03/22/2010 大盘回顾 （Bullish Reversal!）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL

ATTENTION 2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Negative divergence. 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): Non confirmation between SOX and COMPQ. BULLISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 119.42. 2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: NYHGH new high means SPX new high ahead. BEARISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): 15 unfilled gaps. (max was 16) 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): 9 unfilled gaps. (max was 10) 0.0.9 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Top signal triggered. CPCE MA(5) too low. 0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE MA(10) too low. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: NYHILO too high. 03/17 Market Recap: Dumb money confidence too high. 03/17 Market Recap: Too many bearish extremes among all sentimentrader indicators. 2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume: *A little too high. 6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: *VIX to VXV ratio is way too low. CONCLUSION Bearish signals are accumulated enough to justify a short sell. for aggressive traders only. 03/19, Bearish Engulfing, could be another short sell chances, good luck bears!

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 02/26 L 03/09 low Reversal Bar 02/26 L   *Stopped out of long position with gains. NYMO Sell     *Sell signal not confirmed. VIX MA ENV     OTHER ETFs MID TERM SHORT TERM COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ UP ? IWM UP ? CHINA DOWN ? EMERGING ? ? CANADA UP ? 4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): 2 Doji under important resistance. Lots of negative divergence plus BPTSX is overbought which had led to a 2 weeks pullbacks in the past. FINANCIALS UP ? REITS UP ? MATERIALS ? ? OIL & ENERGY ? ? GOLD & GDX DOWN DOWN DOLLAR UP ? Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $24.28. BOND DOWN UP Could pullback soon as it hits resistance and ChiOsc is too high.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: WEEK AFTER TRIPLE WITCHING, DOW DOWN 15 OF LAST 22, ALSO MARCH IS KNOWN AS A TURNING MONTH

CYCLE ANALYSIS: COULD BE A CYCLE TOP WITH MINIMUM 6.5% DOWN SWING

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD

See 03/19 Market Recap for more details.

 

SHORT-TERM: BULLISH REVERSAL! MARKET COULD REBOUND FURTHER IF NO BIG DOWN TOMORROW

 

今天的After Bell Quick Summary已经提到了，今天的大涨so far符合过去post Bearish Engulfing day pattern，按照这个pattern，明天应该开跌，如果明天不跌的话，那就会盘整（小涨）几天后再跌。

 

 

我目前倾向于盘整（小涨）几天后跌，因为post Bearish Engulfing day pattern毕竟是speculation，我们还得尊重chart。今天的daily chart到处都是bullish reversal bar，因此大盘继续上涨的可能性很大。2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily)，蓝框框，看一下过去几次VIX bearish reversal bar以后发生的事情。当然，最下面的VIX to VXV ratio太低了，并不支持大涨，有兴趣的可以看看longer history view on 6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals.

 

 

如果大盘选择继续上涨，那么可能会涨到03/25附近。见下图，对2007 all time high到2009 March low做Fib extension，可以看到所有的Fib节点，25%, 38.2%, 50% and 61.8%都是重要的转折点，因此大盘在03/25的Fib 75%发生转折的可能很大。当然，大盘明天选择向下，幅度很大的话，那就可能是跌到03/25附近反弹。

 

 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

 

Looks like it’s too late to long stocks now as the market is way too overbought. Waiting for a better chance.

 

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回复 1# Cobra


    thanks and

abaqus

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赌：$SPX涨跌，周二 3/23/2010


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读完老蛇的报告，快去赌版投票、下注！


赌：$SPX涨跌，周二 3/23/2010


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