7月看跌

swordevil

1)Q2 earnings for financials will be ugly: a)the strong Q1 earnings are
mostly attributed to mark-to-market accounting rule change, which
induced a ONE TIME major gain. b) the earnings also benefited from wider
CDS spread on the banks, allowing them to mark down their own debt. But
spreads have tightened significantly in Q2 thus they now need to MARK UP
the debt. c) loss provision from loan portfolio will go up sharply...

2)Q2 GDP will be disappointing. Although banks are claiming profits,
consumer credit is as tight as ever. This plus the weakness in labor
market will suppress any recovery in consumption, which accounts for 72%
of the GDP.

3)One major factor fueled the rally was the government's PPIP program.
Today the government announced that the program will be reduced to $20
Billion vs $100 Billion originally announced. The department of treasury
will provided $1.1 billion capital for the 8-10 asset managers. The
number is a drop in a bucket, given the mortgage-backed security market
alone is $1.8 trillion. Without the assumed leverage from the
government, re-pricing is coming soon.

4) USD and long term treasury yield will continue to be pressured. US
government is issuing record debt but there is not sufficient demand for
them, given that US trade deficit shrank significantly. The FED does not
have the capability to do a QE2 without monetizing more debt

dara

do not agree with any of yours.

Banks(including GS/MS) earning will be strong this qtr for sure, but maybe the guide will be so so for next qtr.

hithere

do not agree with any of yours.

Banks(including GS/MS) earning will be strong this qtr for sure, but maybe the guide will be so so for next qtr.
dara 发表于 2009-7-2 20:17

If u disagree, you should write your opinions against each of his, not just clobbering it aimlessly. If u think banks earning will be strong, write up your reasons, not just bluffing it. Remember to respect other people's work.

hithere

1# swordevil

Good work, thanks for sharing your insight.

ByStander

1)Q2 earnings for financials will be ugly: a)the strong Q1 earnings are
mostly attributed to mark-to-market accounting rule change, which
induced a ONE TIME major gain. b) the earnings also benefi ...
swordevil 发表于 2009-7-2 20:07

I don't understand why mark-to-market rule change induces only "ONE TIME major gain". My understanding is that earings = revenue - (bottom line) - (write downs). M to M rule change helps reduce the write downs. As long as the changes are in place, the write downs will be reduced.

dara

If u disagree, you should write your opinions against each of his, not just clobbering it aimlessly. If u think banks earning will be strong, write up your reasons, not just bluffing it. Remember  ...
hithere 发表于 2009-7-2 20:52

I guess that is why they ban you in DQ.

Why I have to agree with whatever you(or someone else) said.  Why I have to write my own reason when someone said" loss provision from loan portfolio will go up sharply "? Where did I bluff?

Just like you, asking people buy SRS every day, and it dropped 7 days in a row, then it went up one day, and you talked like a 股神.

Hohoho.

I can tell you yours and the first post are typical "仓位决定 脑袋".

Jojo

Zan analysis.  Earning expection is one thing. Reaction of stock is another.

swordevil

You don't have to read or agree with my analysis but please be respectful. And talking about "仓位决定脑袋", you are the one who does not allow opinions inconsistent with your portfolio position here.

I guess that is why they ban you in DQ.

Why I have to agree with whatever you(or someone else) said.  Why I have to write my own reason when someone said" loss provision from loan portfolio w ...
dara 发表于 2009-7-3 12:33

yuelm2008

Zan analysis.  Earning expection is one thing. Reaction of stock is another.
Jojo 发表于 2009-7-3 15:53

agree

buctusa

Support...............

I guess that is why they ban you in DQ.

Why I have to agree with whatever you(or someone else) said.  Why I have to write my own reason when someone said" loss provision from loan portfolio w ...
dara 发表于 2009-7-3 12:33

happy_trader

鸟语

ychen222

从月线图来看，是要跌了。

palm

thanks.