杀入TQQQ——人有多大胆，地有多大产

cougar

昨日QQQ下探周EMA2000均线，而且高于MA200的股票不到7%。一图解千愁，在这里猜底影响情绪。自2009金融危机QQQ起来后一直就没有破过这条均线，就算金融危机时也就在下面待了几个月。后续无论涨跌，这单利润小于20%就捂到发霉。

DumbestFury

我也杀进去了，均价23.1

DumbestFury

第一次碰到应该能弹起来，后面应该也得下去待几个月

tcm328pan

Lao Da, Great!!!

Luckycato

More than 90% of stocks in the S&P 500 declined today.

It's the 5th time in the past 7 days.

Since 1928, there have been exactly 0 precedents. This is the most overwhelming display of selling in history.。。

今天我也建仓tqqqq

td2020

Luckycato 发表于 2022-6-16 06:01 PM
More than 90% of stocks in the S&P 500 declined today.

It's the 5th time in the past 7 days.

好像前天盘中SP500个股全是红的， 收盘只有2个是绿的。

我今天29.5买了TNA， 反正买TQQQ涨的话 TNA会涨得更凶， 哈哈。

Luckycato

td2020 发表于 2022-6-16 09:13 PM
好像前天盘中SP500个股全是红的， 收盘只有2个是绿的。

我今天29.5买了TNA， 反正买TQ ...

有机会我也建仓tna。。。不过明天可能要高开

cougar

Luckycato 发表于 2022-6-16 08:01 PM
More than 90% of stocks in the S&P 500 declined today.

It's the 5th time in the past 7 days.

如果你注意到本周每天都有SPX的option OE, day by day.  再加上昨天周三早晨VIX future and month option OE, 明早开盘all Index future and option OE，and 关盘个股和ETF options OE, 本周实际上option的交易量巨大，空头可以天天对冲了结当日交易。大户吃大户这波明日应该结算，所以明天肯定放量，但对下周走势不一定有多大的影响。TQQQ只有在QQQ暴跌时买入才合算。不管后续牛市熊市这里买入亏钱的几率应该不会太大。good luck!

DumbestFury

avg down 均价22.5

cougar

td2020 发表于 2022-6-16 09:13 PM
好像前天盘中SP500个股全是红的， 收盘只有2个是绿的。

我今天29.5买了TNA， 反正买TQ ...

Good luck! 前两年有段时间小盘股可是一支独秀呀。几天前看到有机构建议杀入入小盘股，也在等待机会。另外好像看到你发过个贴子说为什么VIX现在还这么低？（或许是我搞错了）我的理解是SP500的option市场的 structure己经改变的太多，和以前不一样了。MM不再需要像过去那样买大量put 就可以保护仓位。不知你注意到没有，前几天VVIX两年来新低，这两天起来了。

Luckycato

cougar 发表于 2022-6-16 10:03 PM
如果你注意到本周每天都有SPX的option OE, day by day.  再加上昨天周三早晨VIX future and month option ...

我跑路了，然后做了几波sqqq，空仓了。机会合适再杀进去

cougar

cougar 发表于 2022-6-16 11:01 PM
Good luck! 前两年有段时间小盘股可是一支独秀呀。几天前看到有机构建议杀入入小盘股，也在等待机会。另 ...

VIX Future structure 曲线倒挂成这个样子说明市场是极度悲观了。曲线倒挂不会延续很长时间的。

Luckycato

btc跌了7%多，如果没有起色，感觉周二不太乐观，市场弱目前还是只敢按熊市反弹来做

CrisisInvesting

It is equivalent to short FED chairman Jerome Powell.
Haha.

加油

cougar

cougar 发表于 2022-6-16 10:03 PM
如果你注意到本周每天都有SPX的option OE, day by day.  再加上昨天周三早晨VIX future and month option ...

週五OE放量了。或许大戶們了結了这一波的恩怨情仇。量到底是够不够就以图为准啦，要说量还不够俺也哑口无言。

Maylin

cougar 发表于 2022-6-20 12:39 PM
週五OE放量了。或许大戶們了結了这一波的恩怨情仇。量到底是够不够就以图为准啦，要说量还不够俺也哑口无 ...

手工点赞！

cougar

cougar 发表于 2022-6-20 12:39 PM
週五OE放量了。或许大戶們了結了这一波的恩怨情仇。量到底是够不够就以图为准啦，要说量还不够俺也哑口无 ...

With expiration today, traders were mostly focused on squaring positions yesterday but some important flows still caught our attention. The Sep’22 3650 calls and puts were traded 21,000 times and were displayed only late on the day. That’s not a small size for any individual fund to trade, specifically, we are talking $7.7bln of notional and $845 million of premium value.

Looking at the prices, the puts traded at 189.67 and the calls at 213.17. If this was a straddle, it would have a combined value of $402.84.

This trader who would sell this straddle would only lose money if the SPX finished either above 4052.84 or below 3247.16.

假如后面还有一批期权大户跟庄，则跟的人越多这个价位范围的杀伤力就越大。但是好像大概率有一边的边界至少应该去摸一下。杀还是不杀？有点举棋不定犹豫不决呀！

noname6688

cougar 发表于 2022-6-21 08:36 PM
With expiration today, traders were mostly focused on squaring positions yesterday but some import ...

HOW ABOUT NOW ?

CLOSED ?

cougar

noname6688 发表于 2022-6-22 12:39 AM
HOW ABOUT NOW ?

CLOSED ?

No. They are still open. But don't take that too seriously. It is just an alert. From now to sept OE the guy can add so many combination strategies to this trade. It is just a warning sign  that a big guy is setting up a serious trade for next quarter

Luckycato

Cougar 就是cougar，牛