Could The Recession Be Over?

oldfairy

More than a year ago I called it: We are in a recession!
It was rather foolhardy to go out on a limb like that but with the help of hindsight we now know that that was quite a prescient call. What I didn’t expect was that we would be entering one of the most serious recessions we’ve seen in recent history.
Since the National Bureau of Economic Research has been keeping track of them, we’ve had 22 recessions (including this one). However, only 4 have been longer in duration:

Source: Chart of the Day

It may be just as foolhardy to now do an about turn and declare that the ‘Great Recession’ is over. But we are seeing some indications of that. The bad news is that the sharp contraction in inventories that we’ve seen has been unprecedented in recent economic history. The good news is that such drawdowns have historically signaled the end of recessions:

Souce: Doug Kass at theStreet.com

Poo

conclusion?

dividend_growth

PMI, Leading Index支持衰退结束；

Retail Sales, Auto Sales, Unemployment Rate不支持。

rightonmoney

北京哥哥

政府已经发话了，今年秋美国将走出经济危机。其实这只是个口号，宣布走出了又能怎样？经济数据还是互相冲突，ｕｎｅｍｐｌｏｙｍｅｎｔ还是不行，最关键的是，怎么让地球人恢复对美元的信心？

herb

The source of this recession is bank.  Bank is still bleeding and will lose much more blood later.  Just check all these tremendous amount of option ARMs that most will reset in 2010 and 2011.  Many option ARM holders only pay 1% to 2% interest right now.  In some cases, these people only pay less $100 per month for a quarter million dollar loan.

ybgx

trueself

PMI, Leading Index支持衰退结束；

Retail Sales, Auto Sales, Unemployment Rate不支持。
dividend_growth 发表于 2009-6-12 14:22

dividend_growth

5# 北京哥哥


美元涨得越凶，说明recession越严重！

ybgx

9# dividend_growth


Why so?

ppteam

愿早日看到美国经济扑街，越彻底越好

coexist

why?

brownian 发表于 2009-6-13 08:20

get a chart of dollar index and market index

rightonmoney

双刃剑同时启动。

acura

thanks