The truth about December trading

knight2017

I use the data from Yahoo to take a look what is the December trading is like as i have noticed for the past couple of days, December is rather a stable month. so here it is.





So this is data used for the last 59 years. Please note the left most is the year 2008 and right most is for the year 1950.
as you can see December starting from the first days is a very strong positively Biased month where only 6 years produced a negative month over the past 59 years(89% up month). and the other graphs are last 10,11, and 12 trading days of the month. they are pretty  positive I would say. and despite the number of down cases, the magnitude to the negative side is  extremely limited. worst case for the month is - 0.06%. I think this explains a lot now. and this is how I would play this.

If we do get a pullback (which i think is long over due), and the correction size is ordinary like before around 3%-5%. I would probably buy dip and hold till the last day of the month.

If we rally off to 1120 thats like 1% from here, probably take the profit or avoid chasing high as to avoid mean regression movements of the markets.

Cheers

Calculation used: (close price of DEC 30th or 31st -close price of Dec 1st or 2nd )/close price of Dec 1st or 2nd     for every year from 1950 to 2008

redwendy

谢谢！

busywind

thanks

silverado

ding

ranchgirl

Great post!!!!

Wolf

trueself

thanks!

coexist

hold cash and wait

bigbadwolf

11月过去了， 指数掩盖了一些弱势。

ranchgirl

up!!!!!!!

ranchgirl

Thanks knight2017!