% Q/Q with strong investment banking fees +38% Y/Y, card fee income +14% Y/Y, deposit-related fees +10% Y/Y, partly offset weakness in mortgage banking fees -14% Y/Y and brokerage commission fees -5%. Related to NII, interest earnings assets widened 7 bps Q/Q to 2.31%, while interest-bearing liabilities narrowed 2 bps to 0.29%. Result is NIM of 2.11% that we upside in 2022 with higher rates on all loans.


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发表于 2022-1-15 04:42 PM | 显示全部楼层
老灯 发表于 2022-1-15 04:32 PM
你讲的不错,不能看季报数据,要看这三家银行的业务增长,它们是不一样的

JPM 的业务是多样化的。Tota ...

IPO去年是爆炸式的。。今年还会吗? 总之它的借贷那块不行。。说明很大的问题。。。它们自己都降低前瞻。。预计今年底和明年才会有好转……

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发表于 2022-1-15 04:50 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 Maylin 于 2022-1-15 05:19 PM 编辑

对我来说一个公司具有成长能力才是价值投资,反之home depot 之类吃了房地产的红利大涨一波,结果也会在潮水退潮后被剥去一层又一层皮的。。就像木头姐的股票被超卖了有超卖一样的,这些都是华尔街的把戏。。都是此一时,彼一时的。。我对Ford也心存质疑。。它们的电动卡车是受欢迎,但是这只是占它们所有造车的产量的百分之十,它们的其他车的产量是占90%的,所以基本上就是烧钱。。所以Ford 的转型是有一段很艰难的路要走的。。股价涨对他们公司圈钱是有帮助的。。否则资金对福特是个严重问题

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发表于 2022-1-15 04:59 PM | 显示全部楼层
论价值股,洼地。。我还是再次推荐intel。orcl 。以前推荐过一次。。当然现在是否能买不知。。我都是40 几的时候买入的。。

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发表于 2022-1-15 07:17 PM | 显示全部楼层
deep 发表于 2022-1-15 03:02 PM
能躺赢当然接着睡,更何况是抱着能能睡。

谈价值洼地,能源是不会缺席的。如果按照习惯性思维,看到的只 ...

油股不错,好多都是历史新高了,看样子向上还有空间。这和他们的高分红,高利润分不开

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发表于 2022-1-15 07:49 PM | 显示全部楼层
现在可以找到不少PE值低于20甚至低于15的高质量的红利股票。

每季度等着拿红利就可以了。

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发表于 2022-1-15 08:02 PM | 显示全部楼层
CrisisInvesting 发表于 2022-1-15 07:49 PM
现在可以找到不少PE值低于20甚至低于15的高质量的红利股票。

每季度等着拿红利就可以了。

请问有那些可以推荐的。 谢谢
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发表于 2022-1-15 08:04 PM | 显示全部楼层
ninemao 发表于 2022-1-15 07:17 PM
油股不错,好多都是历史新高了,看样子向上还有空间。这和他们的高分红,高利润分不开

我也觉得油股不错

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发表于 2022-1-15 10:11 PM | 显示全部楼层
CrisisInvesting 发表于 2022-1-15 07:49 PM
现在可以找到不少PE值低于20甚至低于15的高质量的红利股票。

每季度等着拿红利就可以了。

同问, 同问,推荐几个吧?

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发表于 2022-1-16 05:52 PM | 显示全部楼层
阿方 发表于 2022-1-15 10:11 PM
同问, 同问,推荐几个吧?

3 Pharma Stocks With Especially Juicy Dividends
These drugmakers should have no problems keeping the dividends flowing -- and growing.


Keith Speights, David Jagielski, And Prosper Junior Bakiny
(TMFFishBiz)
Jan 16, 2022 at 11:31AM
Author Bio
Key Points
AbbVie is a Dividend Aristocrat that also performed quite well over the past year.
Gilead Sciences has increased its dividend 51% over the last five years and should keep the streak going in 2022.
Pfizer is a cash cow with a strong and stable dividend.
Motley Fool Issues Rare “All In” Buy Alert

Big pharmaceutical companies usually make big bucks. And many of them return a portion of their profits to investors in the form of dividends.

We asked three Motley Fool contributors to pick the pharma stocks that they think have especially juicy dividends. Here's why they chose AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV), Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD), and Pfizer (NYSE:PFE).

A test tube with a dollar sign at the bottom.
IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.

A Dividend Aristocrat that's performing well
Keith Speights (AbbVie): There's so much to like about AbbVie's dividend that it's hard to know where to begin. But I'll start with its attractive yield of 4.2%. What's even better, though, is that AbbVie is a Dividend Aristocrat -- an elite group of S&P 500 members that have increased their dividends for at least 25 consecutive years.

Unlike some dividend stocks, AbbVie has also delivered strong growth lately. Its shares soared 26% last year. With dividends included, the drugmaker's total return easily beat the S&P 500's performance.

There are a couple of concerns for AbbVie, though. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recently placed additional warnings on the company's JAK inhibitor Rinvoq. This could limit the sales of the drug to some extent. Also, AbbVie's top-selling drug Humira faces biosimilar rivals in the U.S. beginning in 2023. Sales are expected to decline significantly.

However, AbbVie's dividend shouldn't be threatened at all. The company could also continue generating solid growth in the second half of this decade after the initial impact of Humira losing exclusivity. AbbVie has several other growth drivers, including autoimmune disease drug Skyrizi and blood cancer drug Venclexta.  

This biotech has boosted its dividend 51% in five years
David Jagielski (Gilead Sciences): Investing in a high-yielding dividend stock can be a great way to make the most of your money. But to ensure that inflation isn't chipping away at that cash flow over time, you'll also want to invest in a company that raises its dividend payments. With Gilead Sciences, investors are getting the best of both worlds -- a high yield of around 4% that has also been growing over the years.

Five years ago, Gilead was paying its investors a quarterly dividend of $0.47. Today, those payments are up to $0.71, rising by 51% during that time and averaging a compound annual growth rate of 8.6%. And that already-juicy dividend can get even more mouth-watering as the company's payout ratio sits below 50%.

In Gilead's latest quarterly update, sales rose 13% year over year to $7.4 billion. The company also reported net income of $2.6 billion, which equated to a per-share (diluted) profit of $2.05. And in the nine months leading up to that date, the earnings per share (EPS) topped $4.63. That's easily enough to cover the current dividend, which on an annual basis would total $2.84. And it leaves room for some generous increases as well.

Now may be an optimal time to buy Gilead stock. The company typically reports its fourth-quarter earnings in early February. Gilead could announce another dividend hike then as well. Since 2015 when the company began making dividend payments, Gilead has consistently raised its payouts each subsequent year (and normally in February).

With solid financials and the company likely to continue receiving a boost from its COVID-19 treatment, Veklury, it's probable that this dividend could get even juicier than it already is today.

A cash cow with a stable dividend
Prosper Junior Bakiny (Pfizer): When it comes to dividend stocks, high yields are great, but the ability to sustain dividend increases is even better. That's what pharma giant Pfizer provides. The company's current yield of 2.75% is well above the S&P 500's average of 1.27%. But just as important is Pfizer's very conservative cash payout ratio of 29.64%. For context, a payout ratio below the 60% range is generally considered good.

This implies that Pfizer has considerable room to sustain dividend increases in large part thanks to the cash it has been generating over the past year. Pfizer's free cash flow soared by 126.1% to $29.2 billion in the trailing twelve-month period. We can attribute that primarily to Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty. This vaccine has become a blockbuster product -- and then some -- in its first year on the market.

Pfizer said it would generate $36 billion from Comirnaty in the fiscal year 2021. Given recent developments surrounding the pandemic, 2022 should be another excellent year for the vaccine. Management thinks sales of Comirnaty could come in at $29 billion this year. Pfizer's coronavirus-related business alone, which includes Comirnaty and Paxlovid, a COVID-19 therapy that recently earned authorization, will generate more sales than dozens of large corporations will this year.

But Pfizer has other tools at its disposal. The company's anticoagulant Eliquis, cancer medicine Xtandi, as well as its biosimilar business, are meaningfully contributing to its overall performance. Even immunosuppressant Xeljanz could return to growth this year despite the regulatory headwinds it encountered last year.

Lastly, Pfizer's pipeline includes 29 ongoing phase 3 clinical trials. Expect new products and label expansions to strengthen an already solid lineup.

And all of this at a reasonable price, too. Pfizer is trading at just 9.1 times forward earnings compared to an average price-to-earnings ratio of 13.3 for the pharma industry.

In short, Pfizer provides a little bit of everything most investors look for: high growth, reasonable value, and stable income in the form of dividends. Too juicy to pass up, indeed

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发表于 2022-1-16 05:53 PM | 显示全部楼层
missrainyday 发表于 2022-1-15 08:02 PM
请问有那些可以推荐的。 谢谢

3 Pharma Stocks With Especially Juicy Dividends
These drugmakers should have no problems keeping the dividends flowing -- and growing.


Keith Speights, David Jagielski, And Prosper Junior Bakiny
(TMFFishBiz)
Jan 16, 2022 at 11:31AM
Author Bio
Key Points
AbbVie is a Dividend Aristocrat that also performed quite well over the past year.
Gilead Sciences has increased its dividend 51% over the last five years and should keep the streak going in 2022.
Pfizer is a cash cow with a strong and stable dividend.
Motley Fool Issues Rare “All In” Buy Alert

Big pharmaceutical companies usually make big bucks. And many of them return a portion of their profits to investors in the form of dividends.

We asked three Motley Fool contributors to pick the pharma stocks that they think have especially juicy dividends. Here's why they chose AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV), Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD), and Pfizer (NYSE:PFE).

A test tube with a dollar sign at the bottom.
IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.

A Dividend Aristocrat that's performing well
Keith Speights (AbbVie): There's so much to like about AbbVie's dividend that it's hard to know where to begin. But I'll start with its attractive yield of 4.2%. What's even better, though, is that AbbVie is a Dividend Aristocrat -- an elite group of S&P 500 members that have increased their dividends for at least 25 consecutive years.

Unlike some dividend stocks, AbbVie has also delivered strong growth lately. Its shares soared 26% last year. With dividends included, the drugmaker's total return easily beat the S&P 500's performance.

There are a couple of concerns for AbbVie, though. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recently placed additional warnings on the company's JAK inhibitor Rinvoq. This could limit the sales of the drug to some extent. Also, AbbVie's top-selling drug Humira faces biosimilar rivals in the U.S. beginning in 2023. Sales are expected to decline significantly.

However, AbbVie's dividend shouldn't be threatened at all. The company could also continue generating solid growth in the second half of this decade after the initial impact of Humira losing exclusivity. AbbVie has several other growth drivers, including autoimmune disease drug Skyrizi and blood cancer drug Venclexta.  

This biotech has boosted its dividend 51% in five years
David Jagielski (Gilead Sciences): Investing in a high-yielding dividend stock can be a great way to make the most of your money. But to ensure that inflation isn't chipping away at that cash flow over time, you'll also want to invest in a company that raises its dividend payments. With Gilead Sciences, investors are getting the best of both worlds -- a high yield of around 4% that has also been growing over the years.

Five years ago, Gilead was paying its investors a quarterly dividend of $0.47. Today, those payments are up to $0.71, rising by 51% during that time and averaging a compound annual growth rate of 8.6%. And that already-juicy dividend can get even more mouth-watering as the company's payout ratio sits below 50%.

In Gilead's latest quarterly update, sales rose 13% year over year to $7.4 billion. The company also reported net income of $2.6 billion, which equated to a per-share (diluted) profit of $2.05. And in the nine months leading up to that date, the earnings per share (EPS) topped $4.63. That's easily enough to cover the current dividend, which on an annual basis would total $2.84. And it leaves room for some generous increases as well.

Now may be an optimal time to buy Gilead stock. The company typically reports its fourth-quarter earnings in early February. Gilead could announce another dividend hike then as well. Since 2015 when the company began making dividend payments, Gilead has consistently raised its payouts each subsequent year (and normally in February).

With solid financials and the company likely to continue receiving a boost from its COVID-19 treatment, Veklury, it's probable that this dividend could get even juicier than it already is today.

A cash cow with a stable dividend
Prosper Junior Bakiny (Pfizer): When it comes to dividend stocks, high yields are great, but the ability to sustain dividend increases is even better. That's what pharma giant Pfizer provides. The company's current yield of 2.75% is well above the S&P 500's average of 1.27%. But just as important is Pfizer's very conservative cash payout ratio of 29.64%. For context, a payout ratio below the 60% range is generally considered good.

This implies that Pfizer has considerable room to sustain dividend increases in large part thanks to the cash it has been generating over the past year. Pfizer's free cash flow soared by 126.1% to $29.2 billion in the trailing twelve-month period. We can attribute that primarily to Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty. This vaccine has become a blockbuster product -- and then some -- in its first year on the market.

Pfizer said it would generate $36 billion from Comirnaty in the fiscal year 2021. Given recent developments surrounding the pandemic, 2022 should be another excellent year for the vaccine. Management thinks sales of Comirnaty could come in at $29 billion this year. Pfizer's coronavirus-related business alone, which includes Comirnaty and Paxlovid, a COVID-19 therapy that recently earned authorization, will generate more sales than dozens of large corporations will this year.

But Pfizer has other tools at its disposal. The company's anticoagulant Eliquis, cancer medicine Xtandi, as well as its biosimilar business, are meaningfully contributing to its overall performance. Even immunosuppressant Xeljanz could return to growth this year despite the regulatory headwinds it encountered last year.

Lastly, Pfizer's pipeline includes 29 ongoing phase 3 clinical trials. Expect new products and label expansions to strengthen an already solid lineup.

And all of this at a reasonable price, too. Pfizer is trading at just 9.1 times forward earnings compared to an average price-to-earnings ratio of 13.3 for the pharma industry.

In short, Pfizer provides a little bit of everything most investors look for: high growth, reasonable value, and stable income in the form of dividends. Too juicy to pass up, indeed

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发表于 2022-1-16 08:31 PM | 显示全部楼层
很多分析师推荐oil, financial, pharma/healthcare sector... 还有一些推荐faang。 Tom Lee 's top picks are oil, faang. healthcare...很多分析师推荐Amzn...

我觉得Fed 有可能三月开始加息, 加息两次之后, stock market tank, 然后fed 停止加息, 只是缩表。 inflation 现在可能已经peak了。。。现在的确是做shopping  list 的时候,希望看到更多这样的讨论。

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