03/16/2010 大盘回顾 （Bears Not Over Yet）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 3 of 6 are OVERBOUGHT SPY ST Model is in BUY mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 4 of 6 are NEUTRAL

ATTENTION 2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Negative divergence. 03/11 Market Recap: AAII too few bears. Bulls are rising rapidly. 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): Non confirmation between SOX and COMPQ. 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: Non confirmation among TRAN, INDU, SPX and CRB. BULLISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 119.42. BEARISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): 15 unfilled gaps. (max was 15) 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): 9 unfilled gaps. (max was 9) 2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume: Topped? 2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: NYHGH too high. 03/08 Market Recap: Institutional Distribution is too low. 0.0.1 Market Top/Bottom Watch: NYDNV too low. 0.0.6 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals: NAADV MA(10) too high. 0.0.9 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Topped? 0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE MA(10) too low. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: NYHILO too high. CONCLUSION Could short after seeing a daily reversal bar (Open > Close), for aggressive traders only. Reversal bar triggered on 03/12, good luck bears!

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 02/26 L *03/03 low *Adjust stop loss. Reversal Bar 02/26 L *03/15 low *Adjust stop loss. NYMO Sell       VIX MA ENV

OTHER ETFs COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ 0.0.5 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals: *ChiOsc too high. IWM CHINA Big red bar usually means more pullback ahead. EMERGING CANADA *ChiOsc too high. 1.5.2 TSE McClellan Oscillator: A little bit negative divergence, be careful. FINANCIALS REITS MATERIALS OIL & ENERGY Broadening Top in the forming on XLE, the breakout direction is unknown. 2 reversal bars, could pullback. GOLD & GDX BIOTECH Black bar at new high doesn’t look good. DOLLAR Head and Shoulders Bottom. ChiOsc too low. BOND

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
*Skip the SEASONALITY and CYCLE ANALYSIS sessions below if you think they’re superstitious.

 

SEASONALITY: THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK IS GENERALLY BULLISH

 

See 03/12 Market Recap for details.

 

CYCLE ANALYSIS: EXPECT A CYCLE TOP WITHIN THIS WEEK

 

See 03/12 Market Recap for details.

 

昨天提到的cycle，今天还有效，还是top的样子。

 

1.0.7 SPX Cycle Watch (Daily). The chart below has removed all other cycles that are not related to nowadays for cleaner views.

 

 

1.0.9 SPX Cycle Watch (60 min). The chart below has removed all other cycles that are not related to nowadays for cleaner views.

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT CORRECTION TO CONFORM THE PAST II PATTERN, NOT SURE WHEN IT STARTS

 

See 03/12 Market Recap for details.

 

SHORT-TERM: COULD BE A LITTLE WEAKNESS TOMORROW MORNING

 

那个，啥，小声的喊一嗓子，熊熊没完yet。

1. 上面的图看了吧？Cycle top今天依然有效。
2. Gann Day是16，17，18三天，so才开始。见03/12 Market Recap。
3. Seasonality讲，明天是三月份最后一天bullish，以后就不怎么好玩了。也见03/12 Market Recap。
4. 下面的图昨天show过，QQQQ黑棒棒加红棒棒并不是说马上就是top，看篮圈圈，so far符合过去的pattern，所以again，没完yet。

 

1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min)，ChiOsc有点高，此外收盘前VIX急涨，因此至少明天早盘会比较弱。

 

 

山寨Gann，for fun only哈。以02/05 low为起点，求Gann Square of Nine，SPX今天正好停在315度强阻力带，加上上面说的，03/16, 03/17, 03/18是Gann Day (Potential turning day)，按Gann theory就是时间和价格都到位了，因此这里应该是个turning point，we’ll see。

 

 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

 

Looks like it’s too late to long stocks now as the market is way too overbought. Waiting for a better chance.

 

Summerrose

沙发！！！！！

Summerrose

Summerrose

Summerrose

:(127):

zhang

Thank you.

X中国陆军

Summerrose

Summerrose

darren168

Thanks

happyface

thanks

xiaoyaoxl

顶

heaven

spo

抢个沙发！

LLN

soulvirus

thx

t-k

oda

thanks

hillcrest

thanks boss.

hillcrest

cheer up, bears!