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发表于 2009-11-16 06:03 PM
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12# Diffusion
The key is the connection between the actual price history and the price model.
For instance, one can find the distribution of the (log of) daily price change rate
from the actual price history, and use it for the price model. Of course, this might be too simple,
and one loses too much of the characteristics of the price history. But if one uses too much
of the price history, his simulation would be not very far from the price history.
Another serious issue is that quite often even the designer of
a sophisticated strategy would not know why his strategy
is making money. In the simulation, a non-random structure can be perceived as random and not be
implemented as special in the price model. |
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