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发表于 2009-10-9 07:13 PM
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In any short-time window, you can get high reward ratio by doing crazy things.
But over a very long time, probability will kick in and Livermore was wiped out.
Yes, it is possible, in one crazy day, you throw a coin 10 times and it returns all heads, no tail.
But over your lifespan, you throw coins and you get half-half heads and tails.
I think my annual return is about 14%, which is what those top funds can get.
Why shouldn't I give my money to those top funds and spare myself from the boring job? Because the names of those top funds change every year. If you give your money to fund A which is the top fund this year, then you get nothing from A the next year, hehe. |
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