03/19/2010 大盘回顾 （Bearish Engulfing means bullish Monday?）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 3 of 6 are OVERBOUGHT SPY ST Model is in BUY mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL

ATTENTION 2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Negative divergence. 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): Non confirmation between SOX and COMPQ. BULLISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 119.42. 2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: NYHGH new high means SPX new high ahead. BEARISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): *15 unfilled gaps. (max was 16) 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): *9 unfilled gaps. (max was 10) 0.0.9 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Top signal triggered. CPCE MA(5) too low. 0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE MA(10) too low. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: NYHILO too high. 03/17 Market Recap: Dumb money confidence too high. 03/17 Market Recap: Too many bearish extremes among all sentimentrader indicators. CONCLUSION Bearish signals are accumulated enough to justify a short sell. for aggressive traders only. *03/19, Bearish Engulfing, could be another short sell chances, good luck bears!

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 02/26 L *03/09 low *Adjust Stop Loss. Reversal Bar 02/26 L *03/19 low *Adjust Stop Loss. NYMO Sell     *Short if Open > Close on Monday. VIX MA ENV     OTHER ETFs MID TERM SHORT TERM COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ UP ? 0.0.5 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals: *Bearish Engulfing. IWM UP *DOWN *Bearish Engulfing. CHINA DOWN ? EMERGING ? *DOWN CANADA UP DOWN 4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): *2 Doji under important resistance. Lots of negative divergence plus BPTSX is overbought which had led to a 2 weeks pullbacks in the past. FINANCIALS UP ? REITS UP ? MATERIALS ? *DOWN OIL & ENERGY ? *DOWN GOLD & GDX DOWN *DOWN DOLLAR UP UP Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $24.28. BOND DOWN UP *Could pullback soon as it hits resistance and ChiOsc is too high.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: WEEK AFTER TRIPLE WITCHING, DOW DOWN 15 OF LAST 22

 

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. March historically weak later in the month;
2. The next week Dow down 15 of last 22. Please refer to 03/12 Market Recap for the March seasonality chart, by the way.

关于seasonality，我想强调的是三月是著名的反转月。既然统计上，上面说了，historically weak later in the month，而最近的疯长，又积累了无数的top信号(see table above)，那就要小心形成intermediate-term top的可能。6.5.0 March Pivot Watch，非常有意思，自2000年以来，几乎每个不少于6.5%的swing都是从三月份开始的，除了2006年以外。

 

 

CYCLE ANALYSIS: COULD BE A CYCLE TOP WITH MINIMUM 6.5% DOWN SWING

 

上面的seasonality分析了三月变盘的可能性，cycle也支持这种说法。

 

03/12 Market Recap指出了Gann Day集中于03/16 to 03/21, so far SPX new high was on 03/17，也就是说Gann Day有可能会对。

 

1.0.7 SPX Cycle Watch (Daily)，依然有效，这个cycle top，如果最终被证明是正确的话，将意味着有至少6.5%的swing，跟上面提到的6.5.0 March Pivot Watch不谋而合。

 

 

4.1.9 SPX Cycle Watch (Weekly)，也是说本周或者下周可能转折。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD

 

中期的看法还是基于II Survery看correction的人太多，因此会大反弹然后才可能有比较大的correction。Market到目前都符合这个pattern，因此现在至少还不能指着我的鼻子说这个判断是放尸比。下面是最新的II survey chart，注意历次红线的pattern。

 

 

4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm，overall，我比较倾向于market repeats year 2004的roller coaster swing。理由是目前的resistance是具有历史意义的地方，不是那么容易就能冲过去的，而且NYHILO也太高了，看红虚线，前三次这么高，此后的pullback都不小。

 

 

4.1.3 Volatility Index (Weekly)，VIX目前的位置是strong support，应该不容易下破，这个confirm with the 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm chart above。

 

 

SHORT-TERM: EXPECT MORE PULLBACKS BUT MAY SEE HUGE RALLY ON MONDAY

 

短期，应该所有的人都看到Bearish Engulfing了，这个candlestick pattern的准确率有79%。不过，有个小trick，不知道有多少人注意了？0.0.5 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals，看一下历次Bearish Engulfing以后都发生了啥？考虑到著名的very very bullish Monday (6.5.2 Weekday Seasonality Watch)，因此周一让熊熊大吃一惊的可能性还是很高的，当然，周二多半就该轮到牛牛掉眼镜了。Well, we’ll see。

 

 

6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch，周五触发了个short sell的信号，和NYMO SELL setup是同一个原理，不过NYMO SELL setup还要求周一Open > Close to confirm the entry。这个setup的winning rate是65%，gain/loss ratio则相当高，达到5以上，因此是非常不错的。

 

 

如果下周开始真的有pullback的话，target至少是40点左右。理由是和July rally对比，明显的这次rally比较弱，既然July rally都有40点的pullback，那么logically，这次我们至少也该有40点。

	JULY RALLY	NOW
TRADING DAYS FROM LOW TO HIGH	23	28?
TOTAL POINTS GAINED	149	125?
PULLBACK AT N TRADING DAYS	28	29?
TOTAL PULLBACK POINTS	40	?

 

 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

 

Looks like it’s too late to long stocks now as the market is way too overbought. Waiting for a better chance.

q13117

Ding, First sofa ???

q13117

Thanks! Cobra, Bench ???

darren168

1st page

poohbear

thanks and ding

ranchgirl

Great!

dividend_growth

板凳！

impresario100

Jeff

thresh74

Thanks a lot.  LaoDa

Jeff

"因此周一让熊熊大吃一惊的可能性还是很高的..."

Thanks

开小差

thx, ding

cartier

rosyrosy

newnewhand

LadyLucy

happyface

谢谢老大,你的报告实在写的太好了.一目了然.

6th-Sense

 
TREND INDICATOR
MOMENTUM INDICATOR
COMMENT (Click link to see chart)

Long ...
Cobra 发表于 2010-3-20 20:06

    周一往上翘翘，就好比杨争宁同志新婚之夜。。。

alittlebit

 
TREND INDICATOR
MOMENTUM INDICATOR
COMMENT (Click link to see chart)

Long ...
Cobra 发表于 2010-3-20 20:06

xiaoyaoxl

先顶后看