05/12/2009 大盘回顾 （No Selling Pressure）

Cobra

	Trend	Momentum	Comments - Sample for using the trend table. Warning: This is NOT a trading recommendation!
Long-term	Down		Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend.
Intermediate	Up	Overbought	According to $NYA50R, market might be topped.
Short-term	Up	Neutral

Report Focused On	Buyable dip or the market topped?
Today’s Summary	Another day of orderly retreat, expect a rebound tomorrow.

 

7.1.2 NYSE - TICK (30 min)，今天的下跌还是没有-1000以下的TICK readings，这就是说there's no urgency of sellings，因此这两天的下跌是pullback，而不是start of down leg。不过，由于1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)，依然有6个unfilled gap，因此buy dip要谨慎，特别是早盘高开的话，因为俺始终怀疑这第7个gap能否hold。

 

明天呢，可能收绿，理由有2：

 

7.0.7 SPX and VIX Divergence Watch，VIX和SPX今天都跌了，而最近此类情况共发生了5次，每次第二天都收绿了。

 

www.sentimentrader.com的short-term model extremely oversold了。这个oversold，顺便说，在downtrend的情况下工作的不是很好，因此明天反弹的强度将有助于了解是否downtrend begins。

 

 

1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min)，这个图看一下，low priority，可能是Kiss Channel Goodbye，也可能是Complex Head and Shoulders Top in the forming。当然由于现在还是uptrend，因此俺不sure最终能否play out。

 

3.4.2 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO 30 min)，Oil的negative divergence太多了，因此有可能pullback。

 

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