Afternoon coffee (no tea)

cookies

Okay, I have been humble to learn the different theories behind the " strongest bullish" rebound since 1930s, both from both FA and TA.  The most conveniced one was "inflation trade"

A trader told me, "the inflation talk is still alive, right? so just buy the dip and hold to see who is the last fool on the table". It made sense to me at the first glance. If US dollar is going to become the tollet paper, why not trade them with other less-tollet-paper assets, such as stocks.

Then I run into some research papers people done it a while back regarding to the inflation & the market. They seem to arrive with a different conclusion.  Like what Dr. Mark Skousen wrote at 2006 "Inflation’s Effect on the Stock Market: Why Good News is Bad News on Wall Street". Or even not inflation --> try "hyperinflation". : (Here is the list hyperinflation in human history). I went through the list to try to find out the corresponding stock market behavior at the same hyperinflation period. Unforunately, most of them even didn't have stock market during the hyperinflation period. Not a surprise, the normal business environment was completely destroied in such hyper-priced condition, and many of them went into martial law soon or after.  I guess that it doesn't matter how much cash a business holding or generating anymore, they are all going down the pipe.

The only partial example I can find is: Brazil, whose stock market started at 1992, where closed to the end of its hyperinflation period around 1994. . As you can see, the market only took off after hyperinflation ended and the normal business environment came back.

So I was confused, what my research just didn't match up what the other analysts or top traders' explanation.  Something else must going on behind these last minute daily spike in this rally.

Chicago was raining, raining  for weeks. In a sunny afternoon, I found a good reason to call a guy for a cup of coffee out of his office to enjoy the weather.  

I told him my frustration. He laughed,  "you miss a piece: PA".

"Political Analysis? that is BS"

"No, President Analysis" He grined, "this market only took off after his - buy stock now. You don't understand, he can't recover this mess,  and it will destroy his credit if people feel nothing changed.. haha, because he has to change something.. -yes we can- that is why they picked the easiest one: stock market, that is much easier to create more jobs or selling more houses. They bet that the soaring market will let people to forget the job they lost and the house in foreclosure..."

The Espresso was on me

watchdog

德州牛仔

天真的冷酷

金牛银熊

Brainteaser

Brainteaser

题外话,
这次俺错过了咖啡股, 下次一定要注意.
gmcr 太牛了.
论坛里有一次说到咖啡股的时候, gmcr 那个时候才刚刚启动,
想不到啊,想不到,咖啡.

swimminginstock

dividend_growth

Inflation还在加速时，股票不会好；

但inflation rate到顶后，公司的营业额会追上价格的变化，所以股票价格也会跟上来。

德国1922-1923年的hyper inflation中股票开始实际上损失了90%左右，inflation rate到顶后一年半把失地全部收回，但那些存银行的就死无葬身之地了。

巴西的股市也一样，inflation在加速时股票不行，到顶后股市就开始发飙了。

snowwolf229

rightonmoney