03/11/2010 大盘回顾 （The next important date is 03/12）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 4 of 8 are NEUTRAL

BULLISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): Could be Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 119.42. BEARISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): 15 unfilled gaps. (max was 15) 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): 9 unfilled gaps. (max was 9) 2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume: Topped? 2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: NYHGH too high. 03/08 Market Recap: Institutional Distribution is too low. 0.0.1 Market Top/Bottom Watch: NYDNV too low. 0.0.6 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals: NAADV MA(10) too high. 0.0.9 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Topped? 0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: *CPCE MA(10) too low. CONCLUSION Could short after seeing a daily reversal bar (Open > Close), for aggressive traders only.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 02/26 L breakeven Reversal Bar 02/26 L 03/09 low NYMO Sell       VIX MA ENV

OTHER ETFs COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ NAADV MA(10) too high. IWM ChiOsc too high. CHINA Big red bar usually means more pullback ahead. EMERGING CANADA FINANCIALS REITS MATERIALS ENERGY Broadening Top in the forming, the breakout direction is unknown. OIL GOLD DOLLAR Head and Shoulders Bottom. BOND 2 reversal bars in a row, could rebound.

Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented. Make your own decision on which signals are to be used.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: THE NEXT IMPORTANT DATE IS 03/12

 

见03/05 Market Recap，最初我认为大盘会从03/09 pullback到03/16，现在看起来是要涨到03/16的样子，因为next Monday，不仅是Bullish Monday，而且统计上，according to Stock Trader’s Almanac 2010, Monday before March Triple Witching, Dow Up 16 of Last 22。不过熊熊还有个希望，就是明天正好有3个Gann Day相交，因此也有可能是turning day。明天如果反转向下的话，pullback可能会持续到03/16。

 

 

SHORT-TERM: MORE TOPPING SIGNS

 

统计上，这样的天天涨意味着a little bit longer than short-term还要涨。不过，见上面的table，short-term累积的top signals实在太多了，因此还是看pullback。今天又多了个topping sign，0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals，下面的CPCE太低了。

 

 

最新的AAII Survey看一下，熊太少，牛则迅速增加，这个趋势不好，我会持续关注，随时向大家报告最新情况。

 

 

2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily)，open high close in red，今天是弄了个bearish reversal bar，因此跌的可能很大，这个对牛牛是好消息。

 

 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

 

Since the intermediate-term direction is not clear, so no stock screeners from now on until the dust settles.

 

soulvirus

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先谢再看！

windy

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