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[技术分析] 03/15/2010 大盘回顾 (SPX Pullback in 3 Days for 40 Plus Points?)

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发表于 2010-3-15 08:39 PM | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式


  TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart)
Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY    
Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 3 of 6 are OVERBOUGHT SPY ST Model is in BUY mode
Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL  
ATTENTION 2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Negative divergence.
03/11 Market Recap: AAII too few bears. Bulls are rising rapidly.
1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): Non confirmation between SOX and COMPQ.
1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: Non confirmation among TRAN, INDU, SPX and CRB.
BULLISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 119.42.
BEARISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): 15 unfilled gaps. (max was 15)
1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): 9 unfilled gaps. (max was 9)
2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume: Topped?
2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: NYHGH too high.
03/08 Market Recap: Institutional Distribution is too low.
0.0.1 Market Top/Bottom Watch: NYDNV too low.
0.0.6 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals: NAADV MA(10) too high.
0.0.9 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Topped?
0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE MA(10) too low.
4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: NYHILO too high.
CONCLUSION Could short after seeing a daily reversal bar (Open > Close), for aggressive traders only.
Reversal bar triggered on 03/12, good luck bears!
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING VEHICLE:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
ST Model 02/26 L *03/02 low *Adjust stop loss.
Reversal Bar 02/26 L 03/11 low
NYMO Sell      
VIX MA ENV    
OTHER ETFs COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ NAADV MA(10) too high.
IWM Bearish reversal bar.
CHINA Big red bar usually means more pullback ahead.
EMERGING Bearish reversal bar.
CANADA Black bar at new high doesn’t look good.
1.5.2 TSE McClellan Oscillator: A little bit negative divergence, be careful.
FINANCIALS Bearish reversal bar.
REITS
MATERIALS
OIL & ENERGY Broadening Top in the forming on XLE, the breakout direction is unknown. 2 reversal bars, could pullback.
GOLD & GDX
BIOTECH Black bar at new high doesn’t look good.
DOLLAR Head and Shoulders Bottom. *ChiOsc too low.
BOND 2 reversal bars in a row, could rebound.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
*Skip the SEASONALITY and CYCLE ANALYSIS sessions below if you think they’re superstitious.

 

SEASONALITY: THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK IS GENERALLY BULLISH

 

See 03/12 Market Recap for details.

 

CYCLE ANALYSIS: EXPECT A CYCLE TOP WITHIN THIS WEEK

 

See 03/12 Market Recap for details.

 

There’re 3 cycles due today, all look like a top.

 

1.0.7 SPX Cycle Watch (Daily). The chart below has removed all other cycles that are not related to nowadays for cleaner views.

 

SPXDailyCycle.png

 

1.0.8 SPX Cycle Watch (Moon Phases).

 

SPXCycleMoonPhases.png

 

1.0.9 SPX Cycle Watch (60 min). The chart below has removed all other cycles that are not related to nowadays for cleaner views.

 

SPX60minCycle.png

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT CORRECTION TO CONFORM THE PAST II PATTERN, NOT SURE WHEN IT STARTS

 

See 03/12 Market Recap for details.

 

SHORT-TERM: SPX PULLBACK IN 3 DAYS FOR 40 PLUS POINTS?

 

今天SPX虽然最终收绿了,不过Daily图不是很好看。0.0.5 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals,QQQQ daily chart更明显些,2 reversal bars in a row,多少应该mean something哈。

 

QQQQShortTerm.png

 

下面的图标出了历次QQQQ black bar plus confirmed by a red day the next day后的情形。除了一次例外,基本上都离short-term top不远了。上面的table,大家都看了,很多top signs,如果明天再涨的话,可能会更多,因此我认为这次是那次例外的可能性比较小。

 

QQQQBlackBarPlusRedBar.png

 

下面的图纯粹是speculation,for fun only,标题那么写,就是想引大家来看,呵呵,因为这么天天涨下去,大概胡同很快就要关门了,谁还分析大盘哈,天天涨就是了。不过the bottom line,至少pullback是近在眼前了。基本论据是这次的rally和去年七月份的差不多,目前都经历了25 trading day,但是从幅度上讲,这次比七月份弱很多,因此既然七月份是第28个trading day开始回调40点左右,那么这次我们应该也可能在28个trading day以内,回调大于40点,这就是说最迟周四开始回调。

 

SPXRallyCompare.png

 

今天的After Bell Quick Summary提到SPY up 12 days in a row,平了历史纪录。下面的图是1995年SPY创纪录时的情形。for info only,不想暗示什么。

 

SPY1995.png

 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

 

Looks like it’s too late to long stocks now as the market is way too overbought. Waiting for a better chance.

 

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发表于 2010-3-15 08:41 PM | 显示全部楼层
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

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发表于 2010-3-15 08:41 PM | 显示全部楼层
搞个板凳

谢谢班长
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发表于 2010-3-15 08:41 PM | 显示全部楼层
shafa mei le!
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发表于 2010-3-15 08:43 PM | 显示全部楼层
1st page
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发表于 2010-3-15 08:45 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2010-3-15 08:46 PM | 显示全部楼层
先顶后看
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发表于 2010-3-15 08:47 PM | 显示全部楼层
不错,主席台前排就坐.谢谢老蛇.
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发表于 2010-3-15 08:49 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2010-3-15 08:50 PM | 显示全部楼层
1st page
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发表于 2010-3-15 08:51 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2010-3-15 08:57 PM | 显示全部楼层
thanks, I think the past 25-days rally was made by professional traders, a lot of cash just sit sideline, that is why the volumn is low
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发表于 2010-3-15 08:58 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2010-3-15 09:00 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2010-3-15 09:00 PM | 显示全部楼层
Thanks as always!
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发表于 2010-3-15 09:01 PM | 显示全部楼层
明天就是FED Day了, fasten seat belt and sit tight.
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发表于 2010-3-15 09:01 PM | 显示全部楼层
thanks!
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发表于 2010-3-15 09:03 PM | 显示全部楼层
回复 1# Cobra


    thanks thanks
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发表于 2010-3-15 09:04 PM | 显示全部楼层
Thanks!
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发表于 2010-3-15 09:05 PM | 显示全部楼层
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