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[放炮] 学主席诗,抢MM钱 - Monday Morning Outlook (ZT)

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发表于 2009-6-29 12:30 AM | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式


本帖最后由 银河金星 于 2009-6-29 01:45 编辑

学习两句毛主席诗词先:

风云突变 军阀重开战 洒向人间都是怨 一枕黄梁再现
红旗跃过汀江 直下龙岩上杭 收拾金瓯一片 分田分地真忙

才饮长沙水 又食武昌鱼 万里长江横渡 极目楚天舒 不管风吹浪打 胜似闲庭信步 今日得宽馀 子在川上曰 逝者如斯夫

转贴于后,大家准备抢钱要紧:

                        Monday Morning Outlook: A Potentially More Bullish and Less Volatile July 4 Holiday Week                                                           Market returns during this holiday week could be more positive than usual
                                                      by Todd Salamone  6/27/2009 2:23 PM


Warnings from the World Bank, rising personal savings, andflatlining consumer spending underpinned yet another middling week forthe major U.S. indices. Furthermore, investors failed to respond evenafter the Federal Open Market Committee issued what was widelyconsidered one of its most upbeat statements on the U.S. economy inrecent memory. It seems that Fed watchers were more concerned with thecontinued weakness instead of the potential growth opportunities. Withthis as a backdrop, we enter a holiday-shortened week, with June'snon-farm payrolls report the center jewel. Speaking of the week ahead,Todd Salamone, Senior Vice President of Research, examines keytechnical support levels for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and theRussell 2000 Index (RUT), as well as a few key sentiment indicators.Todd also addresses the historically low volume of the July 4 holidayweek. Then, Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White takes a closer lookat analyst rankings, specifically "buy" rating percentages, and whetherthe market is poised for a round of upgrades from the brokerage bunch.We wrap up with a look at some key economic and earnings reports slatedfor release this week.

Recap of the Previous Week: World Bank Warning Pushes Wall Street Lower
By Joseph Hargett, Senior Equities Analyst


        A dismal outlook from the World Bank on Monday morning set the toneon Wall Street last week. The group said that it now expects the globalgross domestic product to contract by a record-setting 2.9% in 2009,compared to its earlier forecast for a decline of 1.7%. With littleelse to go on, traders sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) toa loss of 2.35% on the day, and the Dow never fully recovered. Boeing(BA) weighed heavily on the blue-chip barometer on Tuesday, after theaerospace giant announced that the maiden flight of its 787 Dreamlinerwould be delayed for the fifth time. Downbeat housing data also gaveinvestors pause; the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported a2.4% monthly rise in existing home sales during May, falling short ofanalysts' expectations. The Dow largely held its ground, however,slipping only 0.2% on the session.
Stocks initially ticked higher on Wednesday, with traderscelebrating news from the Commerce Department, which reported that U.S.durable goods orders rose 1.8% in May, besting economists'expectations. In addition, the Organization for Economic Cooperationand Development raised its economic forecasts for 2009 and 2010, uppingits predictions for the first time since 2007. However, trepidationover the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) decision on monetarypolicy sent the Dow to a loss of 0.28% by the close. Traders chose tofocus on the central bank's concern that economic activity could"remain weak for some time," instead of the FOMC's overall positiveoutlook for the U.S. economy.
The bulls showed signs of life on Thursday, as the Dow logged itsfirst triple-digit gain since June 1. The Commerce Department cheeredinvestors by upwardly revising its first-quarter gross domestic productreading. In addition, the Treasury auction of seven-year notes garneredstronger-than-expected attention, fueling bond yields higher. The Dowclosed up 2.08% as a result. Friday ended the week with a sigh, as theDow slipped 0.4% following a Commerce Department report revealing thatthe personal savings rate surged in May to 6.9%, its highest pointsince December 1993, while consumer spending rose only 0.3% during themonth. For the week, the DJIA fell 1.2%, while the S&P 500 Index(SPX) dropped 0.3%. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP), meanwhile, added 0.6%on a week-over-week basis.

What the Trader Is Expecting in the Coming Week: Low Volume and Volatility Could Favor the Bulls this Week
By Todd Salamone, Senior Vice President of Research


Last week was pretty much par for the course. Sure, we had somepre-July 4 fireworks last Monday and Tuesday, with the S&P 500Index (SPX) dropping 35 points, or 3.7%, by Tuesday morning. Thepullback pushed the index back below its 200-day moving average, albeitonly briefly. But, consistent with the behavior of the market duringthe past several weeks, there was little net directional movement, whenall was said and done. A V-shaped rally lifted the SPX off its Tuesdaymorning low, and this rally extended into Thursday, which resulted in a"whopping" 2.33-point SPX loss on the week.
    In last week's Monday Morning Outlook, I said:
"... we could be setting up for a trading range...For now, we see support for the SPX and RUT at 900 and 500,respectively. In both cases, the indices' 50-day and 200-day movingaverages are converging near these support levels. Resistance sits at930 and 950 for the SPX, and at 530 for the RUT."
   Although the SPX and Russell 2000 Index (RUT) wandered outside thelower boundary of our defined support levels, the pair closed the weekwithin these boundaries. Since the SPX's lows last week occurred in the890 area, and its 200-day moving average is now situated at 894.10, wenow see support in the 890-900 range and resistance in the 930-940zone. The economic calendar is full next week as we move into July. Aswe've mentioned in previous weeks, we think it will become harder forstocks to rally on disappointing economic reports, as the days ofexpecting the worst are long behind us.
With the passing of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting lastweek, which yielded nothing in terms of surprises, and theCongressional grilling of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on the Fed's rolein the Bank of America-Merrill Lynch merger, both the SPX and RUT findthemselves trading in the middle of their respective anticipatedtrading ranges as we head into this week's trading. The combination ofa holiday-shortened trading week, and an earnings season that is stilla few weeks away, could likely lead to more non-directional movement inthe days ahead.
   For those of you that are curious about historical price actionaround major holidays, we have a statistic for you. In recent history,the five trading days leading up to the Fourth of July holiday havetypically been more bullish and less volatile than the typical five-daySPX behavior since 2000.



  S&P 500 Index Five-Day Returns Since 2000         Leading to 4th of July        AnytimeOccurrences        9        2379Average        0.31%        -0.06%Median        0.24%        0.09%Percent Positive        56%        52%Average Positive        1.44%        1.83%Average Negative        -1.10%        -2.07%Standard Deviation        1.57%        2.78%Volume should be lighter than normal in the week ahead, if historyis any guide. The table below compares the Dow Jones IndustrialAverage's (DJIA) volume in the five days leading up to the July 4holiday to the anytime volume figures. Except for 2002 and 2005, therewas a plunge in volume during these days.



Dow Jones Industrial Average Daily Volume Year        5 Days Leading to July 4th        Anytime        July 4th Volume % of Anytime2000        121        350        35%2001        177        370        48%2002        436        430        101%2003        216        381        57%2004        256        388        66%2005        381        414        92%2006        210        463        45%2007        272        551        49%2008        468        822        57%Grand Total        282        466        61%(All volume is in the millions)The option activity and technical backdrop on many of the majorsector exchange-traded funds (ETF) that we follow point toward aheightened probability of more trading-range behavior in the broadermarket in the immediate days ahead. For example, the buy (to open)put/call volume ratio on the SPDR S&P Retail Fund (XRT) is back indecline mode, which may suggest that retail stocks are no longer underaccumulation among bigger market players. At the same time, there isplenty of put open interest in the July series just beneath currentlevels that would suggest these players are appropriately hedged(through July expiration), and are therefore not in any hurry to sell.
This analysis extends to financial- and technology-related stocks.Specifically, option activity and the open interest configurations onthe Select Sector Financial Trust (XLF) and the PowerShares QQQ Trust(QQQQ) reveal that the buy (to open) put/call volume ratio is decliningas the XLF, while the QQQQ is resting just above major put supportlevels.
  Meanwhile, the buy (to open) call/put ratio on the Select SectorSPDR Energy Trust (XLE) is rolling over from recent highs. Assuming thecall volume was related to hedging short positions, the shortingactivity that we discussed last week as a potential headwind for thisgroup may have climaxed for now. But, the XLE comes into this weeksandwiched between support from its 80-day and 160-day moving averagesnear 47, and below its 200-day moving average at 48.53.
  Turning to the technical backdrop, the XLF continues to trade belowits 200-day moving average at 12.01, while the XRT has traded in arange between 26 and 29 since April. There is a bright spot fortechnology bulls, as the QQQQ's technical backdrop is among the best ofthe four we have discussed. The tech ETF trades above all majorintermediate-term and longer-term moving averages on a daily chart. Therisk is this is a sector dominated by hedge funds -- which is apositive if they are in accumulation mode, but could be a huge negativeif they suddenly turn a cold shoulder to this group. Should technology,financials, energy, and retail stocks continue to trade in a range, thebroader SPX would be expected to behave similarly.
  The above being said, we are still monitoring the 20-day historicalvolatility of the SPX, which still has not fallen below the 20 area,from which it exploded higher in September. This is certainly a risk tothe lower volatility forecast.
If you are an option buyer, you might want to consider somepremium-selling strategies should this trading-range behavior continuefor the next few weeks, or even beyond. This is a nice hedge to anypremium-buying exposure that you might have. There are certain stocksin the technology area that we like, and we continue to think therisk-reward scenario for the bond market shapes up nicely for bondbulls.


Indicator of the Week: Analyst Rankings
By Rocky White, Senior Quantitative Analyst


   Foreword: Last year was awful for the stock market, as theS&P 500 Index (SPX) fell nearly 40%. However, the market hasstabilized some so far in this year, and the SPX has even turnedslightly positive on a year-to-date basis. With this in mind, I thoughtit would be a good time to see if analysts are starting to take note ofthe recent rally, and thus, start handing out more "buy"recommendations on stocks. Additionally, I will take a look and seewhich sectors have received analyst upgrades so far in 2009, and whichcontinue to be downgraded.
Total "Buy" Recommendations: In the table below, we aggregateall stocks in our database and total the number of analysts doling out"buy" recommendations. Dividing that figure by the total number ofrecommendations gives the percentage of "buy" rankings.
  Note that since 2007 the highest "buy" percentage was about 48%.Naturally, when the market tumbled, analysts began giving fewer andfewer "buy" recommendations. At the beginning of this year, the numberhad fallen to 44.2% and was continuing lower, eventually bottoming inmid-May at 41%. With the market up on the year, and the analyst "buy"percentage still below the Jan. 1 level, you might say the outlook isgood for potential upgrades.



                   Sectors: Next, we take a look at analyst rankings by sector.We do that by adding up all the "buy" recommendations on stocks withina sector and dividing that figure by the total analyst recommendationswithin that sector. Below is a table showing which sectors analystshave turned against the most since the beginning of the year. Thecommodities sector is the obvious theme of the table, occupying the topfive spots. Specifically, the "Steel Iron" sector has seen the biggestdecrease in the percentage of analysts' "buy" rankings. This isinteresting, since the Market Vectors Steel Index (SLX) has gained 40%so far in 2009. The coal sector, which arrives second on the tablebelow, has seen the percentage of analysts' "buys" drop from 65% tobelow 50%, despite the Market Vectors Coal Fund (KOL) gaining almost50% on a year-do-date basis.



                           As you would expect, I've included a table showing the sectors that have seen the biggest increasein "buy" percentages. You will notice that the increases in analyst"buy" recommendations are puny compared to the decreases listed above.Furthermore, there is evidence that analysts have downgraded stocks ata faster pace than they have upgraded them. While the commodities themewas obvious in the table above, the theme in the table below is notquite so cut and dried. We see "Retailing" at the top of the list.Looking down the table you also see "Autos and Parts," "Foods BevgsSoaps," and "Restaurants." This suggests that analysts might be lookingfor consumers to provide a pop for the market. Also, "Drugs" and"Biomedics Genetics" appear high on the list. This might suggest theyexpect some outperformance from the health care industry.     (此表与上表一样, 显然是给错了)





This Week's Key Events: June's Jobs Data on Tap
By Joseph Hargett, Senior Equities Analyst


Here is a brief list of some of the key events for the upcomingweek. All earnings dates listed below are tentative and subject tochange. Please check with each company's respective Web site forofficial reporting dates.
Monday

  • The economic calendar is devoid of reports on Monday. Onthe earnings front, Apollo Group Inc. (APOL) and H&R Block Inc.(HRB) are slated to release their quarterly reports.
Tuesday

  • June's consumer confidence report, the June Chicagopurchasing manager's index, and the April S&P Case-Shiller homeprice index are scheduled for release on Tuesday. Elsewhere, SchnitzerSteel Industries Inc. (SCHN) and Sealy Corp. (ZZ) are among thosereporting earnings.
Wednesday

  • On Wednesday, the Street will be graced with the JuneADP employment report, May's construction spending figures, theInstitute for Supply Management's manufacturing index for June, May'spending home sales, weekly crude inventories, and June's automobilesales. Meanwhile, Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ) and General MillsInc. (GIS) are scheduled to report earnings.
Thursday

  • June's nonfarm payrolls, June's unemployment rate,initial weekly jobless claims, and May's factory orders are slated forrelease on Thursday. The earnings calendar includes Acuity Brands Inc.(AYI).
Friday

  • There are no earnings or economic reports scheduled for Friday, as the market is closed due to the July 4 holiday.

And now a few sectors of note...
[size=+2]Dissecting The Sectors
Sector
[size=+1]Technology
Bullish

Outlook:  The technology sectorhas been hot in 2009, with the PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ) gainingmore than 22% since the beginning of the year. Technically speaking,the trust has drawn its 80-day and 200-day moving averages into abullish cross. Despite this outperformance, investors continue tooverlook and to bet against the shares. Specifically, a recent surveyof 127 institutional investors by TheMarkets.com revealed that"Surveyed investors expect that key sectors of focus over the next 12months will be energy, financials, healthcare and basic materials." Wefind it extremely odd that technology was not listed among those keysectors, especially given the QQQQ's strong technical performance in2009. In the options pits, heavy put open interest resides at the July35 and 36 strikes, and could provide options-related support for thetrust. One concern would be that the QQQQ's 50-day buy-to-open put/callratio is beginning to roll over, and might mean that hedged players areno longer in accumulation mode. At the same time, the trust is tradingright above major put support at the 35 strike, which would suggestthose long technology stocks and long the 35-strike puts have minimaldownside exposure. Within the tech sector, our favorites include PalmInc. (PALM), Synaptics Inc. (SYNA), Juniper Networks Inc. (JNPR), andpriceline.com Inc. (PCLN).

Sector
[size=+1]Energy
Bearish

Outlook:  After enjoying a strong rally from itsMarch lows through early June, the energy sector has begun to waver abit. The Select Sector SPDR Energy Fund (XLE) has declined about 17%from its June 11 peak. Furthermore, the fund breached former support atits 50-day and 200-day moving averages, slipping beneath the upper railof its September 2008-through-May 2009 trading range in the process.Furthermore, XLE's 50-day buy-to-open call/put volume ratio has turnedsharply higher, giving us the impression that hedge funds may beshorting the energy sector following the September-June rally. Anotherpotential concern is that sentiment toward the U.S. dollar has reachedextreme levels, placing the greenback in position for a potentialreversal, which would be negative for dollar-denominated commodities.
Sector
[size=+1]Treasurys
Bullish

Outlook:  Treasurys are gettingquite the bad rap lately. There has been talk in the financial media ofa bursting bubble, a sentiment that was recently highlighted by abearish Barron's cover story. Furthermore, a recent survey ofinvestment managers indicated that optimism in regard to governmentdebt is at its lowest level in quite some time. However, the iSharesBarclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) is currently in the processof consolidating into support near its 80-month moving average and theround-number 90 level. Meanwhile, last week's $104 billion in newissuance kicked off with strong demand for $40 billion in two-yearnotes, with overall demand at its highest in more than two years.Additionally, indirect bidders, a proxy for foreign buyers, arrived atan unheard-of 68%. Another positive is that Moody's Investors Servicestated that the U.S. government's credit rating of "Aaa" is safe.Finally, the U.S. Dollar Index is holding support in the 80 region,which could be bullish for Treasurys. Should these support levels hold,we could see an unwinding of pessimism on both fronts, potentiallysending bonds steadily higher.
发表于 2009-6-29 12:46 AM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-6-29 07:38 AM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-6-29 07:49 AM | 显示全部楼层
谢谢贴文章。

但是连表都给错的文章,不如不看。
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发表于 2009-6-29 08:12 AM | 显示全部楼层
ding
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发表于 2009-6-29 09:05 AM | 显示全部楼层
thx.
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发表于 2009-6-29 09:11 AM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-6-29 09:35 AM | 显示全部楼层
挺好的。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-6-29 11:08 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 银河金星 于 2009-6-30 00:10 编辑
谢谢贴文章。

但是连表都给错的文章,不如不看。
soulvirus 发表于 2009-6-29 08:49


呵呵, 谁都有出错的时候.
应看大处, 主流吧. 此也算一不错的蛮职业的有关stocks and options (mainly options)的网站(机构). 里面的
一些东西还是有价值的. 俺转此贴, 因为这样的较全面(FA, TA, SA etc.)的有一定特色的(而胡同绝大多数原创贴
欠缺的)free market report/review还是值得一读的. 所谓去伪存真, 兼收并蓄. 当然, 看与不看, 如何取舍, 因人而异 ...

OK, it's corrected in the original place:


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