INTERMEDIATE-TERM: RISE TO 03/08 THEN PULLBACK TO 03/16?
See 03/05 Market Recap as multiple Gann days are due around 03/08 and 03/16 and the market is pretty overbought so the logic guess is it could pullback from around 03/08 to around 03/16. Now it seems that the guess was wrong, I'll give it one more day, will reevaluate tomorrow night.
Overall according to the past II pattern, I believe eventually we’ll see a bigger correction. Just for now except for the Gann theory arguing that 03/08 could be a major top, I have no other evidences supporting an imminent big correction.
SHORT-TERM: MORE TOPPING SIGNS
还是看pullback,今天又多了个topping sign。0.0.9 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch,上面的CPCE MA(5)太低了。
其他没啥了,今天的After Bell Quick Summary根据CPC <= 0.81说明天要涨,不过盘后这个数值修正为0.82,所以明天就no idea了。Block sell虽然也调整了,不过还是比重很大,因此还是distribution的样子,不好。
2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily),连着3个反转棒,看起来还要反弹。有人问VIX and SPX both up 3 days in a row是个啥情况,我查了一下,除了今天外,另外三个日子是08/27/2003, 06/05/2003, 06/04/2003,此后大盘继续涨。
今天比较特别的地方是SPY up 9 days in a row,自2002年以来的就出现过2次(下图红棒棒),样本太少,可能不说明啥问题。
1.0.9 SPX Cycle Watch (60 min),这个cycle继续有效,看明天了。
STOCK SCREENER: For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.
Since the intermediate-term direction is not clear, so no stock screeners from now on until the dust settles.
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