03/12/2010 大盘回顾 （Will the 3rd time be the charm?）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 3 of 6 are OVERBOUGHT SPY ST Model is in BUY mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL

ATTENTION 2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Negative divergence. 03/11 Market Recap: AAII too few bears. Bulls are rising rapidly. 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): *Non confirmation between SOX and COMPQ. 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: *Non confirmation among TRAN, INDU, SPX and CRB. BULLISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 119.42. BEARISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): 15 unfilled gaps. (max was 15) 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): 9 unfilled gaps. (max was 9) 2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume: Topped? 2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: NYHGH too high. 03/08 Market Recap: Institutional Distribution is too low. 0.0.1 Market Top/Bottom Watch: NYDNV too low. 0.0.6 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals: NAADV MA(10) too high. 0.0.9 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Topped? 0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE MA(10) too low. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: *NYHILO too high. CONCLUSION Could short after seeing a daily reversal bar (Open > Close), for aggressive traders only. *Reversal bar triggered on 03/12, good luck bears!

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 02/26 L *03/01 low *Adjust stop loss. Reversal Bar 02/26 L *03/11 low *Adjust stop loss. NYMO Sell       VIX MA ENV

OTHER ETFs COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ NAADV MA(10) too high. IWM *Bearish reversal bar. CHINA Big red bar usually means more pullback ahead. EMERGING *Bearish reversal bar. CANADA *Black bar at new high doesn’t look good. 1.5.2 TSE McClellan Oscillator: *A little bit negative divergence, be careful. FINANCIALS *Bearish reversal bar. REITS MATERIALS ENERGY Broadening Top in the forming, the breakout direction is unknown. *2 reversal bars, could pullback. OIL GOLD DOLLAR Head and Shoulders Bottom. *ChiOsc too low. BOND 2 reversal bars in a row, could rebound.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
*Skip the SEASONALITY and CYCLE ANALYSIS sessions below if you think they’re superstitious.

 

SEASONALITY: THE NEXT WEEK ARE GENERALLY BULLISH

 

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac: Monday before March Triple Witching, Dow Up 16 of Last 22. March Triple Witching Day however is 50-50.

 

According to Sentimentrader: The first 3 days of the next week are bullish.

 

 

According to Bespoke: SPX March Expiration weeks are generally bullish.

 

 

CYCLE ANALYSIS: MOON, CYCLES AND GANN DAYS ALL MEET NEXT WEEK, LOOKS LIKE A CYCLE TOP

 

上周的Gann Day以及Cycles都很不成功，不过not over yet，reason：

1. Cycle一般都会有几天的误差，03/11 Market Recap说03/12是可能的转折点，至少现在还不能说错，因为SPY周五Open > Close，有反转的可能。
2. 下周还是Gann Day密集，还有月亮，还有FOMC，还有Triple Witching，都是潜在的turning point，所以不能排除下周大盘反转向下的可能。

1.0.7 SPX Cycle Watch (Daily)，这是经历上周失败，痛定思痛，痛改前非，化悲痛为力量后，改进的cycle。主要改变是只对6.5%以上的turning point找cycle规律，这样去除了很多whipsaw，相信预测精度会有提高。下图是去除所有与现在无关的cycle后的图，可以看到本周和下周，都有cycle due，看起来象是top。

 

 

下面的图顺便看一下，可能有人只相信Calendar Day计算得出的cycle，其结果和1.0.7 SPX Cycle Watch (Daily)得出的一样，可能还更好点。注意到一个有趣的现象，从02/05的反弹，经历了两波，每波so far都是17 calendar day，涨幅都是67.28，符合Elliott Wave A = C的说法。  

 

 

1.0.8 SPX Cycle Watch (Moon Phases)，周一是New Moon，不象前两次那样ambiguity，top和bottom都有可能，这次看着是top的可能比较大，除非周一大大低开。

 

 

下周16，17，18号都是Gann Day，因此都有反转的可能。

 

 

以上总结一下，就是从Cycle的角度看，下周应该是top。如果1.0.7 SPX Cycle Watch (Daily)的cycle这次被证明是正确的话，那回调的幅度将至少是6.5%左右。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT CORRECTION TO CONFORM THE PAST II PATTERN NOT SURE WHEN IT WILL START

 

关于中期的判断，一直是根据过去的II pattern (see red lines)，看correction的人太多，所以会大反弹，甚至新高，然后才是真正的correction。So far，大反弹and new high的pattern都符合了，现在就看是否像过去一样correction了。Overall，我相信这个correction会有，但是目前还没有证据说什么时候开始。

 

 

下面是另外两个看correction的理由。

 

从SPX longer history chart看，目前的点位是历史上反复争夺的地方，应该不是那么容易就此冲过的，特别是上面的NYHILO (10 day MA of Record High Percent Index)，过去这么高一共只有3次，每次此后的回调幅度都不小。顺便说，图中的红圈圈基本反映我对中期的猜测。

 

 

Options Speculation Index，实在太疯狂了(means too much call buying and put selling)，上次这么疯狂是一月份大回调之前，这次比一月份还要疯狂。 

 

 

下面两个图提醒一下，有点non confirmation，当然时间可能改变一切，所以他们并不是看跌的理由，而是说今后我们要密切关注。上面的table，为此增加了ATTENTION一栏，都是要密切关注的东东。

 

1.2.0 INDU Leads Market, non confirmation among INDU, TRAN, SPX and CRB.

 

 

1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily), non confirmation between COMPQ and SOX.

 

 

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE A PULLBACK SOON

 

短期还是看pullback，理由见上面的table，实在太多了。

 

0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals，第3次形成black bar (Open > Close)了，前两次都没反应，那，是不是第3次会不一样呢？

 

 

QQQQ形成Black Bar后过去的表现，下面的图看一下。

 

 

1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min), too much negative divergence.

 

 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

 

Since the intermediate-term direction is not clear, so no stock screeners from now on until the dust settles.

 

skipjack

thanks

lwjnbtx

板凳

quickcow

dividend_growth

老蛇辛苦了！

今天第三名！

busywind

xiexie as always

javamood

dayuangone8

first page?

farshine

Bencat

xiaoxiaozhang

ut1984

sfbayarea

忘记了这个：
下周一，统计牛。
下周二，有Fed。
下周三，既然周一，周二都牛，没有周三reversal说的，一般都是周二周四，所以周三也牛。
下周四，我不知道，刚看到说SPY ex dividend牛，好吧，那也牛。
下周五，统计牛。

以上，就是说，下周要天天涨啊。

sooners

回复 1# Cobra


   

impresario100

xiaoyaoxl

我顶

hutong9

cartier

stonehorse

Thanks

Cobra

忘记了这个：
下周一，统计牛。
下周二，有Fed。
下周三，既然周一，周二都牛，没有周三re ...
sfbayarea 发表于 2010-3-14 00:46