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[基础分析] 2nd round of job cutting just started...

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-11-6 06:55 AM | 显示全部楼层


we may see unemployment rate drop today.........
zhishun 发表于 2009-11-6 06:08


If it drops, would you dare to short?

I do...
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-11-9 07:20 PM | 显示全部楼层
update:

EA 1500
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-11-10 06:03 AM | 显示全部楼层
Update:

Lloyds Banking  5000
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发表于 2009-11-10 07:37 PM | 显示全部楼层
Adobe 680
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发表于 2009-11-10 11:12 PM | 显示全部楼层
24# 牛二买刀

damn, those jobs must have gone to India. Adobe is expanding in India
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发表于 2009-11-10 11:41 PM | 显示全部楼层
Adobe 680
牛二买刀 发表于 2009-11-10 19:37



Do not understand this:

ADBE stock price is not far close to its all time high, and it is actually earning a lot money.

But they still CUT.
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-11-11 04:31 PM | 显示全部楼层
update:

Applied Materials  1500
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发表于 2009-11-11 04:53 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 Diffusion 于 2009-11-11 16:55 编辑

Interesting reading as quoted below. Maybe later on some economists will produce "new theory" saying something like "economy can recover with high unemployment" or "high unemployment fuels economy recovery".


http://money.cnn.com/2009/11/11/news/international/global_american_wages.breakingviews/index.htm

Americans are overpaid

For the global economy to rebalance, the pay gap between Americans and the rest of the world must shrink.
By Martin Hutchinson and Edward Hadas, breakingviews.com
November 11, 2009: 3:17 PM ET

(breakingviews.com) -- U.S. workers are overpaid, relative to equally productive foreigners doing the same work. If the global economy is ever to get back into balance, that gap needs to be closed.


...
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发表于 2009-11-11 04:55 PM | 显示全部楼层
Interesting reading as quoted below. Maybe later on some economists will produce "new theory" saying something like "economy can recover with high unemployment" or "high unemployment fuels economy rec ...
Diffusion 发表于 2009-11-11 16:53



That is one of the reason I do not see we can see quick recovery.
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发表于 2009-11-11 05:01 PM | 显示全部楼层
That is one of the reason I do not see we can see quick recovery.
dara 发表于 2009-11-11 16:55


It's certainly not going to be a quick recovery to the old economy model. But never underestimate the creativity of those theorists. Just like the "new economy" someone were advocating in the Tech Bubble, they may coin a new economy model such as "jobless recovery". Time will eventually prove it's wrong, but it may take a long time to do that.
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发表于 2009-11-11 05:04 PM | 显示全部楼层
"人类到目前为止做的最错的一件事就是把利率将到了0%"
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发表于 2009-11-11 05:07 PM | 显示全部楼层
We are already in the high unemployment bull market.
The logic is so simple:

high unemployment = low labor cost = high profit margin = good earning = good stock price = rosy economy

Yes, we win.
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发表于 2009-11-11 05:07 PM | 显示全部楼层
Sprint 1500
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发表于 2009-11-11 05:09 PM | 显示全部楼层
Will unemployment rate go to 11% by the spring of 2010?
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发表于 2009-11-11 05:15 PM | 显示全部楼层
Interesting reading as quoted below. Maybe later on some economists will produce "new theory" saying something like "economy can recover with high unemployment" or "high unemployment fuels economy rec ...
Diffusion 发表于 2009-11-11 16:53


"(breakingviews.com) -- U.S. workers are overpaid, relative to equally productive foreigners doing the same work. If the global economy is ever to get back into balance, that gap needs to be closed."
如果这样,判断房市就比较容易了。
等到纽约和上海的房价一致的时候,房价就基本平衡了。现在好像还有点距离,虽然距离越来越小。
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发表于 2009-11-11 05:29 PM | 显示全部楼层
It's certainly not going to be a quick recovery to the old economy model. But never underestimate the creativity of those theorists. Just like the "new economy" someone were advocating in the Tech ...
Diffusion 发表于 2009-11-11 17:01


Wait, tech itself is not a bubble., Not at all, the bubble is the 2000 market.

If you look how internet/personal computer are used since 1995, that fundamentally changed the world!!!

I do not see any new like that that. If we do, then we could see another true bull market
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发表于 2009-11-11 05:33 PM | 显示全部楼层
Will unemployment rate go to 11% by the spring of 2010?
xiaoshitou 发表于 2009-11-11 17:09


那是一定的。只是不知道统计局会不会潜规则那些数字了。
年底是裁人的高峰期,因为比不过节的时候裁人省的钱多。
不过,不少上班的也不好。我的几个朋友,工资都被砍了30%了。跟我诉苦,我说:要不您回家,我来干?
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发表于 2009-11-11 05:37 PM | 显示全部楼层
"(breakingviews.com) -- U.S. workers are overpaid, relative to equally productive foreigners doing the same work. If the global economy is ever to get back into balance, that gap needs to be close ...
牛二买刀 发表于 2009-11-11 17:15


nice argument.
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发表于 2009-11-11 05:39 PM | 显示全部楼层
Wait, tech itself is not a bubble., Not at all, the bubble is the 2000 market.

If you look how internet/personal computer are used since 1995, that fundamentally changed the world!!!

I do no ...
dara 发表于 2009-11-11 17:29


If you know to separate the stock market and the real economy for the tech bubble, what stops you from doing the same this time around?
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发表于 2009-11-11 05:46 PM | 显示全部楼层
If you know to separate the stock market and the real economy for the tech bubble, what stops you from doing the same this time around?
Diffusion 发表于 2009-11-11 17:39


Did I say the market would drop right way?

I went through 2000 market, I know how market works.

IN 2000, even the 最蠢 guy in the world knows it was a bubble, but it just went higher and higher every day.

But in the end, it will drop, nothing can stop it.
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