重磅 ◇ 加拿大央行可能停止加息！花旗银行叫停人民币速汇业务！

Cobra

当地时间5月17日，黄三水惊闻两个消息。

1、加拿大央行副行长Tony Gravelle证实，加拿大央行可能因为房地产抵押贷款风险而暂停加息！

2、大名鼎鼎的花旗银行宣布自2022年6月26日起，花旗银行（中国）将全面停止提供全球速汇通服务，同时用户的收款人名单中全球速汇通收款人信息将被自动移除。



图自微信图库

黄三水说，前者意味着加拿大住房抵押贷款的风险已经大到另央行投鼠忌器的程度。后者则意味着资金的跨境流动又出现了新的变化。这两件事对市场的直接影响有多大还不好判断，但确实引起了巨大的市场情绪波动。

根据公开报道，加拿大央行副行长Tony Gravelle表示，房地产贷款或许有巨大的泡沫，加息有刺破泡沫的可能，所以对房地产抵押贷款的保护优先级有可能高于抑制通胀。

也就是说现在的加拿大面对两瓶毒药，一瓶是“恶性通胀”，一瓶是“房地产泡沫”，而央行正在倾向于吞下第一瓶。

黄三水所，吞下第一瓶意味着全体民众为卑劣的货币政策买单，所有靠工薪维持生计的民众都要面对生活水平下降的威胁。早知如此，加拿大央行之前的政策就是有问题的。

Tony Gravelle解释说，在2020年之前，加拿大人债务收入比最高是181%，而到2021年底，已经达到了186%。高债务比将会使加拿大家庭对利率更加敏感。

所谓债务收入比186%的含义就是每收入100加元就要偿还186元的债务，这明显是早晚还不上的节奏啊。以爱借钱闻名世界的美国债务收入比也只有80%多，而经济学中健康的债务收入比为低于36%。

加拿大人的债务收入比已经是健康值的5倍之多，风险之大不难想象。

Tony Gravelle在报告的最后直言，“可能导致我们暂停加息的因素是，许多家庭为了进入房市而承担了更多的债务，加息将使他们倍受打击。”



黄三水说，如果加拿大央行不能按照预期加息，那么对房地产市场的未来就要重新判断了，投资者是没有能力从大局出发的，也不会关照央行的难处，你不加息或者加息不到位我就继续炒。



但前面提到的第二件事就和部分国内来的投资客有密切关系了。



目前，加元兑人民币汇率已经摸到5.28，而且涨势不减，所以换汇转移资金的需求也很旺盛，但就在这个关键时点，花旗银行（中国）官网发布《关于花旗银行全球速汇通服务变更的通知》称：


1、自2022年6月17日起，用户将无法通过花旗全球速汇通服务（Citibank Global Transfer）向美国花旗银行账户进行转账或接受来自美国花旗银行账户的汇款。

2、自2022年6月26日起，花旗银行（中国）将全面停止提供全球速汇通服务，同时用户的收款人名单中全球速汇通收款人信息将被自动移除。






图源：花旗银行（中国）官网



最新的通知意味着，花旗银行全球速汇通在花旗银行（中国）停止服务，其他国家/地区也将无法使用花旗全球速汇通向花旗银行中国的账户进行转账。

在此之前，花旗全球速汇通为花旗银行全球个人账户之间提供外币跨境汇款服务。全球16个国家/地区的境外花旗银行账户可以提供对花旗银行中国的账户即时速汇服务。

现在还不知道，暂停速汇业务只是花旗银行内部的业务调整还是有其他没有公开的因素，但对有跨境资金转移需求的国内投资者来说，无疑是一种信号。

黄三水也说，很多事，越早越好。

Cobra

原文：https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/05/the-perfect-storm/

我就知道中文报道断章取义。副行长其实是说要把利息加到2%到3%的netural状态，然后下面是继续加还是暂停，取决于经济的情况，房地产减缓可能是暂停加息的原因，但是他也提到了，如果房地产继续增长，那就会是继续加息的理由！

But here’s where I want to discuss some of the nuances of the future path of interest rates. Economists are notorious for saying “on the one hand this, but on the other hand that.” And I’m about to live up to the stereotype. As we said in April, we could pause our interest rate increases when we get close to the neutral rate, which is a level of rates that neither stimulates nor weighs on the economy. Or we could raise interest rates beyond neutral levels. Let me elaborate on those two scenarios.

First, what might lead us to pause our policy rate increases as the rate enters our estimated range for neutral of 2% to 3%? （注意这段，他是要把利息加到这个范围后再决定是否加息，不是说房产一跌，他就不加了，中文媒体大概太想房价永远涨下去了！）One reason would be if price increases reversed course. Commodity prices could start to decline, especially if the war in Ukraine is resolved. Another reason is related to the bullwhip effect. Spending habits shifted dramatically into goods and out of services at the outset of the pandemic. But now the economy is almost fully open. Because of this, spending on goods could decline faster than we expect, just as goods supply and inventories finally expand. Faced with excess supply, retailers and manufacturers could put large discounts on goods. This too could reverse observed price increases.

Another factor that might lead us to pause is that many households have taken on more debt to get into the housing market. At the end of 2021, the household debt-to-income ratio was 186%, above the pre-pandemic level of 181%. And rising interest rates are designed to slow the economy by making borrowing more expensive. That tends to slow sectors like housing. But this slowing might be amplified this time around because highly indebted households will face high debt-servicing costs and will likely reduce household spending more than they would have otherwise. Our base-case scenario includes a slowdown in housing activity. But we could see a larger-than-expected slowdown due to higher indebtedness and unsustainably high housing prices.（这段是他提及可能暂停加息的一个理由：房地产）。

Now let me explore what would cause us to raise the policy rate modestly above neutral levels. Global supply chain issues could be more persistent. In addition, we could get a stronger boost in consumer spending as COVID-19 restrictions ease and people spend more of the savings they accumulated during the pandemic than we currently expect.

We may also need to raise rates above neutral because parts of the economy may be less sensitive to rate hikes than in the past.（这段是他说可能继续加息超过neutral范文的几个可能，中文媒体故意忽略了这段！） That’s because, on average, Canadians are in better shape financially than they were before the pandemic. For example, the average household has accumulated $12,000 in liquid assets, and Canadians have reduced non-mortgage debt balances.4 In addition, housing activity might be supported by factors that are not directly related to interest rate movements. Specifically, we could also get stronger demographic demand from immigration. Or some of the increase in housing demand we saw during the pandemic—for bigger housing and in suburban locations—could persist much more than we have factored into our projection.（这里是说，如果房产还是需求强劲，他们会继续加息！） All this might lead to stronger underlying demand growth than in our current projection, despite higher interest rates.

These considerations should make it clear that we are not on a pre-set path of policy rate increases aimed at getting to a specific “terminal” rate. Our decisions are not on autopilot.

darwin

"Our base-case scenario includes a slowdown in housing activity. But we could see a larger-than-expected slowdown due to higher indebtedness and unsustainably high housing prices.（这段是他提及可能暂停加息的一个理由：房地产）。"

这段他也没提暂停加息的理由，这段说的是加息之后房地产的acvitity可能会受到larger than expected slowdown，因为大部分人负债率都太高了

现在央行眼里只有通胀一个指标，这时候说会因为房地产不加息，这个副行长还想不想当了