Short The 3rd Straight Up Day At A 10-Day High

多吉

This analysis caught my attention, it's quite intriguing, isn't it?
tTy to draw a 5 month SPX chart to see the current situation...

It's so amazing to play numbers and probabilities with money...





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Monday, April 28, 2008
Ten High Straight Up


I’ve previously discussed some of the findings in Larry Connors’ book “How Markets Really Work”. In the book Larry looks at certain market situations and determines whether the market has historically outperformed or underperformed when those situations arose. One I previously discussed was a 3-day rise in the market when it is trading under its 200-day moving average. Historically, the market has struggled to add further gains after this has occurred.

Another edge Larry discusses in his book is performance following a 10-day high. In the book he shows there has been a negative expectancy over the next 1-5 days following a 10-day high. I have personally examined 10-day closing highs and found a negative expectancy 3-5 days out when the market is under its 200-day moving average. When it is over the 200-day the expectancy is no longer negative.

On Friday the S&P 500 closed higher for the third day in a row. It also made a 10-day high and closed at a 10-day closing high. I ran some tests to see what happened when you combined some of these 10-high criteria with 3-straight up days. Results of the different combinations I looked at were similar. Below is one example:





A negative expectancy persisted up through 12-days out. The greatest part of it appeared in the 1st three days. Of course during the next three days there is going to be a Fed announcement. The reaction to that may have a larger affect on market movement than my little test. Still, it’s worthwhile noting the negative expectancy in these situations. Below is a chart showing all the recent instances with a 3-day exit strategy.

多吉

If you pull out a 2yr wkly chart for AAPL
you'll see the AH closing price 158.4
is right on the declining top line

with its Q4 outlook being missed,
will a "sell into the strength" be triggered?

I say, 75p...

BTW, GS hits my midterm target 160.
http://www.hutong9.com/viewthread.php?tid=51916

lazbug

dingdingding,  some time there  is a free "How Markets Really Work" book  download from Connors website ---- www.TradingMarkets.com , often just two night open for free download,

mary666

ding

RedBean

Thanks..

lostlamb98

那反着用是不是也成？
If market hits 10-day low and above 200ma, long the ETF.

风清扬

seabiscuit

Thanks for sharing, Duoji.  

动感

太困了, 先顶! 明早醒了再研读.

Anita

interesting, thanks!

lake3peat

Ding!

buctusa

We can not find it at the website............. Can you share the book with us?

dingdingding,  some time there  is a free "How Markets Really Work" book  download from Connors website ---- www.TradingMarkets.com , often just two night open for free download,
lazbug 发表于 2009-7-21 22:02

lazbug

12# buctusa

forgot  save  in which hard drive,

lazbug

13# lazbug

ok,   book link
http://images.tradingmarkets.com/HMRW/HMRW.pdf

刁得一

2# 多吉
好。明天short。

palm

jackyking

Thanks DJ!

slcgh

90ufo

2# 多吉
好。明天short。
刁得一 发表于 2009-7-22 00:24

读明白了再行动,条件是200天MA以下,图是2008年的.

yaobooyao

2# 多吉

DJ 兄， Yeah I remember that GS @ 160 is one of those criteria.
Pull the trigger.