美元反弹，大盘走向何方？

LLN

美元反弹，大盘走向何方？

xuetu

Good analysis. It is just against most people's thought on USD. since the inflation part.

Most people will say hyperinflation is coming, so USD is so doomed.

But on the other side, if consumer is not coming back. I dont see any pressure on inflation. if the supply was destructed to certain degree, wouldn't it be stagflation coming along? so far from inventory and factory activity data, the supply is still there...
so no demand, decent supply if not still excess....i still see deflation!

yaobooyao

试想这个情形－ 如果美金稳定在目前的低位，对大盘就仍然是持续动力。

Diffusion

no offend，商榷一下。觉得除了UUP的反转形态以外，其余的分析都有wishful thinking的成分。

关于沿阻力爬行，1000点的时候也是如此，最高爬到1018才掉头。这次能爬多高，还是不好说。另外，转势前如果下跌，应该首先考虑buy dip而不是杀跌。

关于周五未能创新高，可是也未能创新低。个人认为周五的走法是比较典型的no decision。所以最好还是等等看周一。

Diver

1# LLN

nomisy

直接向下到颈线的走法似乎派发不充分, 现在即使回调也不会很陡....

jackyking

thanks for the good analysis. However, the good volume on UUP last Friday was probably because it was an OE day, whether USD has hit a bottom and ready to spike up has yet to be confirmed. Should Monday confirms the bullish reversal, could we say the v of wave 5 of  USD was completed last week.

One thing we ought to pay attention to is SSEC, if SSEC continues to slide on Monday, it for sure would bring some pressure to the US markets. Considering China's economy is in a much better shape than that of the U.S. and yet SSEC has not be able to make higher high after it peaked in early August, it's hard to believe that the fundamentals can support a sustained growth of the U.S. cash market without a weakened USD.

LLN

4# Diffusion
SPX以阴线收在1052.8以下才是可做空的信号。

LLN

7# jackyking

Diffusion

  4# Diffusion
SPX以阴线收在1052.8以下才是可做空的信号。
LLN 发表于 2009-9-19 21:47

daxiong

Ding!

jackyking

USD crashed again overnight. New high of SPX coming?

ranchgirl

USD crashed again overnight. New high of SPX coming?
jackyking 发表于 2009-9-22 06:00

I guess so