03/17/2010 大盘回顾 （What does NYHGH new high mean?）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 3 of 6 are OVERBOUGHT SPY ST Model is in BUY mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 4 of 6 are NEUTRAL

ATTENTION 2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Negative divergence. 03/11 Market Recap: AAII too few bears. Bulls are rising rapidly. 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): Non confirmation between SOX and COMPQ. BULLISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 119.42. 2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: *NYHGH new high means SPX new high ahead. BEARISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): *16 unfilled gaps. (max was 15) 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): *10 unfilled gaps. (max was 9) 03/08 Market Recap: Institutional Distribution is too low. 0.0.1 Market Top/Bottom Watch: NYDNV too low. 0.0.6 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals: NAADV MA(10) too high. 0.0.9 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Topped? 0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE MA(10) too low. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: NYHILO too high. 03/17 Market Recap: *Dumb money confidence too high. 03/17 Market Recap: *Too many bearish extremes among all sentimentrader indicators. CONCLUSION Could short after seeing a daily reversal bar (Open > Close), for aggressive traders only. Reversal bar triggered on 03/12, good luck bears! *03/17, be prepared for being wrong, at least no average down here.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 02/26 L 03/03 low Reversal Bar 02/26 L 03/15 low NYMO Sell       VIX MA ENV

OTHER ETFs COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ 0.0.5 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals: ChiOsc too high. IWM CHINA EMERGING CANADA 1.5.2 TSE McClellan Oscillator: A little bit negative divergence. FINANCIALS REITS MATERIALS OIL & ENERGY Broadening Top in the forming on XLE, the breakout direction is unknown. GOLD & GDX BIOTECH Black bar at new high doesn’t look good. DOLLAR Head and Shoulders Bottom. ChiOsc too low. BOND

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
*Skip the SEASONALITY and CYCLE ANALYSIS sessions below if you think they’re superstitious.

 

SEASONALITY: THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK IS GENERALLY BULLISH

 

See 03/12 Market Recap for details.

 

CYCLE ANALYSIS: EXPECT A CYCLE TOP WITHIN THIS WEEK

 

See 03/12 Market Recap for details. The SPX daily cycle mentioned yesterday, still valid and look like a top. See 1.0.7 SPX Cycle Watch (Daily).

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT CORRECTION TO CONFORM THE PAST II PATTERN, NOT SURE WHEN IT STARTS

 

See 03/12 Market Recap for details.

 

SHORT-TERM: MYHGH NEW HIGH MEANS A NEW HIGH AHEAD BUT COULD BE A LITTLE WEAKNESS IN VERY SHORT-TERM

 

今天又有几个top signs，此外，有很多数据统计也指向short-term pullback (Intermediate-term is up however)，不过so far nothing works。因为TA是base在history repeats itself的基础上的，而我们现在正在创造历史，as so far SPY up 14 days in a row，所以我已经不sure上面table里那么多bearish signals啥时候会工作了，因此如果你是根据我table中的推荐，03/12收盘前short，而03/15没有cover的话，建议设好stop loss，轻易不要average down了。任何时候，risk control是第一位的，trading是没有sure thing的，不管有多少过去很有效的信号support your view。

 

今天的After Bell Quick Summary提到了NYHGH (NYSE 52 Week Highs) the 5th record high了，报告一贴出来，马上就有童鞋comment，说是这意味着new high ahead。不错，下面是局部放大的图，过去的pattern，一般是NYHGH形成negative divergence以后才有希望a little bigger pullback，而我们现在并不能排除明天NYHGH又有new high的可能。当然，从图上看，假设今天就是NYHGH highest point的话，短期内SPX是会close在今天的close以下的。

 

 

其他没啥，今天sentimentrader的两个最重要的indicator也都bearish extreme了，还是说short-term会有pullback。此外，昨天的报告里也提到了，seasonality wise，今天是三月份最后一天bullish了(See 03/12 Market Recap)，后面的日子，至少统计上不好玩，如果统计还work的话。

 

 

QQQQ black bar confirmed by a red bar the next day pattern，现在看起来还是有效，let’s see tomorrow。

 

 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

 

Looks like it’s too late to long stocks now as the market is way too overbought. Waiting for a better chance.

Summerrose

:(13):
沙发,沙发,连续两天沙发!
堪比spy14连阳!

Summerrose

:(13):

Summerrose

IMeMyself

first page

Summerrose

X中国陆军

Cool

X中国陆军

xiaoyaoxl

先顶后看

LLN

outer

Thanks

MtlJaysFan

Thanks

happyface

thanks

NZX

沙发,沙发,连续两天沙发!
堪比spy14连阳!
Summerrose 发表于 2010-3-17 20:31

拜托，连强14天沙发，俺想看SPY26连阳。拜托

falcone

多谢

想发

sooners

回复 1# Cobra


   

ppteam

老蛇以后好像是无脑BUY DIP，慢慢SCALE IN.

azure4068

沙发,沙发,连续两天沙发!
堪比spy14连阳!
Summerrose 发表于 2010-3-17 20:31

这个确实很难！！！

globe